799
FNUS76 KMFR 040238
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Black Canyon...OR-SHR
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
738 PM PDT Thu Jul 3 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2020 PDT on July 03.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 11 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Showers and thunderstorms with gusty and erratic winds
will be most numerous this evening, but could last overnight. Another
round of isolated to scattered thunderstorms is expected on Independence Day.
Even in the absence of thunderstorms, winds will be gusty from the west
tomorrow. Active weather should calm down a bit this weekend. Another low
will move to a position off the NorCal coast by Sunday. Right now,
moisture appears to be a limiting factor for thunderstorms (~5% chance),
but we`ll see how things look and adjust the forecast as we get closer.


.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy (65-75 percent). Scattered
                    showers and thunderstorms early this evening.
                    Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the
                    late evening and overnight. Rain amount: Trace-0.10".
Chance of lightning.30 percent.
Min temperature.....Around 51.
Max humidity........72 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........SW 10-15 mph with gusts to 25 mph easing to 5-10
                    mph overnight. Gusty and erratic winds expected near
                    tonight.
Transport winds.....W 15-20 mph.
CWR.................23 percent.

.INDEPENDENCE DAY...

Sky/weather.........Partly sunny (50-60 percent). Scattered rain
                    showers and isolated thunderstorms through the
                    day.
Chance of lightning.22 percent.
Max temperature.....Around 72.
Min humidity........30 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........W 5-10 mph increasing to 10-20 mph with gusts to 30
                    mph in the afternoon. Gusty and erratic winds expected
                    near thunderstorms.
Transport winds.....WSW around 15-25 mph.
CWR.................9 percent.

$$
Forecaster...SPILDE
Requested by...Zachary Hutchins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517098.1/MFR
.DELDT 07/03/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL christopher_chapple@fws.gov,samuel_tacchini@fws.gov,orlfc@firenet.gov