403
FXUS66 KMFR 062208
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
208 PM PST Fri Mar 6 2026

.DISCUSSION...Northerly flow aloft under the leading edge of a
Pacific ridge is the guiding feature for area weather today. Mid and
high level clouds are reaching the northern border of the CWA but
are generally breaking up by the time they reach northern
California. This flow is keeping slight chances (20-40%) of
precipitation along the Oregon coast north of Cape Blanco through
this evening. Other areas will see seasonable daytime highs under
those passing clouds. These clouds are minimizing chances for fog
development overnight, although patchy fog may develop in some low-
lying areas.

That ridge flattens and expands over the area over the weekend,
bringing daytime highs 5 to 15 degrees above normal. Most areas will
see highs in the low to mid 60s through the weekend. Low elevation
inland areas in Curry County (Ex: Agness, Brookings) have a 70-90%
chance to see highs exceed 70 degrees. Parts of the Klamath River
Valley may see similar temperatures. On Sunday, the Pacific ridge is
further compressed from the north by a low pressure system moving
into the Gulf of Alaska. This will allow Coos, Curry, and Douglas
counties to see a few degrees of daytime cooling while highs in
Siskiyou and Modoc counties rise. This brings 70-90% chances to
exceed 70 degrees to Highway 89 (McCloud) as well as 50-70% chances
around Adin and south of Alturas.

A Gulf of Alaska low lingers above the Pacific ridge to start next
week, bringing zonal/slightly northwest flow aloft. Cold air
advection to start to week will bring seasonal daytime highs on
Monday and Tuesday, generally in the low to mid 50s across the area,
and cool nighttime lows. For Monday night into Tuesday morning, low
temperatures may reach freezing levels for west side valleys. Snow
levels have come up slightly (in the 2000-3000 foot range on Tuesday
morning and afternoon) and slight precipitation chances limited to
the Oregon coast and Cascades north of Lake of the Woods.
Significant winter impacts are not expected.

While a zonal flow pattern looks to continue into midweek and
beyond, there`s some uncertainty in how moisture will move along the
zonal flow. The chances of moisture moving to our area from the
Pacific is keeping slight but constant 20-40% chances for light
showers along the Oregon coast and Cascades through much of next
week. In the absence of an atmospheric lifting mechanism, shower
chances for other areas are minimal. Towards the end of the week,
long-term models diverge in their expectations. GFS meteograms keep
zonal flow in place, with a few pulses of moisture bringing west
side shower chances for next weekend. ECMWF ensemble members favor a
strengthening ridge with dry conditions and warmer temperatures. At
this point, nothing in the long-term forecast resembles a hazardous
pattern. -TAD


&&

.AVIATION...06/18Z TAFs...Overall, VFR conditions prevail across
the region with areas of MVFR in the Umpqua and LIFR in the Grants
Pass area gradually clearing this morning. VFR will prevail through
the afternoon with some mid-high level clouds streaming overhead and
isolated shower activity along the coast and into the Umpqua Basin
this afternoon. Areas of higher mountain obscurations are expected
today and tonight, especially from the Cascades west. Low clouds are
likely to return to similar areas again tonight, but continued high
level clouds should limit the extent of fog development for West
Side Valleys. /BR-y

&&

.MARINE...Updated 100 PM PST Friday, March 6, 2026...Swell dominated
seas will persist into early Saturday, gradually lowering some this
afternoon. Meanwhile, north winds will increase some this afternoon
from Brookings southward, and this could lead to a brief period of
advisory conditions this afternoon/evening. North winds increase and
spread northward Saturday afternoon into Sunday, then persist into
early next week. Steep seas are expected from Gold Beach southward
by Saturday afternoon and are likely to persist into early next
week. Areas of very steep seas are possible from Brookings southward
on Monday. Improving conditions are possible around mid-week. /BR-y


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...None.

CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory from 4 PM Saturday to 5
     AM PST Monday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$