727
FXUS66 KMFR 230339
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
839 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...The forecast is on track for this evening. The last
clouds from this weekend`s activity are clearing out east of the
Cascades. With onshore flow expected, marine stratus looks to
develop along the coast tonight. Clouds may also reach into the
Umpqua Valley, but substantial inland development is not expected.
Above seasonal temperatures and dry conditions remain in the
forecast for Monday.

Please see the previous discussion below for more details on the
short- and long-term forecast. -TAD

&&

.AVIATION...23/00Z TAFs...Satellite image shows cloud cover
gradually diminishing. VFR conditions continue through the TAF
period for most areas. Areas of MVFR and IFR are possible for the
coast later this evening and tonight. Low ceilings could make
their way into the Coquille Basin and portions of the Umpqua Basin
late tonight, but impact is not expected at Roseburg. -TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 830 PM Sunday, June 22, 2025...A thermal trough
is bringing gusty north winds, building steep seas south of Cape
Blanco through Tuesday morning. Winds and seas are expected to
improve Tuesday afternoon and remain below advisory through the
middle of the week. A thermal trough could develop near the end of
the week and persist into the weekend. -Hermansen/TAD

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 424 PM PDT Sun Jun 22 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows the upper trough east of the
forecast area with dry north to northeast flow aloft. Cloud cover is
pretty extensive in Oregon, except for mostly clear skies over most
of the Rogue Valley. Skies in northern Cal are clear to partly
cloudy.

Clouds are expected to diminish this evening with mostly clear skies
tonight. However, there will be warming aloft and guidance suggest
areas between Chemult and Crescent are at highest risk of getting
near freezing towards daybreak Monday.

The upcoming work week is expected to be dry with warmer
temperatures for the interior. While afternoon temperatures will be
above normal, were not expecting hot temperatures. A weak upper
trough will approach the waters late Monday afternoon, but this will
not have any impact on the weather.

Monday night remains dry with marine stratus forming along the coast
and forming in the Coquille Basin and possibly slip into portions of
the Umpqua Basin, but confidence is less on the latter.

Tuesday remains dry with warmer afternoon temperatures, with the
interior westside valleys expected to be in the upper 80s to near 90
for portions of the Rogue Valley, and low to mid 80s east of the
Cascades.

Weak upper troughing will bring an increased onshore flow. This will
result in slight cooling for the interior with low to mid 80s
expected for the interior westside valleys and upper 70s to low 80s
east of the Cascades. Marine stratus will deepen some along the
coast, north of Cape Blanco and could be enough to squeeze out
patchy drizzle from about Bandon north early Wednesday morning.

Weak upper troughing will remain over the area Thursday and Friday
with conditions similar to Wednesday. Afternoon temperatures for the
interior will be near seasonal norms.

The clusters and ensemble means suggest upper ridging building into
the area towards the start of this weekend, with much warmer
temperatures, but this may turn out to be only a 2-3 day period
before weak troughing returns for the early part of next week.
-Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$