077
FXUS66 KMFR 302338
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
438 PM PDT Thu Jul 30 2026

...Aviation Discussion Updated...

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Typical summer weather continues today, with warming on Friday.

* A dry cold front will bring lower temperatures and gusty winds
  to east of the Cascades, Rogue and Shasta valleys on Saturday. A
  thermal trough pattern will move gusty winds to the Umpqua,
  Illinois valleys and Oregon coast on Sunday.

* Temperatures warm early next week, then cool through the rest of
  the week.

&&

.DISCUSSION...A passing weak shortwave trough moving along
southwestern flow aloft is bringing upper level clouds across the
area. This shortwave may also bring some breezy conditions across
the area this afternoon and evening. A very slight chance (~5%)
remains in the forecast for dry thunderstorms in Lake and Klamath
counties later through the evening. Other than these minor
considerations, normal summer weather continues today.  On Friday, a
continental ridge retrogrades and is expected to bring temperatures
about 5 degrees above normal across the area. This will put coastal
areas in the in the low to mid 70s. The Umpqua Valley looks to be in
the high 80s to low 90s, with other west side valleys in the high
90s. Chances for triple digits are fairly low, with NBM
probabilistic guidance showing a 15% chance for parts of the Rogue
and Shasta valleys to hit 100 degrees. Areas to the east will
generally be in the high 80s to low 90s.

A passing dry cold front will bring cooler temperatures for most
areas on Saturday and Sunday. Widespread gusty winds are possible
east of the Cascades, with maximum gusts of 25 to 35 mph expected on
Saturday afternoon and evening. For most valleys west of the
Cascades, gusts of 15 to 25 mph will be possible. With winds coming
from the northwest, areas in the Rogue Valley from Shady Cove to
Ashland may see more gusts on the higher end of that range. The
Shasta Valley could see gusts up to 35 mph as well. Gusty winds
continue into Sunday east of the Cascades, although the speeds may
ease slightly. A thermal trough pattern may bring gusty northeast
winds into the Illinois and Umpqua valleys as well as along the
coast.

Temperatures warm back to seasonal levels on Monday as typical
summer conditions are expected to return across the area. Beyond
Monday, long-term models diverge somewhat although the overall
impact is minimal. ECMWF deterministic imagery keeps a generally
southwest flow pattern, while the GFS builds high pressure off the
Canadian coast that results in northeast flow aloft. Both patterns
are dry and uneventful, with GFS ensemble members leaning a few
degrees cooler. For the moment, the result of both outcomes is a
warm Tuesday with steady cooling through the rest of next week. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...31/00Z TAFs...Low marine stratus with IFR/LIFR is
expected to develop tonight (beginning around 07-11z) along the
coast and into coastal valleys. This will mainly affect areas north
of Cape Blanco, including North Bend (KOTH) and from Brookings
south. IFR/LIFR will clear to VFR around 16-18z Friday. Inland,
expect VFR conditions. Normal diurnal breezes are expected in the
afternoons and early evenings.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Thursday, July 30, 2026...North winds
ease a bit today, with seas diminishing to around 5 ft. These
conditions will persist through Friday, then a low pressure system
passing to the north will produce very strong northerly winds
through the weekend and into early next week, as it tightens the
gradient and enhances the thermal trough to the south. Steep seas
are expected for waters south of Cape Blanco by Saturday night.
Gales and very steep seas are highly likely Sunday into Monday south
of Cape Blanco, and periods of storm force gusts possible. Gusty
winds and steep seas look to spread north of Cape Blanco. -BPN/TAD

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Thursday, July 30, 2026...

The main fire weather concern will be the passage of a dry cold
front Saturday. As with most dry fronts this time of year, gusty
winds are expected to accompany its passage, with gusts up to 20 mph
expected west of the Cascades, and of 25 to 35 mph to the east.
While the front will bring some slightly improved humidities to the
area, conditions will be very close to critical values for some
locations, particularly the high terrain and typically windier areas
of Lake and Modoc counties. This period will be watched closely, and
fire weather headlines may be necessary should models dry slightly
or winds increase slightly from the current forecast. -BPN/Smith


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 5 PM Saturday to 5
     PM PDT Sunday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$