876
FXUS66 KMFR 272209
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
209 PM PST Thu Nov 27 2025

.DISCUSSION...Overall, the weather pattern for the PacNW, at least
here in southern Oregon and northern California, will be rather
benign over the next several days, and also even well into the
first week of December. Aside from some late-night and morning
fog/low clouds, we expect mostly low impact events through the
remainder of the holiday weekend and into next week. This is
because the flow pattern, initially split flow, will become N-NW
with an upper ridge building out around 40N and 140W. Systems
that arrive from the N don`t bring much moisture.

One such system, currently off the Washington coast, will move to
our north tonight, the tail end of which is bringing some light
showers across mainly NW sections this afternoon (that`s about
it). Some of these showers will linger over there tonight (but
probably won`t amount to much more than a few hundredths here or
there -- perhaps a tenth of an inch or so from around Reedsport
northward). These showers will end Friday morning as upper support
shifts to the east and heights rise. Another system will swing
through eastern WA, NE Oregon and into the Great Basin Sat night
into Sunday. This "inside slider" type system will bring little,
if any, precipitation with just slight chance-chance (15-35%)
PoPs in northern areas, followed by a brief period of N-E breezes
(but nothing atypically strong) Sunday into Monday. A closed upper
low will stay well offshore to the south/west.

Models show the upper ridge taking hold offshore much of next
week. This will keep the flow from the N-NW across our area.
Another disturbance will come SSE along the British Columbia coast
Monday night and into the PacNW Tuesday, following a similar path
to its predecessor, with possibly another one out around next Thu
night or Friday. Each of these might bring low chances (15-35%)
of precipitation, mainly across northern areas, the mountains, and
east side during those periods, but nothing that`s too impactful.
So, what this boils down to is a "dry much of the time" forecast
with temperatures running close to the seasonal averages - perhaps
a bit above normal on daytime highs. We should mention that there
may be marine/surf hazards due to distant storms (south of the
Aleutian Islands), especially early next week, so be sure to
check out the marine/beach hazards discussions below if you`re
planning any beach activity/fishing next week. -Spilde

&&

.AVIATION...27/18z TAFs...A cold front will move onshore in the
next couple of hours. Soundings indicate some potential for low-
level wind shear near the coast (North Bend) for the next hour or so
as surface winds are from the SE and winds just off the ground
(about 1000 ft AGL) are near 40kt from the SSW. With the front
moving onshore, expect winds to shift and become gusty along the
coast after 19z. Meanwhile, low-level moisture will bring MVFR
ceilings, higher terrain obscuration) and scattered light showers
from the coast inland to the coast range mountains,
the Illinois/Umpqua valleys, and over to the Cascades. There`s a
less than 10% chance of any measurable precip making it farther
south and east than that (including here in Medford). Most inland
areas will be VFR through this evening.

Later tonight, light showers and MVFR will persist along the coast.
Some inland areas could also see brief showers, but things should
stabilize a bit overnight and this may result in IFR/LIFR
ceilings/fog in the Umpqua/Rogue/Illinois and lower Klamath basins.
These conditions likely last through late morning, but could
become VFR 18-20Z. -Spilde

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Thursday, November 27, 2025...Gusty
southwest winds will persist through the afternoon north of Cape
Blanco, then gradually diminish overnight. Meanwhile, a heavy
northwest swell is building into the waters today. These conditions
will maintain steep seas for all waters, with very steep seas north
of Cape Blanco due to a mix of wind waves and the heavy swell.

Conditions improve late Friday as winds turn northerly and seas
diminish. North winds persist through the weekend and into early
next week and conditions hazardous to small craft could return south
of Cape Blanco on Sunday. Meanwhile, a long period swell (peaking
around 6 to 9 ft at 16 to 19 seconds) builds in the waters early
next week, which could maintain advisory level conditions into early
next week. /BR-y

&&

.BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 200 PM PST Wednesday, November
27, 2025...Buoy guidance shows the potential for a high sneaker
threat beginning Monday morning and possibly continuing through
early Tuesday morning. Guidance shows a long period swell arriving
Monday, first arriving at around 3 to 5 ft at 20 to 22 seconds early
Monday morning, which coincides with the incoming high tide that is
anticipated by 8 am PST Monday morning. While sneaker waves can
occur at any time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. As
confidence increases in this potential, we may need to consider a
Beach Hazards Statement to highlight this threat.

This swell is only expected to peak at around 8 to 10 ft at 16 to 18
seconds Monday afternoon/evening, so we currently don`t anticipate
any high surf conditions at this time. If you have plans to visit
the coast next week, particularly on Monday, please be aware of this
potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for
another day. Sneaker waves run up significantly farther on beaches
than normal. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can
suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the
ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or
trap anyone caught underneath. Remember, NEVER turn your back on the
ocean! /BR-y


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 4 AM PST Friday for PZZ350-370.

&&

$$

MAS/BR-y