930
FXUS66 KMFR 221737
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1037 AM PDT Tue Apr 22 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite imagery shows mainly clear skies this
morning, except for an area of stratus in the Umpqua Basin.
These clouds should dissipate in the next hour or so. Dry and mild
weather will continue through this evening.

An upper trough will approach the area later this evening with the
trough axis moving overhead tonight. Instability will be marginal at
best. Convective showers are possible in southeast Siskiyou, Modoc
and southeast Lake and Klamath County.

Isolated showers Wednesday should be confined to the same areas,
although they will trend farther southeast as the trough axis moves
southeast.

Weak upper ridging builds in Wednesday evening into Thursday
morning, then an upper trough will approach from the west resulting
in a chance for showers and isolated storms along the Cascades and a
slight chance of showers in western Siskiyou County and south
coastal mountains.

Friday and Saturday are shaping up to be cool and unsettled with
isolated to scattered showers, with showers most frequent in the
afternoon and early evening hours due to daytime heating.

The upper trough will begin to shift east Sunday with showers
diminishing and becoming more isolated.

Evidence is pointing towards dry and mild weather for the start of
next week. -Petrucelli/Spilde


&&

.AVIATION...22/18Z TAFs...Stratus asscociated with last night`s
marine push continues to hang around the Umpqua Basin late this
morning. This brought MVFR ceilings to Roseburg for a few hours, but
these have since scattered out at the terminal and expect VFR to
prevail through the remainder of the TAF period (through 18Z
Wednesday). Northerly winds will increase at most terminals through
this afternoon, with the strongest winds along the coast. Wind gusts
will peak at 30-35kt at North Bend, while inland sites will
generally see wind gusts in the 15-25kt range.

An upper level short wave will amplify as it moves across the area
tonight. This will cause clouds to develop across SE sections
(NE California into southern Klamath/Lake counties). Overall,
conditions likely remain VFR, though local MVFR and terrain
obscurations are possible in any showers that develop, especially
near the Warner Mtns. These clouds persist in the same general
areas and showers remain possible through Wednesday. Areas north and
west likely remain VFR Wednesday. -Spilde


&&

.MARINE...Updated 1030 AM Tuesday, April 22nd...Moderate to strong
winds, strongest south of Gold Beach will continue through this
evening. North winds will gradually diminish tonight, but seas will
still remain elevated enough for Small craft conditions to continue
with Hazardous Seas Warning conditions south of Port Orford into
Wednesday evening.

Calmer conditions are likely Thursday and Friday. Weak low pressure
will move into the waters Friday bringing scattered showers. Seas
are expected to remain on the low side with no marine hazards on
Friday. -Petrucelli/Spilde


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 11 PM PDT
     Wednesday for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ350-
     356-370-376.

     Gale Warning until 11 PM PDT this evening for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$