984
FXUS66 KMFR 152038
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
138 PM PDT Wed Jul 15 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms possible this afternoon and early evening
  across mainly eastside areas: Central/eastern Siskiyou, Modoc,
  Klamath and Lake counties, with Klamath County favored.

* After a brief period of cooler or less warm temperatures on
  Thursday, temperatures will warm up, peaking on Sunday in the
  90s to low 100s for inland valleys.

* Gusty winds and low humidities are expected to bring elevated
  fire weather conditions on Friday afternoon and evening,
  especially east of the Cascades and in the Shasta Valley.

* Smoke from the East Evans Creek Fire will result in continued
  impacts downwind of of the fire. Late today and tonight, smoke
  impacts may spread into the Rogue Valley and areas east and
  southeast, including Klamath County as well as into eastern
  Siskiyou and Modoc counties.

* A slight chance of thunderstorms is expected on Monday for areas
  from the Cascades and Northern California.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

A high pressure ridge remains centered to the east with a low off
the coast of Washington and Oregon. This pattern is bringing
southwesterly flow aloft and mid level moisture into the area.
This low will gradually move northeastward near the Washington
coast on Thursday then northward into British Columbia on Friday.

With this pattern today, there are chances for isolated
thunderstorms from the Cascades eastward and into central/eastern
Siskiyou County. The best agreement in models and ensembles is for
storms to develop (15-25% chance) along the Southern Oregon
Cascades and over Klamath County. However chances (10-15%) for
thunderstorms extend into Lake, Modoc and Siskiyou counties. Gusty
outflow winds (to around 40 mph) may accompany any storms today.
After sunset, the area for thunderstorms shifts north of the area.


Dry weather is expected overnight and on Thursday. Temperatures
trend cooler on Thursday as the low moves along the PacNW coast. A
marine push may bring low clouds along the coast into the Umpqua
by early Thursday morning. Then temperature trend warmer again on
Friday.

Breezy to gusty afternoon winds are expected through Friday. These
winds, combined with low humidities, will bring elevated to
critical fire weather conditions, especially for areas east of the
Cascades. For details, see the fire weather discussion below.

High pressure builds across the region Saturday and Sunday. This
will result in hot temperatures develop for inland areas with
highs 5-10 degrees above normal. There is a chance for
temperatures reaching 100 degrees at Medford (60% chance) and at
Yreka (25% chance).

Then, models show a weak upper level disturbance moving towards
the area from the southwest late Sunday and Monday. The National
Blend of Models supports chances for thunderstorms and showers
across northern California and east of the Cascades on Monday and
Tuesday afternoon and evening. However, variability remains in the
handling of this disturbance and strength of the high pressure.
So confidence in the details is low.


&&

.AVIATION...15/18Z TAFs...Conditions along the coast are mainly
VFR with local MVFR near and north of North Bend (KOTH). Marine
stratus will return to the coast this evening, bringing lover
flight levels back to coastal areas. IFR/MFR may spread into the
Umpqua Basin late tonight and early Friday morning.

For all other areas, expect VFR through the TAF period. Isolated
thunderstorms may bring gusty winds, mainly for areas along and
east of the Cascades. Afternoon and evening winds look to turn
northwest late today, which is expected to bring smoke into the
Rogue Valley. This may periodically impact visibilities at
Medford, but reaching MVFR levels is not expected. Smoke levels
should ease towards the end of this TAF period, but the pattern
may repeat on Thursday.


&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM PDT Wednesday, July 15, 2026...Gusty
northerly winds are building steep seas (overall borderline
advisory) south of Cape Blanco today into tonight. North winds are
expected to increase again on Friday under a thermal trough
pattern. These thermal trough winds will be strongest during the
afternoon and evening hours and will likely result in small craft
conditions through the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Isolated thunderstorm activity is expected for areas
from the Cascades east, with the focus across Klamath and far eastern
Douglas County. There are also a slight chance for thunderstorms
into Lake, Modoc and central/eastern Siskiyou Counties. Thunderstorm
 activity is generally expected to be isolated pulse-type cells and
should ease into the evening. Gusty winds (up to around 40 mph) are
possible near thunderstorms today.

Gusty winds are expected to develop east of the Cascades in the
afternoon and evening of Thursday and Friday. Winds and RHs on
Thursday look to be near but just below critical levels. On Friday,
RHs are forecast to drop and winds increase enough to support a Fire
Weather Watch for the combination of those conditions. A Fire
Weather Watch has been issued for Friday afternoon and evening in
Fire Weather Zones CA285 and the southeastern portion of OR624 due
to gusty winds and low humidities. Additionally, elevated Fire
Weather conditions are expected in the Shasta valley with a
potential for a brief period of near critical conditions late
Friday afternoon/early Friday evening.

Dry conditions and temperatures 5 to 10 degrees above normal are
expected through the weekend, but winds are expected to ease to
below critical speeds. Temperatures will peak on Sunday with highs
in the 90s to low 100s across inland valleys. Slight chances (10-
15%) for thunderstorms are in the forecast early next week for areas
east of the Cascades and across Northern California.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for ORZ624.

CA...Fire Weather Watch from Friday afternoon through Friday evening
     for CAZ285.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$