860
FXUS62 KMHX 291752
AFDMHX

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Newport/Morehead City NC
152 PM EDT Sun Jun 29 2025

.SYNOPSIS...
Typical summertime pattern will remain in place over the next
couple of days, with high pressure offshore and troughing inland.
The next frontal system approaches the east coast by the middle of
the week.

&&

.NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime pattern with widely scattered
   thunderstorms and 100 to 105 degree heat indices

Visible satellite imagery and lightning probability guidance
reveal gradually deepening cumulus developing within a broad
zone of confluent flow across ENC at this time. Meanwhile,
regional radar shows widely scattered showers developing.
Slightly higher boundary layer moisture and warmth today
(compared to yesterday) is likely helping fuel the earlier onset
of convective initiation this afternoon. Deep layer shear will
continue to be weak, but where convergence is the strongest and
most persistent, there will be a pulse-type strong to marginally
severe thunderstorm potential. A deep layer of moisture should
aid in the potential for water-loaded downdrafts, with updrafts
supported by moderate instability of 2000- 3000j/kg MLCAPE.
Based on this, the strongest, and most persistent, updrafts
should be capable of 40-60 mph wind gusts and perhaps some small
hail (less than penny size). The afternoon convection should be
diurnally driven, with a decreasing risk expected after sunset.

Despite hot temperatures and higher dewpoints today, the
earlier onset of cloudcover and convection should temper highs
some, and it appears most of the area will stay just below 105
degree heat indices. For this reason, we`ll continue to run with
no heat headlines.

&&

.SHORT TERM /MONDAY THROUGH MONDAY NIGHT/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime temperatures and thunderstorm chances
   continue

The overall synoptic pattern doesn`t look to change much as we
kick off the start of the July 4th holiday week. This should
lead to another day of near normal temperatures and humidity,
with heat indices of 100-105 degrees, and isolated
afternoon/evening thunderstorms. Of note, guidance suggests
somewhat lower convergence across the area, and along the
seabreeze, compared to today, and I expect the coverage to
follow suite. I would also expect a lowered risk of pulse severe
convection, as the risk of deep, sustained convection appears
lower.

One subtle change on Monday is a regional tightening of the
pressure gradient as a weak frontal boundary begins to approach
the U.S. East Coast. This tightened gradient should help boost
winds over waterways and for areas along the coast. While not
drastically higher, the increased wind will probably be
noticeable at area beaches and for boaters. With the increase in
winds, lows Monday night are expected to be very warm, with
lows near 80 along the coast, and upper 70s inland.

&&

.LONG TERM /TUESDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/...
As of 5 AM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Hot conditions continue with heat indices 100-105F Tuesday
   afternoon

 - Frontal system approaching the eastern seaboard Tuesday-
   Wednesday increases rain chances mid-week, and could bring
   heavy rain, frequent lightning, and gusty winds.

 - High pressure builds in late week, bringing back the typical
   summertime pattern with sea breeze convection and warmer
   temps

Ridging strengthens offshore, as highs persist in the low to
mid 90s, with heat indices 100-105F likely through Tuesday. The
cumulative effect of several days with high heat indices (and
little relief at night) is something for those working or
spending much time outside to consider as they make preparations
for the heat.

On Tuesday, a cold front should be progressing through western
and central NC. Along this front there will be 1000-2000 J/kg
MLCAPE over central NC, with almost 20kt of deep layer shear and
PWATs well above climo. Long skinny CAPE profiles with enough
shear for organized storm development will result in heavy rain
potential with maybe some stronger wind gusts as well. Most of
the frontal precip Tuesday should remain to our west, maybe
reaching our western most coastal plain counties in the evening.
With better upper level support to the north and west and
unimpressive shear paired with weaker than recently seen CAPEs,
at this point not too concerned about the severe potential
Tuesday evening for our CWA, although SPC does clip our western
zones in a marginal (1/5) risk for Tuesday. Meanwhile, Tuesday a
tightened pressure gradient with the high offshore and the
front approaching from the west will result in a very gusty day
along the coast. With a loss of daytime heating Tuesday night,
storm coverage and intensity is expected to lessen as the front
slowly shifts east.

