278
FXUS66 KMFR 131047
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
347 AM PDT Wed May 13 2026

.DISCUSSION...

The cold front and associated band of showers is currently moving
through the area this morning while the storms remain to our
north. There will be some rain within these showers, although
accumulation should be rather low or some areas will stay completely
dry, like locations east of the Cascades.

As for the rest of the day, the 500 mb trough axis will be in
eastern Oregon by the afternoon hours, so things should start to
dry out towards the afternoon hours as the probability of
precipitation drops to 0 percent by the evening hours. With the
cooler more unstable air moving on shore, we should see some fair
weather cumulus within Oregon in the late afternoon and evening
hours. It looks like skies will be clearer within California.

Zonal flow and clear skies are anticipated during Thursday. Not a
whole lot to talk about as temperatures warm briefly with some
gusty north westerly breezes.

By Thursday night into Friday morning, another cold front is
showing up on the 850 mb equivalent potential temperature charts.
It`s not really associated with an upper level wave, so a tad
bizarre. In any case, it will be a dry front for our area with
the probability of precipitation <5% for our northern portions of
our forecast area. However, we should all see temperatures trend cooler
from Thursday into Friday.

Finally, we could see some rain on Saturday as another wave in
Washington digs deeper into the Pacific Northwest, bringing some
light precipitation(<0.05 inches) in northern portions of our
area. The cooler onshore flow will persist and keep temperatures
near normal for this time of year.

As for the remainder of next week, most of the ensemble members
are keeping us dry. However, about 8% of those members want to
bring precipitation through at times, mainly around Wednesday and
Thursday timeframe. Interestingly enough, this wetter solution
next week(the 8 percent scenario) is depicted in the 0Z run of
the ECMWF, which is an outlier at the moment.

Overall, no major weather impacts anticipated based on what we`re
seeing in the models through the next week.

&&

.AVIATION...

A passing upper level trough will bring rain showers and periods
of IFR ceilings over locations along the coast. Those ceilings
will improve through the day as some drier air moves in as the
wave moves farther east.

VFR conditions are anticipated for locations away from the coast
through the TAF period. A isolated shower could produce some brief
IFR conditions, although VFR conditions will prevail for the
majority of the TAF period. We should see a fair amount of fair
weather cumulus early in the afternoon hours before eroding
somewhat as drier air moves in.

-Smith

&&

.MARINE...

A passing low pressure system will bring showers early today,
along with increasing west winds and west swell. Despite this,
below advisory conditions are expected to persist as seas increase
some, but remain swell dominated. Gusty north winds could return
Thursday with steeps seas possible by Friday.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None.

&&

$$