131
FXUS66 KMFR 031624
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
924 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025

.DISCUSSION...

Some low to mid clouds are lingering in the valleys today,
although they should diminish quickly into the day as high
pressure begins to build. Some of the high resolution guidance is
picking up on rain and snow showers east of the Cascades with some
potential instability developing late in the afternoon. The
chance of showers is generally 5 to 15 percent east of the
Cascades this afternoon.

Read the previous discussion below for more information on the
upcoming weather this weekend into next week.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION...03/12Z TAFs...Expecting VFR conditions to dominate this
cycle. There will be low to mid level clouds present this morning,
but expecting skies to generally clear as the day progresses.
Afternoon breezes expected today but overall light wind speeds
through this cycle.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 800 AM Thursday, April 2, 2025...Seas are expected
to be around 6 to 9 feet at 9 seconds today with north to northwest
winds generally in the 10-25 kt range, strongest to the south. As a
result, a Small Craft Advisory is in effect today out to 20 NM from
shore off Cape Blanco, and extending to 60 NM from shore off Pt. St.
George. A period of improving conditions is expected Friday through
Saturday. Thereafter, a building long period (17-20 seconds) west
swell is anticipated on Sunday, and this will likely lead to steep
seas and hazardous conditions over the waters.

-Guerrero/Hermansen

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 423 AM PDT Thu Apr 3 2025/

Dry northerly flow will set up over the area today. However some
of the high res models and CAMS Convective allowing models) that
shows radar reflectivity shows isolated showers popping up in
portions of Lake and Modoc County during the day. We`ll have
another day of seasonably cool afternoon temperatures and
decreasing cloud cover west of the Cascades. It will breezy this
afternoon east of the Cascades as stronger winds aloft mix down
near the surface.

It will be dry warmer Friday and Saturday as upper ridging builds
into the area, with warmer afternoon temperatures. Mid-upper 70s are
in the forecast for West Side Valleys with mid to upper 60s for East
Side locations.

An upper trough and front will approach the area late Saturday
night. Precipitation will reach the coast late Saturday night, then
gradually move inland west of the Cascades Sunday morning into
Sunday afternoon. It`s possible some precipitation could make it
east of the Cascades Sunday afternoon. The majority of the ECMWF
ensemble members and operational ECMWF keep the bulk of the
precipitation along and west of the Cascades. In contrast, the
operational GFS and ensemble members brings the precipitation farther
east Sunday afternoon.

The clusters are in pretty good agreement with the upper pattern
similar to the ECMWF solutions. Therefore the forecast for Saturday
night into Sunday will lean towards keeping the eastside dry into
Sunday afternoon.

The front will move inland Sunday evening as a shortwave trough acts
as a "kicker" pushing the front inland, followed by post frontal
showers Sunday night into Monday.

We could catch a brief break in the action Monday night, but the
upper flow will be westerly, with another but weaker front pushing
into the area Tuesday morning. The best chance for precipitation
Tuesday should be along the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades, and
north of the Umpqua Divide.

500mb heights will increase Tuesday evening and night, with
precipitation diminishing and shifting north. All signs are pointing
towards dry and mild weather Wednesday and Thursday, followed by a
weak front Friday. -Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 3 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$