820
FXUS66 KMFR 102123
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
223 PM PDT Thu Sep 10 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Another hot day today (5-10 degrees above normal), but slightly
  cooler than yesterday. Cooling trend continues into the weekend.

* Dry front pushes through region today into Friday. Gusty winds/low
  RH this afternoon bring elevated fire weather concerns east of the
  Cascades. Very slight chance (5%) of thunderstorms across far
  northern California.

* Increasing chances of showers/light precipitation on Saturday,
  highest north of OR/CA border and along/west of Cascades. 15-25%
  for thunderstorms from the coast to the Cascades. Strong winds
  east of Cascades possible.

* Significantly cooler Saturday and Sunday, high temperatures around
  15-20 degrees below normal.

* Dry conditions return Sunday, with warmer (though still around
  5-10 degrees below normal) temperatures returning Monday into
  next week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...Clear skies prevail for most of the area this
afternoon. Marine stratus lingers over the marine waters and along
the immediate coast. Some mid and high level clouds are streaming
west to east just south of the OR/CA border. Radar even shows
returns associated with this cloud cover, but most surface
observations don`t indicate anything making it to the ground. A few
sites (Klamath Falls, Lakeview) have reported a trace, and
Strawberry RAWS has recorded 0.01" in the last 6 hours. While the
better instability is farther south, guidance does show some
potential for an isolated thunderstorm (~5% chance) across far
eastern Modoc along the Warners this afternoon.

Gusty west to northwest winds will develop this afternoon as an
upper level trough sags southward over the PacNW today. Fire weather
concerns increase some today due to these gusty winds, especially
east of the Cascades. Conditions aren`t quite expected to reach
critical values today, and even if they were, recent moisture has
greatly lowered fire weather concerns for the time being. High
temperatures trend cooler by another 10 degrees or so on Friday as
the base of a broad trough remains over the region and there will
likely be another round of gusty winds Friday afternoon.

A stronger low drops over the area on Saturday, bringing a much more
significant cooldown for the weekend and stronger winds to the
region. The mid-level jet associated with this low peaks around 35
to 40 kts Saturday before pushing southeastward and strengthening a
bit. This will limit any headlines for gusty winds, but expect
widespread gusts of 25 to 35 mph to common east of the
Cascades/northern California and the higher terrain. Some of the
windiest spots could gust to 40 mph Saturday afternoon. Despite
these winds, fire weather concerns will be mitigated by increasing
daytime RHs on Saturday compared to today/Friday. Aside from gusty
winds, Saturday will feel quite cool, especially compared to today.
High temperatures will top out around 15-20 degrees below normal,
feeling more on par with late October than mid September. Widespread
showers will develop west of the Cascades on Saturday with some
scattered activity across the East Side as well but primarily north
of Highway 140. Precipitation chances remain highest along/west of
the Cascades and north of the OR/CA border and amounts are generally
expected to be in the 0.15"-0.25" for the coast and north of the
Rogue/Umpqua Divide, with a few hundreths for the rest of the area
southward to the state border. Instability with this trough will
bring a chance (15-25%) for thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly from
the coast inland to the Southern Oregon Cascades.

This low quickly shifts east of the area on Sunday and conditions
will trend drier. There could be some lingering showers across far
northern areas, but most areas will see a dry day on Sunday. Well
below normal temperatures will continue through Sunday, and we`ll
need to monitor the potential for frost/freeze products for portions
of the East Side. Current guidance gives about a 40% chance for low
temperatures to reach 32 degrees in the Klamath Basin Sunday
morning, with about a 20% chance for areas across the Modoc.
Temperatures trend warmer on Monday onward, though remaining below
normal through around midweek. /BR-y

&&

.AVIATION...10/18Z TAFs...LIFR conditions in marine stratus persist
along the coast north of Cape Blanco and over the marine waters.
There should be some clearing this afternoon as gusty north winds
increase along the coast, but improvement may be brief over the
marine waters. Inland, VFR conditions will prevail through this
evening, with mid-high level clouds streaming west to east across
northern California. Expect gusty winds to develop across the area
this afternoon, then ease after sunset.

IFR/LIFR conditions are expected to return to the coast this
evening, then persist into Friday morning. Marine stratus will make
a push inland tonight, likely filling portions of the Umpqua Basin
by sunrise with low end VFR ceilings. It doesn`t look quite deep
enough to "spill over" the Rogue-Umqpua Divide, but there could be
some patches of clouds along the terrain in the Rogue/Illinois
Valleys around sunrise Friday morning.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, September 10, 2026...North
winds will bring steep seas through Friday, highest south of Nesika
Beach and from about 5 to 30 NM from shore. Low pressure will move
in Friday night into Saturday with showers and even a chance of
thunderstorms Saturday afternoon. Even so, winds and seas should
subside this weekend before potentially ramping up again Sunday
night into Monday. -Spilde

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$