204
FNUS76 KMFR 221729
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Picture Rock Rx...BLM
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
929 AM PST Fri Nov 22 2024

Forecast is based on ignition time of 1000 PST on November 22.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...HIGH WIND WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 4 PM PST THIS AFTERNOON...

.DISCUSSION...The next storm will bring strong, gusty winds and some
hefty rainfall today. Temperatures will be mild and humidities will be
relatively high. This continues overnight, but snow levels will fall
below the elevation of the burn site, so expect rain to transition to
snow showers, largely after 10 PM. Snow showers will continue into Saturday
morning and diminish through the day. Additionally winds will gradually
diminish overnight into Saturday and eventually shift from southwest to
west by mid morning Saturday.


.REST OF TODAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A 50 percent chance of rain
increasing to a 70 percent chance after 5 pm.
New accumulations up to 0.20 inches possible.
Max temperature.....49 to 50 degrees.
Min humidity........70 to 75 percent.
Eye level winds.....South winds 6 to 12 mph with gusts to 25 mph.
Winds decrease to 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 12 mph
after 4pm.
Wind (20 ft)........South winds 17 to 25 mph. Gusts up to 55 mph
                    decreasing 10 to 15 mph with gusts to 30 mph after
4pm.
Mixing height.......2200 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest 32 to 40 mph becoming south around 18
                    mph late in the afternoon.
CWR.................38 percent increasing to 68 percent late in the
                    afternoon.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. A 70 percent chance of rain and snow
showers. Snow levels drop to below the burn site
elevation after 10 pm. New accumulations up to 0.10
inches and new snow amounts up to a half an inch.
Min temperature.....Around 31 degrees.
Max humidity........85 to 90 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest 3 to 6 mph with gusts to 10 mph.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 10 to 17 mph with gusts to 30 mph
                    decreasing to 21 mph after 3 am.
Mixing height.......Falling to the surface after sunset.
Transport winds.....Southwest 14 to 18 mph.
CWR.................68 percent decreasing to 30 percent after 3 am.


.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy becoming partly sunny. A 55 percent
chance of snow showers in the morning decreasing
to a 15 percent chance of showers after 4 pm. New
snow accumulations up to a 0.75 inches with liquid
accumulations up to 0.05 inches. Snow levels are
forecast to remain below the burn site elevation,
but a mix of rain and snow showers will be possible
in the afternoon.
Max temperature.....36 to 39 degrees.
Min humidity........65 to 70 percent.
Eye level winds.....Southwest winds 2 to 4 mph with gusts to 8 mph
in the afternoon.
Wind (20 ft)........Southwest 8 to 12 mph. Gusts up to 25 mph.
Mixing height.......3600 ft AGL.
Transport winds.....Southwest around 14 mph shifting to the west 16
                    to 24 mph in the late morning and afternoon.
CWR.................30 percent decreasing to 0 percent late in the
                    afternoon.


$$
Forecaster...SCHAAF
Requested by...Matt Haskins
Type of request...PRESCRIBED
.TAG 2426636.4/MFR
.DELDT 11/22/24
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL mhaskins@blm.gov,sthames@blm.gov