Wednesday, front comes to a halt over eastern NC, and this will
be the day to watch out for in our CWA should the current trend
hold. Lesser coverage and intensity of precip in the morning
will quickly reinvigorate once we get some daytime heating in
the late morning and afternoon hours. Moist, skinny CAPE
profiles (1000-2000 J/kg) and slow storm motion along a
stationary boundary is a great setup for heavy rain and flash
flooding concerns Wednesday PM. WPC has us in a day 4
(Wednesday) marginal (1/5) ERO generally along and east of hwy
17, where instability along and east of the stalled front is the
best. Severe potential remains limited with weaker shear and
profiles not really conducive to microbursts. Long range
ensemble probs are generally suggesting 1-2" of rain over our
CWA, but at this point these estimates hold little value given
the coarse nature of the models. Over the coming days once more
high-rest guidance is available the envelope of QPF ranges will
be more apparent.

Front may linger along the coast Thursday as it slowly moves
east, keeping chc PoPs in place. Meanwhile, a weak low may form
up along the stalled boundary as it encounters warmer gulf
stream waters, as the baroclinic zone provides enough
cyclogenesis. As the weak low quickly progresses N and E away
from our coast, high pressure builds in with a more typical
summertime pattern returning to ENC to end the work week with
sea breeze convection and warm temps.

&&

.AVIATION /18Z SUNDAY THROUGH FRIDAY/...
SHORT TERM /through 18z Monday/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - SCT TSRA risk this afternoon and early evening (20-30% chance)

 - Low risk for sub VFR VIS tonight (10-20% chance)

Typical summertime conditions continue, with SCT TSRA, a wind
shift along the seabreeze, and predominantly VFR conditions. As
of this writing, the seabreeze has yet to reach any of the ENC
TAF sites, therefore I`ve gone ahead and added a PROB30 for all
TAF sites through early this evening. TEMPO or prevailing TSRA
may need to be added based on radar and satellite trends. After
sunset, the TSRA risk should quickly decrease. Later tonight
into early Monday morning, probabilistic guidance suggests a low
risk of BR/FG, mainly in/around KOAJ. Due to the low
probability, I left out any mention in the TAFs, but we`ll
continue to monitor this potential through the night.

LONG TERM /Monday night through Friday/...
As of 530 AM Sunday...Tuesday through Thursday a stalled cold
front will be impacting the region, bringing chances for sub-VFR
ceilings, heavy rain, and tstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
SHORT TERM /through Monday night/...
As of 200 PM Sunday...

Key Messages

 - Typical summertime boating conditions through early Monday

 - Winds and seas begin to build late Monday into Monday night

Typical summertime boating conditions are expected through
early Monday, with scattered thunderstorms over the inland
rivers and sounds during the day, transitioning back offshore by
tonight. South to southwesterly winds of 10-20kt will be
common, with seas of 2-4 ft.

Conditions begin to change on Monday as a weak cold front
begins to approach the Eastern U.S. from the west. This should
enhance the summertime thermal gradient, leading to an increased
risk of 25kt winds for a portion of the ENC waters, especially
Monday afternoon through Monday night. Marine headlines may
eventually be needed should guidance continue to show a strong
signal for 25kt winds. With the increased winds, seas are
expected to build to 3-5 ft by Monday evening.

LONG TERM /Tuesday though Friday/...
As of 530 AM Sunday...

Key Messages:

- Strong wind gusts 15-30kt and seas building to 4-7 ft along
  waters Tuesday through Tuesday night

- Heavy rain and tstorms expected to slowly move through the
  region Tuesday night through Wednesday

Tuesday pressure gradient tightens with high strengthening
offshore and approaching cold front, and wind gusts pick up to
become 15-30kt out of the S/SW and seas respond to be 4-7 ft.
Trended winds up by near 5 kts Tuesday night with this update,
well above NBM, with ensemble guidance and deterministic models
all keying in on stronger wind gusts. Of note, ECMWF ensemble
guidance gives a 20-30% chance of gale force gusts developing
along the Pamlico Sound Tuesday night. Winds die down Wednesday
as stalled front is overhead, but this brings heavy rain and
thunderstorms with it. Thursday PM precip is finally expected to
shift well offshore, and high pressure builds in bringing more
pleasant conditions beyond Thursday.

&&

.MHX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
NC...None.
MARINE...None.

&&

$$

SYNOPSIS...MHX
NEAR TERM...RM
SHORT TERM...RM
LONG TERM...RJ
AVIATION...RM/RJ
MARINE...RM/RJ