Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
Issued by NWS Medford, OR
653 FXUS66 KMFR 131333 AFDMFR Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Medford OR 633 AM PDT Sat Sep 13 2025 .DISCUSSION...Coastal low clouds are expected to linger for most of the morning, breaking up into the afternoon. Otherwise, there are a few patches of early morning valley fog inland. Warm and dry conditions today will be followed by a low with showers likely and a slight chance of thunderstorms tonight through Sunday, mainly in southern Oregon and northward. Warming and drying returns on Monday as a ridge builds through mid-week. Tuesday will be the warmest of the forecast period with highs in west side valleys in the upper 80s to mid 90s, while east side areas are forecast to see temperatures in the 80s. Breezy easterly winds are expected over the Coast Range Sunday night and a broader area Monday night, with moderate ridge top humidity recoveries expected Monday night and Tuesday night. An approaching trough on Wednesday and Thursday is expected to bring only slight cooling, with seasonably warm temperatures that will still be a few to several degrees above normal. The trough passage is most likely to occur on Friday with a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms. A brief, dry break with ridging between weak systems is forecast for next weekend. && .AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...A mix of LIFR/IFR extends from the coastal waters into the coastal valleys, including the lower Rogue, Coquille, Camas, and lower Umpqua. For KOTH, North Bend, LIFR is expected to lift to MVFR by 18Z this morning. Breaks in the coastal clouds are expected to develop this afternoon. For inland sites, VFR conditions are likely through this evening with generally light winds and mostly clear skies. An approaching low will bring showers and a slight chance of thunderstorms to the coast this evening into Sunday morning. Showers spread inland overnight through Sunday afternoon. This will include areas of MVFR and mountain obscuration accompanying showers. This will also include a slight chance of thunderstorms for south central Oregon early Sunday morning, lingering for eastern Lake County through Sunday afternoon. -DW && .MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 13, 2025... Northwest swell continues to build into the region and will persist through the weekend. However, conditions will remain below advisory levels through Sunday morning. By this evening, an approaching low will bring showers, with a slight chance of thunderstorms late tonight into early Sunday morning. Additionally, a thermal trough may support wind-driven steep seas as early as Sunday afternoon into Monday evening. North winds will be strongest south of Cape Blanco. && .FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 AM PDT Saturday, September 13, 2025...A low will move into the area Saturday night and Sunday bringing rain showers and chances for isolated thunderstorms. Wetting rain is likely along the coast (60-80% chance) Saturday night into Sunday, with lower chances (10-50%) inland across southwest Oregon. Northern California zones are expected to see lower chances for any precipitation and wetting rain (5-25%. Fire weather concerns include a slight chance of thunderstorms along the coast Saturday night and early Sunday morning, and from the Southern Oregon Cascades east Sunday morning and afternoon. Additionally, a moderate to strong warming and drying trend is expected Monday morning and Tuesday. Moderate east winds are expected across the coastal ranges early Monday morning with moderate ridgetop recoveries. Then, on Tuesday morning, winds decrease (with the exception of breezy east winds on the Umpqua Divide, in far northern Jackson County) but moderate to locally poor ridge top are expected. Moderate ridgetop recoveries are expected again on Wednesday morning. A weak and dry front is expected to move into the area Wednesday. This may result in some enhanced afternoon breezes for inland area. Otherwise, expect temperatures to trend less warm Wednesday into Thursday. && .MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... OR...None. CA...None. PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...None. && $$