698
FXUS66 KMFR 092341
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
441 PM PDT Thu Oct 9 2025

...Updated AVIATION discussion for 00Z TAFs...

.DISCUSSION...A cool, wet, and windy pattern change has arrived
with the broad closed low meandering just offshore. High
temperatures today will be around 10 degrees cooler than
yesterday, and will drop another 5 to 10 degrees again tomorrow.
Meanwhile, a band of precipitation is forecast to form somewhere
between the Cascades and the coastal ranges late this afternoon
through tonight, followed by the arrival of additional
precipitation with a frontal passage during the day tomorrow.
Onshore flow will persist, and with additional impulses/fronts
passing through, widespread precipitation and cooler temperatures
will continue over southern Oregon and far northern California
through at least early next week. For the sake of comparison, the
next several days will feel more like mid November than early to
mid October. The latest model runs suggest that more seasonable
conditions are likely to return sometime around the middle to
second half of next week.

Other than a good deal of (climatologically speaking) welcome
rains and an isolated thunderstorm or two, a few concerns do
stand out during this time. First, with each passing feature, we
do expect winds to pick up in our usually wind-prone areas, like
the coast, the Shasta Valley, and portions of the East Side like
the Summer Lake area. None of the fronts look particularly
strong, and forecast pressure gradients are marginal at best, so
we don`t expect any periods of strong winds at this time, but
breezy periods will be common.

The other concern will be snow levels, which are forecast to
lower to the lowest levels so far this season. Of particular
interest will be Saturday night/Sunday morning and again Sunday
night/Monday morning, when snow levels are expected to lower just
below 5000 feet. This would put snow over our higher mountain
passes, but as this is expected during periods of more showery
precipitation. and the ground remains somewhat warm, accumulations
of only a couple of inches is forecast. Higher elevations, such
as Crater Lake National Park rim drive over 7000 feet, will see
heavier snows of up to a foot total through Monday evening.
Otherwise, only a dusting to an inch of snow is expected for the
higher terrain of the East Side. -BPN

&&

.AVIATION...10/00Z TAFs...VFR levels continue across all
areas this afternoon. Midlevel clouds ahead of an approaching low
pressure system are moving over areas west of the Cascades. Showers
may be developing over western Douglas County and western Siskiyou
County. These showers may bring locally lower ceilings and
visibilities and may also obscure elevated terrain. Gusty winds
continue in the Shasta Valley. These winds may ease tonight before
increasing on Friday afternoon.

Precipitation chances increase this evening, particularly west of
the Cascades as a cold front offshore approaches the area. While
conditions largely remain VFR, this may include local MVFR and
mountain obscuration. Rain and a slight chance of thunderstorms with
areas of MVFR spread from the coastal waters to the Coast Range
Friday morning across the remainder of the area Friday afternoon and
evening. -Spilde/TAD

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, October 9, 2025...A cold
front will bring showers, a slight chance of thunderstorms, gusty
southerly winds at Small Craft Advisory strength, and steep seas
across the waters late tonight into Friday night.

Swell dominated seas build during the weekend. Steep seas and
northerly winds are likely again by Saturday night, continuing
Sunday. Another similar or slightly stronger low pressure system is
likely late Sunday night into Monday evening, with another slight
chance of thunderstorms. This front is likely to produce steep seas.
-Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 11 PM this evening
     to 8 PM PDT Friday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$