051
FXUS66 KMFR 080819
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
119 AM PDT Tue Sep 8 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* A Frost Advisory is in effect valleys and basins east of the
  Cascades early this morning. Frost is not expected to be as
  widespread as yesterday morning though.

* Warmer and drier conditions are expected through Thursday, with
  peak warming on Wednesday. Upper slopes and ridges may see
  breezy easterly flow and moderate to poor overnight recoveries,
  especially from the Cascades west Tuesday night/Wednesday
  morning.

* Breezy to gusty westerly winds are expected Thursday
  afternoon/evening east of the Cascades.

* Cooler temperatures develop Friday into the weekend. Chances for
  rain are expected on Saturday, mainly along the coast, into the
  Umpqua Basin and over the Southern Oregon Cascades.


&&

.DISCUSSION...
This morning, areas of frost may develop in valleys east of the
Cascades due to linger cool air with a subsidence inversion, light
winds and clear skies. However, frost will not be as widespread as
yesterday morning. Localized low clouds and fog may develop this
morning, especially along the coast and in coastal valleys, north
of Cape Blanco. Low clouds and fog will clear in the mid to late
morning.

High pressure will build in today and Wednesday bringing a warming
and drying trend. Today, high temperatures will be slightly above
normal across the area. Then, on Wednesday, temperatures peak
with highs around 10 degrees above normal. The National Blend of
Models and guidance supports highs in the mid 80s to mid 90s
across inland valleys. Ridges and upper slopes along the coast
will see moderate recoveries and breezy easterly winds this
morning. Then, tonight and Wednesday morning, expect moderate to
locally poor recoveries and breezy easterly winds, especially from
the Cascades west.

On Thursday, temperatures will trend slightly less warm but remain
above normal across inland areas. A low well to the north will
bring a dry front into the area late Thursday with a potential for
gusty westerly winds, especially for areas east of the Cascades.

On Friday, a low pressure will shift south and approach the coast
then move inland over the area on Saturday. This will bring a
return to near or slightly below normal temperatures on Friday and
cooler, below normal temperatures, on Saturday. As the low moves
overhead on Saturday, expect showers to develop over portions of
southwest Oregon. The National Blend of Models supports a 20-40%
chance of showers from the coast into the Umpqua Basin and
Southern Oregon Cascades. Additionally, there is a low chance
(10-20%) for thunderstorms on Saturday, mainly across Douglas
County. There are lower chances (10-20%) for showers in Josephine,
Jackson, northern Klamath and northern Lake counties. Elsewhere,
in northern California and southern Klamath/Lake counties expect
a very low chance of showers (5-10%). Of note, the chances for
showers have trended higher with recent model runs. We will
continue to monitor this with future model runs.

This low is forecast to shift eastward on Sunday. So, expect
lingering cool temperatures but dry weather.

&&

.AVIATION...08/06Z TAFs...Areas of MVFR/IFR ceilings are possible
along the coast  overnight, but offshore flow could limit its
duration and extent. All other areas should remain VFR throughout
the next 24 hours, although some localized MVFR/IFR in fog or low
stratus are possible in sheltered valleys.

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 AM PDT Tuesday, September 8, 2026...Gusty north
winds and steep wind seas south of Port Orford will expand
northward to Cape Arago through Tuesday morning, then across all
of the waters Tuesday through Tuesday night. Areas of very steep
seas are expected to develop Tuesday evening for the waters south
of Port Orford beyond 10 nm from shore. Winds briefly diminish
Wednesday but steep seas will linger. Then, gusty north winds and
steep seas will likely return on Thursday, mainly for areas south
of Cape Blanco.


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for ORZ029>031.

CA...Frost Advisory until 9 AM PDT this morning for CAZ085.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370.

     Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT this afternoon for PZZ376.

     Hazardous Seas Warning from 5 PM this afternoon to 5 AM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ376.

&&

$$