691
FXUS66 KMFR 011029
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
329 AM PDT Wed Oct 1 2025

.DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a large and strong upper low
west of Vancouver Island with a southwest flow aloft. Multiple
disturbances will rotate around the upper low resulting in showers
moving from southwest to northeast over the area. Rainfall amounts
compared to the past couple of days will be less overall, but
locations that get caught under a heavier showers could see higher
rainfall amounts. With this type of pattern, it`s usually difficult
to determine where the heavier showers will set up. Gusty breezes
are expected this afternoon and evening for east of the Cascades and
also west of the Cascades, but they won`t be strong enough to
warrant any advisories.

Isolated showers are likely tonight into Thursday, with most hours
and locations dry as we transition towards a dry and milder pattern
late this week into next weekend.

The models are in pretty good agreement showing dry and milder
weather Friday through the weekend.

An upper low will move south through the area Friday. Most locations
will be dry, except for a few showers in southeast Lake, and Modoc
County on the backside of the departing upper low.

Dry weather is likely this weekend into the early part of next week
with a dry northerly flow aloft with a strong upper ridge positioned
offshore. It will be milder with afternoon temperatures slightly
above normal for the interior. Overnight lows will be chilly,
especially east of the Cascades starting Saturday morning with
mostly clear skies and longer nights.

At the same time, thermal trough will develop with offshore flow
setting up with gusty breezes near and at the ridges in southwest
Oregon and western Siskiyou County -Petrucelli


&&

.AVIATION...01/12Z TAFs...Along the coast and just offshore, MVFR
ceilings are expected to persist through this morning, then
improving to VFR in the afternoon due to increasing instability.
Showers will pass by at times and could result in brief periods of
MVFR ceilings, but confidence is low on the timing and duration,
therefore we`ll keep VFR ceilings as the prevailing condition this
afternoon.

Inland terminals, VFR conditions are expected to continue through
the TAF period with gusty afternoon and early evening breezes.
However, the higher terrain could end up partly obscured in showers.
-Petrucelli


&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 AM PDT Wednesday, October 1, 2025...Winds
will remain breezy today. Meanwhile, building west swell and
residual wind driven seas will result in continuing steep to very
steep seas through Thursday afternoon. Steep seas will gradually
diminish Thursday night through Friday morning.

An upper trough will move from north to south in central Oregon and
in it`s wake will be a developing thermal trough resulting in
increasing north winds during the day Friday and could persist
through the weekend and into early next week. -Petrucelli


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 AM PDT early this morning for
     PZZ350-370.

&&

$$