604
FXUS66 KMFR 061133
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
433 AM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025

...New Aviation Section...


.AVIATION (12Z TAFs)...

An upper level disturbance and associated front will impact the
region today bringing showers and IFR/MVFR conditions. Timing of
showers may be difficult today; therefore, categorical changes at
the terminals may be difficult as well. That said, looking at a
combination of low ceilings and visibility restrictions through
this TAF cycle.

-Guerrero

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 347 AM PDT Sun Apr 6 2025/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows a cold front approaching the
coast. Radar image also shows some showers over portions of Douglas
County and offshore. The bulk of the precipitation early this
morning should be over the marine waters and the coastal counties.

The front will slowly move inland during the day, with most of the
precipitation remaining along and west of the Cascades. East of the
Cascades will be dry with moderate to occasionally strong winds, but
winds should remain below advisory criteria.

Moderate to heavy precipitation is likely today along the coast,
especially from Cape Blanco south, and along the coastal mountains.
Moderate precipitation is also likely farther inland, but not until
later in the afternoon into early this evening.

The front will move inland Sunday evening as a shortwave trough acts
as a "kicker" pushing the front along and east of the Cascades this
evening, followed by post frontal showers tonight into Monday.

A relative break in the action is expected Monday night into Tuesday
morning with precipitation becoming isolated and mainly confined to
along and west of the Cascades. Another, but weaker front will move
into the area Tuesday afternoon. The best chance for precipitation
Tuesday should be along the coast, coastal mountains, Cascades, and
north of the Umpqua Divide.

500mb heights will increase Tuesday evening and night, with
precipitation diminishing and shifting north. Wednesday will be dry
and milder, with afternoon temperatures in the low 70s for the
interior westside valleys, and mid to upper 60s east of the
Cascades.

Wednesday night is expected to be dry, then another front will
arrive at the coast towards midday Thursday, then moving inland
Thursday afternoon. This front will bring a quick shot of
precipitation along the coastal mountains. However rainfall amounts
are not expected to be anything significant. Elsewhere precip
amounts will be light.

Most hours and locations will be dry Friday. Next weekend, there are
varying solutions with the overall pattern. The operational ECMWF
and individual ensemble members show a dry solution with milder
temperatures with the upper level pattern showing very weak
troughiness. The operational GFS shows a a stronger upper trough and
front moving into the area. The individual ensemble members lean
towards a wetter solution, but several of them show a dry solution.

Looking further into the clusters basically show a split solution
between cooler and wetter and dry and warmer, with slightly higher
than 50% leaning towards the dry and warmer solution. -Petrucelli

AVIATION...06/06Z TAFs...VFR conditions will prevail overnight,
although precipitation will begin to approach the Oregon coast later
tonight. In fact, there are already some echos showing up on radar
over the waters. The bulk of the rain will arrive at the coast by
late Sunday morning, then spread across the area through Sunday
evening, and we could see MVFR ceilings and perhaps some IFR
visibilities under the heavier rain. The front will also produce
gusty south winds along the coast, over the coastal waters, and
across the East Side, with mountain wave turbulence possible.  -BPN

MARINE...Updated 300 AM Sunday, April 6th...Southerly
winds will increase today ahead of a front, and this will lead to
steep seas across all waters. Additionally, a moderate long period
swell (10-13 ft @ 15 to 18 seconds) will build across the waters
today, with seas peaking this afternoon around 13-14 ft. These
conditions are expected to result in steep and hazardous seas
through at least Monday. Additional fronts are expected throughout
the week, and steep seas are likely to continue through early parts
of next week.

BEACH HAZARDS...Updated 300 AM Sunday, April 6th...A moderate
long period swell will build into the waters today, and this will
bring a moderate risk of sneaker waves to area beaches through the
afternoon. Sneaker waves can run up significantly farther on beaches
than normal, including over rocks and jetties. These waves can
suddenly knock people off of their feet and quickly pull them into
the cold ocean waters, resulting in serious injury or death. Waves
may also lift driftwood logs, trapping anyone caught underneath.
Keep a safe distance from the ocean during this time, and remember
to NEVER turn your back on the ocean.

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Beach Hazards Statement through this afternoon for ORZ021-022.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT Tuesday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$