004
FXUS66 KMFR 261732
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
932 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025

.DISCUSSION...Updated Aviation Discussion.


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.AVIATION...26/12z TAFs...Along the coast, areas of light rain and
local MVFR are possible today, mainly north of North Bend. This
evening and tonight, a front will move onshore and bring drizzle and
rain along the coast with areas of MVFR and local IFR. These
conditions will continue into Thursday morning. Inland, VFR
conditions will be the predominate condition through this evening
and likely through the overnight period. The incoming front is
expected to bring increased high and mid clouds tonight west of the
Cascades. However, if there a period of clearing in the late evening
and overnight period, local IFR in valley fog is possible for
valleys in west of the Cascades. Overall, confidence is low in this
occuring so have kept mention out of the Medford and Roseburg TAFs.
Then, early Thursday morning, local MVFR in low clouds and rain is
expected to develop in the Umpqua Valley, including at Roseburg.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 321 AM PST Wed Nov 26 2025/

DISCUSSION...A nearly stationary front will lift well north of our
area this morning and afternoon. At the same time, a weak dirty
ridge will move into the area. This weak ridge will be enough to
keep the front north, and precipitation north of the area. However,
as is usual the NBM is too high and too far south with the extent of
the precipitation. This despite the fact, the operational models,
SPC high res radar reflectivity and all of the individual ensemble
members suggest the bulk of the precipitation will remain north,
with not much more than intermittent light rain at times over
northern Douglas and Coos County. These areas will be on the cusp of
the southern end of the precipitation. Even though we have a chance
of precip over the northwest part of the forecast area during this
time, odds are it will remain dry in these areas as well.

It wont` be until Thanksgiving Day when a front followed by an upper
trough will move into the area that we actually get a chance of
precipitation, mainly along and west of the Cascades. Even then
rainfall amounts are expected to be light.

After Thursday, the general consensus among the operational models
and ensembles show an upper trough dropping in from the north as an
upper ridge builds in the Gulf of Alaska. If nothing else, this
could usher in a colder air mass Friday into the start of next week.
The question will be the trajectory of the upper trough. The
operational models are in pretty good agreement into early next week.
The ECMWF, GFS ensemble means and clusters show similar solutions
with the upper trough dropping south over land with little or no
over water trajectory. This solution typically leads to dry and
colder weather. However a small percentage of the individual
ensemble members show limited precipitation Saturday night into
Sunday morning.

This is still a ways out, therefore details could change in the
coming days, so stay tuned for the latest updates. -Petrucelli


MARINE...Updated 300 AM PST Wednesday, November 26, 2025...A slight
uptick has occured in south winds has resulted in wind and wave
conditions just reaching Small Craft Advisory levels in areas north
of Cape Arago. These elevated conditions should continue through
Wednesday morning.

The next low pressure system is expected to enter the region
Wednesday night resulting in hazardous conditions due to a
combination of a fresh swell and wind-driven seas. At this time, we
are expecting solid advisory level steep seas across all waters, but
isolated areas of very steep seas are possible across our waters
north of Cape Blanco. These conditions are possible Wednesday night
through Friday morning. Rain showers are also likely over the waters
Thursday. North winds then return this weekend and persist into
early next week. -BPN

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.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 10 AM PST this
     morning for PZZ350-370.

&&

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