Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
244 FXUS66 KMFR 180505 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 1005 PM PDT Thu Sep 17 2026 ...Updated AVIATION discussion for 06Z TAFs... .KEY MESSAGES... * Showers and thunderstorms again today. Main risk is lightning, but also gusty erratic outflow winds (40-45 mph), especially Cascades eastward this afternoon/evening. Daytime temperatures remaining below normal. * Temperatures warm Friday through the weekend getting back above normal Saturday and Sunday. * Signal for dry weather and seasonable temperatures continues for next week. && .DISCUSSION... Showers and thunderstorms are ongoing this afternoon as the upper level low remains centered over northern California. Showers should be on the decrease tonight as the probability of precipitation lowers overnight. We`ll see this upper level low move eastwards into the day on Friday with high pressure starting to build during the afternoon hours. Temperatures will be on the increase with highs closer to the normals for this time of year. This 500 mb ridge begins to build into the weekend and seems to peak around Sunday as highs west of the Cascades peak here in Medford. We`re forecasting a high of 93 here in Medford with upper 70`s east of the Cascades and lower 80`s in northern California. Overall, this weekend will be fairly quiet weather wise with some temperatures lingering above normal. It`s looking like zonal flow for most of next week. Models show flattening 500 mb heights early next week with an upper level low moving into California. Conditions will likely remain dry early next week. The NBM has 1-5% chance of precipitation west of the Cascades from around Tuesday to Thursday. A few ECMWF ensemble members appear to be pulling in a cold front with some moisture in around that time mid week. Nothing stands out weather wise for early next week as we`ll see pretty typical late summer and early fall conditions. The extreme forecast index isn`t showing anything that is extreme for early fall as well. The only things worth mentioning at this point is the forecast is looking wetter towards the end of September around next Friday into next weekend. More ensemble forecast members are starting to bring precipitation into the Pacific Northwest. Still disagreement on timing and location, although the general theme is more precipitation should be on the way. -Smith && .AVIATION...18/06Z TAFs...MVFR to IFR levels continue along the Oregon coast under marine stratus. LIFR levels are possible early Friday morning, with levels rising through the day, becoming mainly MVFR by early afternoon. IFR returns along the coast Friday evening. Inland terminals are expected to be mainly VFR levels through the TAF period except for areas of IFR/MFR in the Umpqua early Friday morning, lifting to VFR around 18z. && .MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, September 16, 2026... Conditions will continue to ease into Friday. North winds increase again Saturday with steep seas likely Saturday afternoon through the weekend, especially south of Cape Blanco. North winds and wind driven seas are likely to build to a peak Monday, and remain near that level on Tuesday, with gales possible south of Cape Blanco. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$