185
FNUS76 KMFR 160322
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for MOUNTAIN...MODOC NF
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
822 PM PDT Fri Aug 15 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 0800 PDT on August 16.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

.DISCUSSION...A frontal system will bring scattered showers and also
some thunderstorms around the area late Saturday afternoon and evening.
The air mass with this system is very moist for mid-August, so storms
should be efficient rain producers should they move overhead. Rain
amounts given are an average, but local amounts in storm cores could
reach more than 1.00". Showers persist Saturday night and there`s still
enough instability for a pop-up shower or thunderstorm on Sunday. After
that, things trend drier and warmer through mid-week and it will be hot
again by Thu/Fri.

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Some morning sun, then becoming mostly cloudy.
                    Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in
                    the late afternoon. Rain amount: Trace-0.10".
Chance of lightning.20 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 77.
Min humidity........40-50 percent.
Eye level winds.....Variable 1-2 mph early, then WSW 3-5 mph by 1100
                    increasing to 6-10 mph in the afternoon and
                    shifting to WNW by 1700. Gusts to 18 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable 2-6 mph early, then WSW 6-11 mph by 1300
                    increasing to 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph
                    during the afternoon. Winds gusty and erratic near
                    any thunderstorm.
CWR.................12 percent.

.SATURDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy with showers; a slight chance of
                    thunderstorms in the evening. Rain amount: 0.10-
                    0.20".
Chance of lightning.21 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 55.
Max humidity........90-100 percent.
Eye level winds.....NW 5-8 mph with gusts to 13 mph in the evening,
                    then W 1-3 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........NW 9-14 mph with gusts to 21 mph in the evening,
                    then W 2-6 mph overnight. Winds gusty and erratic
                    near any thunderstorm in the evening.
CWR.................31 percent.

.SUNDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sun and clouds with a slight chance of a shower
                    or thunderstorm.
Chance of lightning.16 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 80.
Min humidity........30-35 percent.
Eye level winds.....Light and variable becoming SW 3-7 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts to 15 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Variable 1-3 mph becoming SW 8-13 mph in
                    the afternoon. Gusts to 23 mph. Any thunderstorm
                    can produce gusty outflow winds.
CWR.................17 percent.

$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...MARK MAIN
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2519747.3/MFR
.DELDT 08/16/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL modocecc@gmail.com,mark.main@usda.gov,wesley.breakfield@usda.gov