959
FXUS62 KMHX 101900
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
300 PM EDT Sun Aug 10 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Widespread showers across the region into Monday as coastal
trough and warm front lifts through. More typical summertime
weather regime returns from Tuesday onward with scattered
afternoon showers and storms.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Expect current widespread showers to dissipate
with loss of heating this evening, likely blossoming again
offshore again late tonight then pushing towards the coast by
sunrise. Threat for fog/low stratus for inland areas, esp for
areas that received widespread rain today. Capped vsbys above 1
mile, but could be locally dense esp if convective debris clouds
dissipate later.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Morning low clouds and fog will slowly lift as
next round of showers advances through ENC during the day. Kept
thunder in the chc range with 60-80% showers, as long skinny
CAPE profiles suggest mainly showers with some embedded thunder.
PW`s rise into the 2.10 - 2.25" range, with the threat for
localized flooding anywhere across ENC. Heavy rain threat will
be highest for coastal counties in the morning hours, then
transition inland in the afternoon. Marginal ERO continues for
all of ENC Mon.

&&

.LONG TERM /MONDAY NIGHT THROUGH SUNDAY/...
As of 215 AM Sun...

Key Messages

 - Slightly below average temperatures shift back to more
climatological normals by mid-week.

 - Climatologically normal chances of precipitation return by mid-
week.

High pressure will gradually break down and move offshore
Tuesday through the rest of the week, and a more typical summer
pattern will develop as the offshore trough is kicked out to
sea. More typical, limited coverage precip chances expected from
here as ridging and subsidence strengthen. Exception may be on
Thursday as a weak front approaches the area, but forcing with
this feature appears negligible enough to make little difference
in convective coverage. Continued to adjust NBM guidance
downward to more typical climo PoPs (30-40%). Temperatures
return to around to slightly above average, and combined with
increasing humidity peak heat indices hover around 100- 105
degrees.

&&

.AVIATION /19Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through Mon AM/...
As of 2 PM Sun...Expect cigs to bounce between VFR and MVFR
through the day as scattered to numerous showers abound. Rain
threat dissipates by early evening, with lingering clouds
between 2-4k ft. Guidance suggest another round of IFR clouds
and possibly vsbys late tonight into Mon morning with nerly flow
continuing. Another round of showers will spread through much of
ENC through the day Mon, with cigs slowly lifting to MVFR by
afternoon.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 210 AM Sun...Climatologically normal coverage is
forecast from Tues onward. Threat of low stratus and some fog
continues each morning, with strongest signals both Mon and Tues
mornings.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Mon/...
As of 3 PM Sun...Winds light erly to nerly in the 5-10 kt range,
and will cont this way through tonight. Winds light/var on Mon
as coastal trough and warm front lift into the coastal waters
and sounds. Another round of showers with a storm or two late
tonight into Mon AM with the trough and front lingering.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Thursday/...
As of 215 AM Sun...More typical southwesterly winds by Tuesday
onward as high pressure moves offshore. Winds through the period
stay at 10-15 kt and seas will hold steady at around 2-3 feet.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...Beach Hazards Statement until 8 PM EDT this evening for NCZ203-
     205.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...TL
SHORT TERM...TL
LONG TERM...MS/RCF
AVIATION...TL/MS
MARINE...TL/MS