008
FNUS76 KMFR 232026
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Summit...USFS
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
126 PM PDT Wed Jul 23 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 1400 PDT on July 23.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT FROM 1 PM TO 11 PM PDT THURSDAY FOR ABUNDANT
LIGHTNING ON DRY FUELS...

.DISCUSSION...Temperatures and humidity values will be near normal for
the next several days with moderate overnight recoveries along the ridges
with better recoveries on the lower slopes. The main concern will be
thunderstorm chances -- today, an isolated storm may pop up and move
across the fire bringing chances for lightning and gusty winds. Then on
Thursday, thunderstorm chances increase with scattered storms possible.
These storms may produce brief periods of heavy rainfall that could trigger
burn scar flooding or debris flows, especially on steep areas that burned
very hot. The main concern with the thunderstorms on Thursday, however, will
be the strong gusty winds to 55 mph. While these gusty winds can be found
in and near thunderstorms, they will also be capable of traveling great
distances from thunderstorms (up to 50 miles), meaning that winds may
quickly shift despite thunderstorms appearing to be quite a distance away.



.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly sunny a 20 to 25 percent chance of a shower
or thunderstorm. New accumulations up to 0.02 inches
possible, except up to a tenth of an inch in a
thunderstorm. Strong, quickly shifting winds to 45
mph are possible in and near thunderstorms.
Chance of lightning.15 to 20 percent.
Max temperature.....70 to 72 degrees.
Min humidity........40 to 45 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest 1 to 3 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest 7 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph
Mixing height.......6500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....West 7 to 8 mph.
CWR.................7 percent.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Partly cloudy becoming clear after midnight. A 20
to 25 percent chance of showers and thunderstorms
until 11pm. New accumulations up to 0.02 inches
possible, except up to a tenth of an inch in a
thunderstorm. Strong, quickly shifting winds to 45
mph are possible in and near thunderstorms.
Chance of lightning.15 to 20 percent.
Min temperature.....55 to 57 degrees.
Max humidity........62 to 67 percent.
Eye level winds.....West 1 to 3 mph becoming northeast 0 to 1 mph after
midnight.
Wind (20 ft)........West 5 to 8 mph with gusts to 12 mph northeast 1 to
3 mph after 3 AM.
Mixing height.......0 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Northwest 6 to 8 mph shifting to the northeast
                    around 5 mph after midnight.
CWR.................0 percent.

.THURSDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny becoming partly sunny. A 30 percent chance of
showers and storms from 11AM until 11PM with the peak
chances occurring between 1 PM and 9PM. New accumulations
of up to a quarter of an inch possible, except up to a half
an inch in a thunderstorms. Strong, quickly shifting winds
to 55 mph are possible in and near thunderstorms. These
strong winds may travel up to 50 mph from a thunderstorm.
Chance of lightning.31 percent.
Max temperature.....70 to 72 degrees.
Min humidity........42 to 47 percent.
Eye level winds.....East 0 to 2 mph becoming northwest 1 to 3 mph in the
afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........East 2 to 4 mph northwest around 4 to 7 mph with gusts
to 12 mph in the afternoon.
Mixing height.......5500 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....East 5 to 6 mph becoming west to northwest late in the
around 9 mph.
CWR.................25 percent.


$$
Forecaster...SCHAAF
Requested by...CAYICC
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2518283.3/MFR
.DELDT 07/23/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL cayicc@firenet.gov