621
FXUS66 KMFR 111134
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
434 AM PDT Fri Sep 11 2026

...Updated Aviation Discussion...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Gusty winds and low daytime humidities will bring elevated fire
  weather conditions east of the Cascades this afternoon and
  early this evening.

* Increasing chances of showers/light precipitation on Saturday,
  highest north of OR/CA border and along/west of Cascades. 15-25%
  for thunderstorms from the coast to the Cascades. Chances for
  showers decrease on Sunday.

* Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, with high temperatures
  around 10-15 degrees below normal.

* Strong, gusty winds expected east of Cascades and in the Shasta
  Valley Saturday afternoon and evening.

* A gradual warming trend is expected next week.


&&

.DISCUSSION...A broad upper level trough is over the region. This
will result in temperature trending cooler today with highs in
the mid 70s to mid 80s for most inland valleys. Gusty winds and
dry daytime humidities are expected this afternoon and evening for
areas east of the Cascades, resulting in elevated fire weather
conditions.

A low pressure will shift south along the Pacific Northwest coast
late today and tonight. This low will gradually move inland
Saturday afternoon and Saturday night. This pattern will bring
much cooler temperatures (10-15 degrees below normal) to the area
on Saturday and Sunday. Showers are expected to develop Saturday
and Saturday night. The best chances for showers (50-90%) are
expected on Saturday evening, highest for areas from the Southern
Oregon Cascades west but also extending into portions of Klamath
and Lake counties. Lower chances for showers (10-40%) are expected
across Northern California. As the low moves inland, instability
will increase during the day Saturday. Models and guidance
continue to indicate a low (15-20%) chance for thunderstorms over
the coast waters, along the coast and into Douglas County on
Saturday. For areas east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley,
strong gusty winds are expected Saturday afternoon/evening with
gusts of around 30 to 40 mph. Despite these winds, fire weather
concerns will be mitigated by increasing daytime humidities on
Saturday.

This low shifts east of the area on Sunday and conditions will
trend drier. However, current models and ensembles support low
chances for light showers (15-35%) Sunday morning, especially
across the Southern Oregon Cascades and coastal mountains. Well
below normal temperatures will continue through Sunday, and we`ll
need to monitor the potential for frost/freeze products for
portions of the East Side Sunday morning and again, Monday
morning. Lingering cloud cover may limit areas of frost/freeze on
Sunday morning. Then, with clearing skies Sunday night and
continued cold air in place, chances for frost and freeze increase
for valleys east of the Cascades. Temperatures trend warmer
Monday through late next week with highs expected to be near to
above normal by mid week.

&&

.AVIATION...11/12Z TAFs...This morning LIFR/IFR conditions in
marine stratus will persist along the coast south of Gold Beach as
well as north of Cape Blanco and into the Coquille Valley.
Conditions will improve to VFR around 17-20z.

Inland, expect mainly VFR except for areas MVFR in the Umpqua Valley
between around 12Z-18Z. Roseburg (RBG) has a 30% change for MVFR
ceilings between 13-18Z.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Friday, September 11, 2026...North
winds will bring steep seas to the waters today. Highest seas are
expected south of Nesika Beach and from about 5 to 30 NM from
shore. Winds and seas will subside this evening and into Saturday,
before increasing again late Sunday. Steep seas are possible
Sunday night into early next week, especially south of Cape
Blanco.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this
     afternoon for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$