895
FXUS66 KMFR 061126
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
426 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

A persistent marine layer continues to impact KOTH with low
clouds. This will be the case throughout this valid TAF cycle with
persistent MVFR conditions. Inland, satellite imagery shows this
layer has spilled into the Umpqua valley, and this will result in
MVFR conditions this morning for KRBG before some relief this
afternoon, but similar conditions expected again overnight.
Otherwise, farther inland both KMFR and KLMT will experience VFR
conditions throughout the valid TAF period. Lastly, typical
diurnal breezes expected this afternoon and early evening.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 239 AM PDT Wed May 6 2026/

DISCUSSION (Today through Tuesday)...

Key Points:

* Limited impacts the next several days
    - Most notable will be the well above normal temperatures
    - Some areas 10-15+ degree above normal
* Drying trend starts today
    - No signal for precipitation in the forecast at this time

Further Details:

A ridge of high pressure will build in over the region today as a
long wave trough consumes much of the central and eastern CONUS.
Overall, this ridge will be the dominated upper level pattern for
the region through much of the forecast with one caveat Friday.
There will be a weak shortwave entering the PacNW on Friday, but
this is very progressive in the eastward progression and will likely
only result in cooler temperatures for our area. Friday is the
overall "coolest" day in the forecast, but we are still forecasting
above normal temperatures on this day.

There is a signal in the extended forecast for this ridge to
essentially remain in place through middle parts of May. This could
result in continued above normal temperatures and dry conditions
which may result in an accelerated period of drying for fuels.
Through May, the Climate Prediction Center is indicating a strong
signal for above normal temperatures, and a weak signal for below
normal precipitation chances. In fact, there is a signal for this
trend to continue May-June-July with El Nino chances likely (61%
chance) to emerge through this period, and persist through at least
the end of 2026.

-Guerrero

AVIATION (06Z TAFs)...

A fairly deep marine layer exists along the coast this evening
with MVFR ceilings around 1500 ft. These ceilings briefly broke at
North Bend this afternoon into this evening, but will return
overnight and could lower to IFR at times as well (in the 500-1000
ft range). Ceilings are expected to fill into the Umpqua Basin
again later tonight, so MVFR is likely to return to Roseburg and
last through most of the morning before breaking to VFR after 18Z.
Medford should remain VFR, though patches of stratus could spill
through gaps in the Umpqua Divide to near Grants Pass. Stratus
impacting the northern portions of the Sacramento Valley (near
Redding) has expanded into areas near and just south/southeast of
Mt. Shasta (far SE Siskiyou/SW Modoc counties) and will persist
into mid-morning before breaking to VFR again. Elsewhere,
conditions will remain VFR through Wednesday evening.

-Spilde/DW

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, May 6, 2026...An extended
period of relatively calm conditions will continue through
Friday, with west-northwest swell dominated seas likely remaining
below 8 ft. Wind speeds briefly increase Thursday morning south of
Cape Blanco, but remain below advisory conditions and quickly
diminish in the afternoon. A thermal trough will develop Saturday
morning and strengthen through the weekend, resulting in gusty
north winds and steep seas through early next week.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$