792
FXUS66 KMFR 021726
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
926 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Conditions are expected to improve later this morning/early
afternoon with VFR conditions expected through the afternoon and
parts of the evening period. Valley fog and low clouds are
expected to redevelop tonight which would impact both KMFR and
KRBG. Some uncertainly here, but IFR conditions are likely
overnight for both KRBG and KMFR. However, LIFR conditions have at
least a 55% chance overnight for these two terminals. Otherwise,
expecting high clouds through the second half of this cycle with
generally light wind speeds. However, KLMT will have some breezy
(at times) conditions this afternoon.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 400 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025/

UPDATE...Aviation Discussion Updated.

AVIATION...02/12z TAFs...Valley fog with IFR to LIFR conditions is
present in valleys west of the Southern Oregon Cascades and locally
in valleys east of the Cascades. As a weak disturbances moves into
the area,  low and mid clouds move into the coast and Umpqua
early/mid this morning, expect fog to lift to MVFR for these areas,
then improve to VFR late this morning into this afternoon.
Elsewhere, fog may persist longer into the late morning, before
lifting and clearing.  Areas of fog and low clouds, with IFR and
LIFR, are expected to redevelop in area valleys tonight into
Wednesday morning.

PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 325 AM PST Tue Dec 2 2025/

DISCUSSION...

Key Points:

* Limited impacts are expected through late this week.
* Morning fog is expected in valleys west of the Cascades this
  week.
* There is a risk for sneaker waves along the coast today.
* Chances for precipitation develop Friday, with increasing
  chances Friday night into Saturday
- Moderate to locally heavy rain is possible at the coast
    - Generally light to moderate precipitation inland
    - Snowfall for elevations mainly above 6,000 ft

Overnight, low clouds and fog have developed in valleys west of
the Southern Oregon Cascades and locally valleys east of the
Cascades.  A weak upper trough is sliding down the east side the
ridge, which is centered offshore. This disturbance will bring
some lower and middle clouds to the coast and inland into Douglas
County this morning with fog likely to lift in the mid morning. There
is a low chance (10-30%) for light rain along the coast from Cape
Blanco. Elsewhere, expect dry weather and valley fog is expected
to lift in the late morning. Breezy to locally gusty north to
northwest winds (gusts 15-25 kt) are expected east of the Cascades
this afternoon as this disturbance tracks inland.

Tonight, the shortwave trough will shift southeastward. Then, on
Wednesday, the upper ridge will strengthen over the area and
remain in place into Thursday. Overnight temperatures are expected
to trend cooler as cold air advects into the area from the north.
Overnight/morning valley fog is likely again Wednesday and
Thursday.

Late in the week, there is a potential for  active weather as a
series of fronts moves over the ridge and into the Pacific
Northwest. Ensembles are in fairly good agreement with the
general pattern and bringing moderate to high chances for
precipitation into the area, with highest chances focused from
the southern Oregon Cascades west. However, there remains
variability in how far south these fronts will extend and how
much precipitation is likely with them. The chances for
precipitation develop as early as Thursday night with increasing
chances Friday into Saturday. This pattern is forecast to persist
into Sunday. The National Blend of Models indicates precipitation
amounts ranging from 0.3 to 1.5 inches along the coast and into
Douglas County and the south- central Oregon Cascades, with
highest amounts across Coos and northern Douglas counties. Snow
levels are forecast to be high (7500-8500 ft) Friday, lowering
slightly to 6000-7000 feet Saturday. So, expect mainly light snow
over higher mountains in the south-central Oregon Cascades.

MARINE...Updated 200 AM PST Tuesday, December 2, 2025...Breezy
to gusty northerly winds will continue through Wednesday, with
winds reaching Small Craft Advisory levels from Port Orford
southward. Additionally, long period west swell will peak today (8
to 9 feet at 17 seconds and combined seas of 8 to 11 feet) then
persist tonight and Wednesday. Steep, combined seas are expected
across the waters south of Cape Blanco through at least Wednesday.
Additionally, some areas south of Gold Beach may see brief
Hazardous Seas late tonight into Wednesday. Conditions are
expected to improve by late Thursday. Friday into the weekend,
south winds will develop as a frontal system moves into the area and
seas will increase.

BEACH HAZARDS/HIGH SURF...Updated 215 PM PST Monday, December
1, 2025...A long period swell is expected to build to around 7 to 9
ft at 16 to 18 seconds late this afternoon into Tuesday morning with
combined seas of 9 to 11 feet. While seas will be steep, high surf
conditions are not expected along beaches. However, these conditions
will bring a risk for dangerous sneaker waves. If you have plans to
visit the coast today, please be aware of this sneaker wave
potential and consider rescheduling your ventures to the beaches for
another day. These waves can wash over rocks and jetties and can
suddenly knock people off of their feet and sweep them into the
ocean. They can also move logs or other objects which could crush or
trap anyone caught underneath. While sneaker waves can occur at any
time, the greatest risk is on an incoming tide. Please be aware of
the tides if venturing out onto the beaches. Remember, NEVER turn
your back on the ocean!

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement until 1 PM PST this afternoon for ORZ021-
     022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 4 PM PST
     Wednesday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$