787
FXUS66 KMFR 082150
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
250 PM PDT Wed Oct 8 2025

.DISCUSSION...Even though there were more sunny skies today, the
cooldown began with more temperatures near to slightly below
normal. That means more 60s and 70s across the board, and the
warmest will be in the Rogue and Illinois valleys with upper 70s.
The Umpqua Basin already has a larger cooldown because of the
marine stratus entering their area this morning. Tonight, rain
chances return offshore and to the Cascades.

Tomorrow, southwesterly winds will turn southerly and increase. The
strongest winds will be found in the Shasta Valley and east of the
Cascades. There will be a chance for rain starting tonight for the
Cascades and off the coast. The Cascade chances will shift
slightly westward to the Rogue Valley Thursday afternoon. There
will be a 10-20% chance for thunderstorms off the Oregon coast
Thursday afternoon and into the evening as well.

The steady rain will come into the area Friday morning, and this is
when we`re expecting the most rain through the weekend. Rainfall
amounts for most spots west of the Cascades are forecast to reach a
quarter of an inch to half an inch through the day Friday. There is
a 30-40% chance for west side valleys to see half an inch within
that time frame. The highest rainfall amounts will be at the Coos
County coast and into western Josephine and western Siskiyou
counties with 0.75"-1.25" forecast. Leftover showers will be
possible Saturday, but new amounts are in the 0.10"-0.30" range. The
first of two upper lows will be passing east out of our area
Saturday.

The second upper low in the forecast arrives Sunday night into
Monday. The rain activity will return Sunday afternoon for areas
from Douglas County and into the Cascades. More steady rain will
come Monday and will become more widespread to bring all areas west
of the Cascades rain. Monday`s rainfall amounts will be heavier in
the Curry and Coos County coasts, and once again other areas west of
the Cascades can expect a quarter to half an inch. Lighter showers
remain Tuesday with the upper low starting to move out in the
middle of next week, which could bring drier conditions later
Wednesday-Thursday. -Hermansen

&&

.AVIATION...08/18Z TAFs...MVFR stratus extends over the coast and
coastal waters from Cape Blanco northward. The stratus is also
making its way through Coos County and into Central Douglas County
through Roseburg. These conditions are expected to lift to lower VFR
conditions through the afternoon.

Elsewhere, clear skies are expected to persist into this afternoon.
A change in our weather will be apparent across the area later this
afternoon with gusty southwest to west breezes and increasing mid
and high level clouds. By 00Z, early this evening, weak instability
may be sufficient to generate a few showers over and near the
Cascades.

MVFR is expected to return to the coast around 06Z this evening, and
continue into Thursday morning. -DW/Hermansen

&&

.MARINE...Updated 200 PM PDT Wednesday, October 8, 2025...Winds are
diminishing this afternoon, but Small Craft Advisory conditions will
persist through this evening due to residual steep northwest swell.

Swell will diminish further tonight, but meanwhile a compact surface
low is expected to pass about 80 miles offshore, pushing a
relatively sharp front across the coastal waters Thursday morning. A
coastal jet will form along the coast north of Cape Blanco,
producing a period of gusty south winds and steep wind-driven seas.
As a result, the Small Craft Advisory will expire for the waters
south of Cape Blanco, but has been extended through Thursday
afternoon for areas to the north.

A stronger disturbance early Friday into Friday night will be
accompanied by a slight chance of thunderstorms, and may bring a
return of steep seas and advisory strength southerly winds.

Seas become swell dominated Saturday then build Sunday, ahead of
another low pressure system. Northerly winds are expected by
Saturday night with rain chances continuing. The strongest front
with this next system is likely Monday into Monday evening, with
another slight chance of thunderstorms and a possible return of
steep seas. -DW/BPN

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 2 AM PDT Thursday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

&&

$$