447
FNUS76 KMFR 202252
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Picture Rock...USDA Forest Service
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
352 PM PDT Thu Aug 20 2026

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1800 PDT on August 20.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...FIRE WEATHER WATCH IN EFFECT FROM SATURDAY AFTERNOON THROUGH
SATURDAY EVENING FOR STRONG GUSTY WIND AND LOW RH...

.DISCUSSION...An offshore trough will impact the region
through Saturday, bringing periods of gusty wind and low RH in the
afternoons. Winds will trend stronger Friday into Saturday with
the worst conditions expected Saturday afternoon/evening over
the area.  Otherwise expect very warm daytime conditions with
moderate recoveries. Thunder potential is very low (5-10%) across
the area on Friday, then shifts northward on Saturday.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent). Patchy smoke overnight.
Chance of lightning.2 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 59.
Max humidity........35 percent.
Eye level winds.....South to southwest 3 to 5 mph with gusts to 8 mph
                    shifting  to northwest 2 to 4 mph late in the
                    evening, then becoming light 0 to 2 mph after
                    midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........South to southwest 7 to 10 mph with gusts to 18 mph
                    shifting to northwest 4 to 9 mph late in the
                    evening, then becoming light and variable
                    1 to 4 mph after midnight.
Mixing height.......400 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 7 to 13 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......MCLDY     CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............89        79        71        65
RH..............13        19        27        32
20 FT wind......S 9G18    SW 8G13   NW 5G7    NW 3G6
Eye level wind..S 4G8     SW 4G6    NW 2G3    NW 1G2
Mix hgt (ft)....9900      700       400       500
Transport wind..SW 13     SW 8      W 8       S 7

.FRIDAY...

Sky/weather.........Cloudy (85-95 percent) then becoming mostly
                    cloudy (75-85 percent).
Chance of lightning.6 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 89.
Min humidity........15 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southeast winds 1 to 3 mph becoming south
                    3 to 5 mph in the early afternoon,  increasing
                    5 to 7 mph with gusts to around 12 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southeast winds 3 to 6 mph becoming south
                    7 to 11 mph in the early afternoon,  increasing
                    10 to 14 mph with gusts to around 24 mph late
                    in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......9800 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....South 6 to 14 mph increasing to 16 to 20 mph
                    late in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 AM      9 AM      NOON      3 PM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY    MCLDY     MCLDY     CLOUDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).0         0         0         0
Temp............59        67        84        89
RH..............35        28        18        15
20 FT wind......S 2G5     SE 2G5    S 7G11   S 12G19
Eye level wind..S 1G2     SE 1G2    S 3G5    S 6G9
Mix hgt (ft)....500       2200      7400      9800
Transport wind..S 7       S 6       S 14      S 20

.FRIDAY NIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (80-90 percent) then becoming
                    partly cloudy (35-45 percent).
Chance of lightning.6 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 57.
Max humidity........48 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 5 to 8 mph with gusts to around
                    12 mph shifting to the southwest 4 to 6 mph early
                    in the evening, becoming northwest 1 to 3 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming southeast
                    1 to 3 mph overnight.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 12 to 16 mph with gusts to around
                    25 mph shifting to the southwest 9 to 12 mph early
                    in the evening, becoming northwest 3 to 7 mph
                    late in the evening, then becoming southeast
                    3 to 7 mph overnight.
Mixing height.......500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 9 to 16 mph.
CWR.................0 percent.

TIME (PDT)      6 PM      9 PM      MIDNGT    3 AM
Sky cover.......CLOUDY    CLOUDY    CLOUDY    MCLDY
Weather cov.....
Weather type....NONE      NONE      NONE      NONE
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0         0         0         0
Chc of ltng (%).10        0         0         0
Temp............87        77        69        61
RH..............17        27        39        45
20 FT wind......S 15G23   SW 11G17  NW 5G7    SE 5G7
Eye level wind..S 7G11    SW 5G8    NW 2G3    SE 2G3
Mix hgt (ft)....9300      800       500       500
Transport wind..S 16      SW 12     SW 9      S 12

$$
Forecaster...CLARSTROM
Requested by...Joel Johnson
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2619993.3/MFR
.DELDT 08/20/26
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL jjohnson@usda.gov,orlfc@firenet.gov