911
FXUS66 KMFR 150044
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
544 PM PDT Tue Jul 14 2026

.DISCUSSION...Lightning strikes have already been observed in Modoc
and eastern Siskiyou counties this afternoon, lining up with
guidance that expected pulse thunderstorms to continue into the
evening. The highest chances for activity (20-30%) are present for
Modoc, Lake, and eastern Siskiyou and Klamath counties. Lower
chances (10-20%) cover western Siskiyou and Klamath as well as
southeast Jackson counties. Some model runs indicate isolated
activity continuing into nighttime hours, but this is not generally
expected. As we`ve seen from recent days of thunderstorm activity, a
significant outflow boundary may cause unexpected activity.

With the East Evans Creek Fire continuing to burn, overnight smoke
accumulation is possible for parts of the Rogue Valley. While
current observations show improved conditions, evening northerly
breezes look to bring smoke back southward. Past accumulations from
this fire have affected air quality from Central Point and Eagle
Point to Ashland. Grants Pass has had periods of similarly impacted
air quality, but for shorter durations. Traces of smoke may reach
the Illinois Valley though mixing, but meaningful impacts are not
expected at that distance. Anyone who is sensitive to poor air
quality will want to consider their own condition as well as their
environment as this fire continues to generate so much smoke.

South or southwest flow aloft between a Pacific trough and
continental high pressure is expected through the forecast period,
with some minimal and generally unimpactful shifts in the upper
pattern. This will keep expectations of warm and dry conditions in
place through at least the middle of next week. Lingering monsoon
moisture will keep thunderstorm chances limited to northern Lake and
Klamath counties as well as the Cascades north of Crater Lake on
Wednesday afternoon and evening.

That cutoff low that nudges towards the area before spinning off to
the north will cool west side temperatures west of the Cascades on
Thursday and Friday. This cutoff will also bring a tighter pressure
gradient aloft, which will bring elevated and periodically gusty
winds east of the Cascades on Thursday and Friday afternoon and
evening. Temperatures of 5 to 10 degrees above normal are possible
over the weekend. Drier air aloft is expected for Thursday through
the weekend, which will keep chances for additional precipitation
out of that portion of the forecast.

For next week, the upper pattern becomes somewhat more intricate as
areas of low and high pressure shift around the Pacific Ocean but
this does not look to meaningfully change conditions in the area.
Early indications of isolated afternoon and evening thunderstorm
chances east of the Cascades are starting to develop for the
beginning and middle of next week, but there`s little sign of
abundant activity at this point. -TAD

.AVIATION...15/00Z TAFs...VFR conditions are expected with
isolated thunderstorms this afternoon/evening. Of the terminals,
Klamath Falls has the higher chance of being impacted with a
thunderstorm. Cannot rule out a rogue shower/storm for Medford,
but confidence is low (less than 5% chance). Lastly, smoke from
the East Evans Creek Fire will likely bring haze/smoke to the
Medford terminal today into tonight.

.MARINE...Updated 145 PM PDT Tuesday, July 14, 2026...Gusty
northerly winds are building steep seas south of Cape Blanco through
tonight. North winds are expected to increase again of Friday. These
thermal trough driven winds will be the strongest in the afternoon
and evening hours and may result in small craft conditions through
the weekend.

.FIRE WEATHER...Modoc and eastern Siskiyou counties have already
seen lightning strikes this afternoon, verifying that the potential
for thunderstorm activity into the evening is present. The highest
chances for activity (20-30%) are in those areas as well as across
Lake and eastern Klamath counties. Lower chances (10-20%) are
present in western Klamath, western Siskiyou, and southeast Jackson
counties. Some models indicate stray activity continuing into
nighttime hours, but this is not generally expected.

Chances for thunderstorms decrease on Wednesday, with slight chances
(10-20%) limited to northern Lake and Klamath counties and the
Cascades north of Crater Lake. By Thursday, drier air aloft
eliminates thunderstorm chances through the weekend. Elevated fire
weather concerns for winds and low RHs are present for Thursday and
Friday as gusty winds may develop across the east side while daytime
RHs are critically low. For now these forecast winds do not reach
Red Flag Warning thresholds, but that may change as details become
clearer.

Normal diurnal winds return, with warm and dry conditions continuing
through the weekend. Southerly or southwesterly flow aloft looks to
continue early next week, indicating the possibility of additional
isolated thunderstorm activity. While these chances have generally
been east of the Cascades, a more accurate area has been harder to
describe. Signals for significant thunderstorm activity are not
currently in the forecast, but that may change as details improve.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$