762
FXUS66 KMFR 101753
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1053 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.Updated AVIATION Discussion...

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...LIFR conditions in marine stratus persist
along the coast north of Cape Blanco and over the marine waters.
There should be some clearing this afternoon as gusty north winds
increase along the coast, but improvement may be brief over the
marine waters. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening, with mid-high level clouds streaming west to east across
northern California. Expect gusty winds to develop across the area
this afternoon, then ease after sunset.

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to return to the coast this
evening, then persist into Friday morning. Marine stratus will make
a push inland tonight, likely filling portions of the Umpqua Basin
by sunrise with low end VFR ceilings. It doesn`t look quite deep
enough to "spill over" the Rogue-Umqpua Divide, but there could be
some patches of clouds along the terrain in the Rogue/Illinois
Valleys around sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 557 AM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026/

KEY MESSAGES...

* Dry front pushes through the region late today and early Friday.
  Gusty winds/low RH on Thursday bring elevated fire weather
  concerns east of the Cascades. There is a low chance (5%) of
  thunderstorms across eastern Siskiyou, Modoc and southern Lake
  counties late this afternoon and this evening.

* A low pressure moves over the area and brings chances for
  showers on Saturday, highest north of OR/CA border and
  along/west of Cascades. 15-25% for thunderstorms from the coast
  to the Southern Oregon Cascades. Strong, gusty winds east of
  Cascades possible.

* Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures around
  15-20 degrees below normal.

* Dry conditions return Sunday with continued cool temperatures.
  Gradual warming trend Monday through Wednesday.

DISCUSSION...A shortwave trough centered to the north will bring
a dry front into the area late today and early Friday. This
pattern will result in slightly lower temperatures, breezy to
gusty afternoon/evening winds, and some cumulus build ups.
Temperatures will trend 2-5 degrees cooler today but will still
remain above normal across inland areas. The combination of gusty
winds and dry afternoon humidities will bring elevated fire
weather conditions to areas east of the Cascades. Additionally
models are indicating more mid level moisture moving up from the
south this afternoon and evening, which combined with instability
will bring some cumulus build ups and a low chance (5%) for
thunderstorms, mainly across eastern Siskiyou, Modoc and southern
Lake Counties. Gusty outflows may accompany any buildups or
thunderstorms.

High temperatures trend 7 to 10 degrees cooler on Friday as the
base of a broad trough remains over the region. Breezy to gusty
winds are likely again Friday afternoon, especially east of the
Cascades.

A stronger low drops south Friday night and moves over the area
on Saturday. This will bring much cooler conditions on the
weekend. High temperatures are expected to be 15-20 degrees below
normal on Saturday! Model guidance and ensembles continue to
shower chances for showers on Saturday, especially along/west of
the Cascades and north of the OR/CA border. Amounts won`t be
nearly as much as the most recent system, but generally
0.15"-0.25" for the coast, from the Rogue/Umpqua Divide north
(Douglas County) and into the Southern Oregon Cascades. Across
Josephine and Jackson counties, expect lower amounts of a few
hundreths to a tenth of an inch in showers. Instability with this
low  will bring a chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Saturday,
mainly from the coast inland to the Southern Oregon Cascades. East
of the Cascades, there are lower chances for showers (10-40%).
Northern California will be drier with very low (5-20%) chance for
showers.

This low quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday. So, expect dry
weather with lingering cooler than normal temperatures. Morning
lows may dip down to near or below freezing for areas east of the
Cascades early Sunday morning. Then, early next week, expect a
gradual warming trend Monday through Wednesday with temperatures
likely to return to near or slightly above normal by Tuesday.

MARINE...Updated 800 PM PDT Wednesday, September 9, 2026...
Conditions remain hazardous to small craft through this morning
with steep wind waves and gusty north winds. Winds increase
further this afternoon, with steep to very steep seas developing
south of Nesika Beach and from about 5 to 30 NM from shore,
lasting through late Thursday evening. Small craft advisory
conditions will linger into Friday. Winds and seas should subside
this weekend before potentially ramping up again Sunday afternoon
into Monday.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 AM PDT
     Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$