646
FXUS66 KMFR 112220
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
220 PM PST Tue Nov 11 2025

.DISCUSSION...A wide swath of mid and high level clouds have
moved in overhead today as a warm front nudges closer in over the
region. Through the scattered gaps here and there in the cloud
shield, satellite imagery does show that low clouds and/or fog
persists in many of the West Side valleys. With the clouds
overhead and the warm front only making the inversions stronger,
many of these valleys may never clear out today before more low
clouds and fog form this evening and tonight. However, as clouds
tend to inhibit fog development, as long as these high clouds
remain overhead, the less likely it is that dense fog will form.
That being said, any areas that do clear have a significant chance
of dense fog formation.

The pattern shifts quickly Wednesday as a deep offshore trough
swings toward the coast. Models continue to show a fairly strong
pressure gradient (MFR-RDD) and mid-level flow initially of
(~50-60 kt) during the day Wednesday. This will result in
strengthening south winds along the coast and also in the usual
spots -- the Shasta Valley and over the East Side. It doesn`t
appear it will come together soon enough to meet High Wind
criteria along the coast, but gusts of 45-55 mph are expected.
Breezy to windy conditions will develop Wednesday farther inland,
especially in the Shasta Valley and over the East Side, but also
perhaps here in the Rogue Valley. Models show mid-level flow
increasing to and peaking at 60-70 kt Wednesday evening/night
along the Cascades and over portions of the Klamath Basin, but
have weakened elsewhere. As a result, the High Wind Watch for the
Shasta Valley has been upgraded to a low end High Wind Warning,
the majority of the East Side was upgraded to only a Wind
Advisory, including at Klamath Falls, and a Wind Advisory was
issued for Rogue Valley from Ashland to Medford. Details on these
wind headlines can be found at PDXNPWMFR.

Once again, snow levels will initially be very high (~8000 ft),
so precipitation, even in the mountains, will begin as rain. It
does look like snow levels drop some, but not as much as it looked
like yesterday. So, down to around 6000 feet by Thursday morning,
then as low as 4000-4500 feet Thursday night into Friday. Some
snow will accumulate above 5000 feet, but the latest guidance has
decreased overall precipitation in our area, likely as a result
of downsloping and blocking due to the more southern trajectory
of the moisture flow. Now mountain snow amounts look more like
1-3" with locally 3-5" up around Crater Lake. In terms of
rainfall, this looks like another Coast Range and into Siskiyou
County event, where amounts of 1-3 inches will be common. West
Side valleys will have a good amount of downsloping, so amounts
there will be less than that -- generally 0.25-0.50" (bulk of
precip coming very late Wednesday night into Thursday). But, post-
frontal showers continue Thursday in moist, onshore flow. It`ll
remain breezy and turn cooler compared to earlier in the week.

The trough axis shifts east of the Cascades Friday, so
precipitation chances should lower. It also doesn`t look quite as
chilly Friday with high temps closer to the seasonal normals (low
to mid 50s west side and upper 40s east side). A closed low will
settle southward into SoCal/NW Mexico Friday night into Saturday
and this will allow a ridge axis to form over us. There is a warm
front in there that could bring some higher PoPs and light precip
from the coast to the Cascades, but from the Umpqua Divide south
and eastward, Saturday should be dry and milder.

Models lift the main moisture axis to our north Saturday/Saturday
night, but the next front is forecast to approach the coast
Sunday with active weather continuing in to early next week.
-Spilde/BPN



&&

.AVIATION...11/18Z TAFs...Along the coast and for inland valleys
expect areas of IFR/LIFR to partially clear this afternoon. Some
areas may not fully clear before widespread valley fog reforms west
of the Cascades again this evening and tonight, impacting Roseburg,
Medford, and North Bend. Elsewhere, VFR will prevail, although some
localized areas of early morning fog are possible in the Klamath
Basin near Klamath Falls. -BPN

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Tuesday, November 11, 2025...A strong
front is anticipated to bring increasing south winds tomorrow. These
winds will likely reach gale force by tomorrow afternoon, resulting
in steep to very steep seas through early Thursday morning. This
will be followed by a high and steep west swell Thursday into
Friday. There will also be a small threat for isolated thunderstorms
as showers approach the shore Thursday afternoon. There is some
uncertainty with movement of low presure Thu night/Fri. While most
guidance moves this system onshore into NW Oregon, a minority of
solutions swings it far enough south to bring the potential for
another period of gales, but at this time we opted for a Small Craft
Advisory to follow the Gale Warning Thursday through Saturday
morning. Either way, high seas will be expected through at least
Saturday. The next front is forecast to arrive Sunday with
increasing south winds and seas. -JG

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Wind Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM PST Saturday for ORZ026-
     029>031.

CA...High Wind Warning from 10 AM Wednesday to 10 AM PST Thursday for
     CAZ081.

     Wind Advisory from 1 AM Thursday to 1 AM PST Saturday for CAZ084-
     085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning from 1 PM Wednesday to 4 AM PST
     Thursday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory from 4 AM Thursday to 1 AM PST Saturday for
     PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$