Suppression Forecast
Issued by NWS Medford, OR

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678
FNUS76 KMFR 050254
FWSMFR

Spot Forecast for Black Canyon...OR-SHR
National Weather Service MEDFORD OR
754 PM PDT Fri Jul 4 2025

Forecast is based on forecast start time of 2020 PDT on July 04.
If conditions become unrepresentative...contact the National Weather
Service.

...RED FLAG WARNING IN EFFECT UNTIL 8 PM PDT THIS EVENING...

.DISCUSSION...Isolated showers continue in parts of eastern Lake
County, but lightning activity is currently absent. Slight
chances of thunderstorm development remain this evening, but will
be absent by tonight. Stable conditions are expected on Saturday,
bringing warm and dry conditions and an absence of thunderstorm
chances.

A warming trend continues on Sunday and into the upcoming week.
Afternoon and evening thunderstorm chances return for areas east
of the Cascades on Monday and continue into at least midweek.
Currently, the first thunderstorm chances (15-20%) for the spot
location are Wednesday afternoon and evening.

.TONIGHT...

Sky/weather.........Mostly cloudy. Slight chance of isolated
thunderstorms through tonight.
Chance of lightning.10 percent.
Min temperature.....42 to 44 degrees.
Max humidity........84 to 88 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northwest at 16 to 18 mph with evening gusts
up to 26 mph. Gusty and erratic winds are
possible near thunderstorms. Winds become
north at 2 to 4 mphearly Saturday morning.
Transport winds.....North at 10 to 12 mph becoming northwest at
4 to 6 mph early Saturday morning.
CWR.................0 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northwest at 10 to 13 mph with evening gusts
up to 20 mph. Gusty and erratic winds are
possible near thunderstorms. Winds become
north at 1 to 2 mphearly Saturday morning.

TIME (PDT)      6PM 7PM 8PM 9PM 10P 11P MID 1AM 2AM 3AM 4AM 5AM
Sky cover.......MC  MC  MC  MC  MC  MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....SCT SCT SCT SCT SCT
Weather type....RW  RW  RW  RW  RW
Tstm cov........ISO ISO
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).20  20  0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............67  63  58  54  52  52  50  49  48  47  45  43
RH..............36  45  57  67  72  78  81  82  85  87  89  86
20 FT wind dir..NW  W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   W   W   W   N
20 FT wind spd..13  13  12  12  12  8   8   8   2   2   2   1
20 FT wind gust.19  19  18  18  18  13  13  13  5   5   5   4
Eye lvl wnd dir.NW  W   NW  NW  NW  N   N   N   W   W   W   N
Eye lvl wnd spd.5   5   4   4   4   3   3   3   1   1   1   0
Eye lvl wnd gst.7   7   7   7   7   5   5   5   2   2   2   2
Transp wind dir.N   NW  N   N   N   N   N   N   NW  NW  N   N
Transp wind spd.14  14  13  13  13  7   7   7   6   6   6   3

.SATURDAY...

Sky/weather.........Sunny.
Chance of lightning.1 percent.
Max temperature.....74 to 76 degrees.
Min humidity........20 to 23 percent.
Wind (20 ft)........Northeast at 1 to 3 mph becoming east at
2 to 4 mph in the late morning, then becoming
west at 5 to 7 mph in the afternoon.
Transport winds.....Northeast at 4 to 6 mph becoming southwest
at 7 to 9 mph in the afternoon.
CWR.................0 percent.
Eye level winds.....Northeast at 1 to 2 mph becoming east at
1 to 3 mph in the late morning, then becoming
west at 2 to 4 mph in the afternoon.

TIME (PDT)      6AM 7AM 8AM 9AM 10A 11A 12P 1PM 2PM 3PM 4PM 5PM
Sky cover.......PC  PC  MCR CLR CLR CLR CLR MCR MCR MCR MCR MCR
Weather cov.....
Weather type....
Tstm cov........
CWR.............0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Chc of ltng (%).0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0   0
Temp............46  53  55  59  62  64  67  69  71  73  73  76
RH..............86  70  62  55  48  40  36  31  27  25  22  21
20 FT wind dir..N   N   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   W   W   W   NW
20 FT wind spd..1   1   2   2   2   1   1   1   4   4   4   6
20 FT wind gust.4   4   5   5   5   4   4   4   6   6   6   8
Eye lvl wnd dir.N   N   SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   W   W   W   NW
Eye lvl wnd spd.0   0   1   1   1   0   0   0   1   1   1   2
Eye lvl wnd gst.2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   2   3
Transp wind dir.NE  NE  SE  SE  SE  S   S   S   SW  SW  SW  W
Transp wind spd.3   3   5   5   5   6   6   6   7   7   7   8

$$
Forecaster...DALDRUP
Requested by...Zachary Hutchins
Type of request...WILDFIRE
.TAG 2517098.2/MFR
.DELDT 07/04/25
.FormatterVersion 2.0.0
.EMAIL orlfc@firenet.gov,samuel_tacchini@fws.gov,christopher_chapple@fws.gov