858
FXUS66 KMFR 301330
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
530 AM PST Sun Nov 30 2025

.DISCUSSION...An inside slider and weak cold front accompanying
the trough moved southeast across our area last night. The radar
early this morning is still picking up a few very light showers
over the higher terrain, particularly the Cascades, with snow
flurries possible above 4800 feet msl. Areas with measureable
precipitation overnight, mainly in Coos and Douglas counties have
seen mainly from a trace to 0.04 inches. This includes 0.01 inches
at Roseburg. The lingering showers are expected to taper off over
the next few hours, by 8 AM PST. The atmospheric lift and cloud
cover accompanying the front has resulted in much more limited
coverage of fog than in the past several preceding mornings.

Dry weather is likely to follow through at least Wednesday night
with seasonable temperatures. Strong valley inversions tonight
through Wednesday night will lead to return of areas of mainly
west side night and morning low clouds and fog as well. The one
exception is that easterly low level winds should help keep the
coast clear tonight into Monday morning.

A weak trough bearing a resemblance to that which passed
overnight, is expected on Tuesday into Tuesday evening. It will
mainly produce another increase of cloud cover across our area,
though there will be a slight chance of light showers for the
far northern and far eastern fringes of our area. Our weather both
today through Monday, and on Wednesday is expected to be driven by
High Pressure with light winds and the aforementioned valley
stratus.

The pattern is expected to become more active Thursday or Friday
with periods of light precipitation focused from the coast to the
Cascades into early next week. Regarding the next cold front
arriving from the northwest, the GFS and its suite of ensemble
members leans on the faster and stronger/wetter side in comparison
to the ECMWF. This is a classic situation for utilizing the
blended model solution, which favors a drier/slower solution. The
latter part of the week into early next week, particulary Friday
night into Saturday, looks to bring rain and high elevation snow
chances. But, the majority of solutions still keep any
precipitation on the light side at least through Day 9/Monday.

&&

.AVIATION...30/12z TAFs...The passage of a weak cold front overnight
has provided sufficient mixing to produce mainly VFR ceilings early
this morning. Mainly in southwest Oregon, there are patches of IFR
and MVFR, and also areas of mountain obscuration. Improvement to VFR
is expected across the area during the late morning into early
evening. The air mass will stabilize this evening, with a return of
the seasonably typical areas of inland valley LIFR/IFR into Monday
morning. However, light easterly winds are expected to keep the
coast clear of low clouds overnight.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Sunday, November 30, 2025...
The main updates are to issue a Small Craft Advisory south of Port
Orford this afternoon and evening, and both extend in time and
broaden the areal coverage of a following Small Craft Advisory
later this evening into Wednesday morning.

Northerly winds will increase today, with gusts south of Port Orford
reaching Small Craft Advisory strength during the afternoon and
evening. The strongest north winds will shift to the outer waters
south of Cape Blanco tonight, with steep seas expected to persist
over the southern waters at least into Wednesday. Seas may also
become steep north of Cape Blanco on Tuesday. An incoming long
period west swell is expected to peak at 7 to 11 ft Monday into
Tuesday with period of 20 seconds gradually shortening to 14
seconds. Conditions may briefly improve for Thursday, but the
pattern is likely to turn more active late in the week.

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 AM PST Sunday, November
30, 2025...Guidance shows a long period swell arriving Monday, first
arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 21 to 22 seconds early Monday
morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is
anticipated by 8 AM PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can
occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. A Beach
Hazards Statement remains in effect to highlight this risk for
Monday morning into Tuesday afternoon.

This swell is expected to peak at around 7 to 10 ft at 16 to 18
seconds Monday afternoon and evening, so while seas will be steep,
high surf conditions are not expected at beaches. If you have plans
to visit the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be
aware of this potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to
the beaches for another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly
farther on beaches than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and
jetties and can suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep
them into the ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which
could crush or trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn
your back on the ocean!

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement from Monday morning through Tuesday
     afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this
     afternoon to 8 PM PST this evening for PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 10 AM Monday to 7 AM PST Wednesday for
     PZZ356.

     Small Craft Advisory from 1 PM this afternoon to 7 AM PST
     Wednesday for PZZ376.

&&

$$