729
FXUS66 KMFR 121609
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
909 AM PDT Wed Mar 12 2025

.DISCUSSION...Precipitation along and just ahead of an incoming
front is pushing inland and its moving into the Rogue Valley. The
front is still just offshore with one of the inner buoys showing
w wind shift from south to southwest. The forecast is on track and
no changes are needed for today. The main concern will be around
the Mount Shasta area later today as snow levels begins to lower
resulting in a changeover from rain to wet snow along the I-5 from
just south of Weed to Dunsmuir.

Precipitation will continue tonight in the wake of the front as an
upper trough moves into the area with snow concerns expected
around the Mount Shasta Area, and portions of the Eastside with
moderate to strong winds in the Shasta Valley, and higher
elevations east of the Cascades. -Petrucelli

&&

.AVIATION...12/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore. Marine
stratus remains locked in with low VFR/MVFR ceilings as warm moist
air pushes in ahead of the cold front. Look for these lower ceilings
to persist through the day. The strong winds and turbulence should
prevent any IFR or LIFR ceilings to develop. Wind shear will be a
concern during frontal passage around 12z to ~16z today.

Inland west of the Cascades, VFR ceilings will continue through the
TAF period, although scattered MVFR ceilings are possible early this
morning. As the cold front approaches, there is a low chance of low
level wind shear over Roseburg this morning.

Farther south, Medford will remain VFR through the TAF period with
strong southeast winds in the southern end of the Rogue valley.
Those south winds should eventually break into MFR by the afternoon
hours.

East of the Cascades, VFR conditions will continue through the TAF
period with southwest winds increasing this afternoon with winds
remaining elevated and shifting south this evening. Winds could peak
out close to 35 kts towards daybreak Wednesday as KLMT always seems
to over perform with wind gust strength during south flow.

Overall areas west of the Cascades will see more shower activity
this morning with the rain moving to more areas east of the Cascades
into the afternoon. -Smith/Hermansen


&&

.MARINE...Updated 900 AM PST Wednesday, March 12, 2025...A cold
front will move inland this morning, with winds shifting from south
to southwest and gradually diminishing. However, a westerly swell
will increase late this afternoon into Thursday evening, and seas
will remain elevated for Small Craft conditions which will last
through at last Thursday night once the Gale Warning headline ends
later this morning.

The pattern will remain active for the reminder of the week with a
series of systems moving through. There`s good agreement the first
could bring strong south winds Friday, followed by another round of
strong winds Saturday night, timing of when winds will be strongest
will likely vary this far out into the forecast period, this we`ll
keep a close watch on this. If nothing else, the combination of
winds and seas will likely result in at least Hazardous Seas Warning
conditions Friday into this weekend. -Petrucelli/Hermansen


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for ORZ027-028-
     030-031.

CA...Winter Storm Warning until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ080-082-083.

     Wind Advisory until 2 PM PDT this afternoon for CAZ081.

     Winter Weather Advisory until 5 AM PDT Thursday for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Gale Warning until 11 AM PDT this morning
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-
     376.

&&

$$