


Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
008 FNUS76 KMFR 232026 FWSMFR Spot Forecast for Summit...USFS National Weather Service MEDFORD OR 126 PM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025 Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 PDT on July 23. If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather Service. ...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS... .DISCUSSION...Temperatures and humidity values will be near normal for the next several days with moderate overnight recoveries along the ridges with better recoveries on the lower slopes. The main concern will be thunderstorm chances -- today, an isolated storm may pop up and move across the fire bringing chances for lightning and gusty winds. Then on Thursday, thunderstorm chances increase with scattered storms possible. These storms may produce brief periods of heavy rainfall that could trigger burn scar flooding or debris flows, especially on steep areas that burned very hot. The main concern with the thunderstorms on Thursday, however, will be the strong gusty winds to 55 mph. While these gusty winds can be found in and near thunderstorms, they will also be capable of traveling great distances from thunderstorms (up to 50 miles), meaning that winds may quickly shift despite thunderstorms appearing to be quite a distance away. .REST OF TODAY... Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny a 20 to 25 percent chance of a shower or thunderstorm. New accumulations up to 0.02 inches possible, except up to a tenth of an inch in a thunderstorm. Strong, quickly shifting winds to 45 mph are possible in and near thunderstorms. Chance of lightning.15 to 20 percent. Max temperature.....70 to 72 degrees. Min humidity........40 to 45 percent. Eye level winds.....Northwest 1 to 3 mph. Wind (20 ft)........Northwest 7 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....West 7 to 8 mph. CWR.................7 percent. .TONIGHT... Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming clear after midnight. A 20 to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms until 11pm. New accumulations up to 0.02 inches possible, except up to a tenth of an inch in a thunderstorm. Strong, quickly shifting winds to 45 mph are possible in and near thunderstorms. Chance of lightning.15 to 20 percent. Min temperature.....55 to 57 degrees. Max humidity........62 to 67 percent. Eye level winds.....West 1 to 3 mph becoming northeast 0 to 1 mph after midnight. Wind (20 ft)........West 5 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph northeast 1 to 3 mph after 3 AM. Mixing height.......0 ft AGL. Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast around 5 mph after midnight. CWR.................0 percent. .THURSDAY... Sky/weather.........Sunny becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of showers and storms from 11AM until 11PM with the peak chances occurring between 1 PM and 9PM. New accumulations of up to a quarter of an inch possible, except up to a half an inch in a thunderstorms. Strong, quickly shifting winds to 55 mph are possible in and near thunderstorms. These strong winds may travel up to 50 mph from a thunderstorm. Chance of lightning.31 percent. Max temperature.....70 to 72 degrees. Min humidity........42 to 47 percent. Eye level winds.....East 0 to 2 mph becoming northwest 1 to 3 mph in the afternoon. Wind (20 ft)........East 2 to 4 mph northwest around 4 to 7 mph with gusts to 12 mph in the afternoon. Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL. Transport winds.....East 5 to 6 mph becoming west to northwest late in the around 9 mph. CWR.................25 percent. $$ Forecaster...SCHAAF Requested by...CAYICC Type of request...WILDFIRE .TAG 2518283.3/MFR .DELDT 07/23/25 .FormatterVersion 2.0.0 .EMAIL cayicc@firenet.gov