626
FXUS66 KMFR 191801
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
1101 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024

...Updated the aviation section...

.AVIATION...19/18Z TAFS...Patchy LIFR will linger at the coast into
the early afternoon, from Cape Arago north, and south of Brookings.
Then, breezy north winds develop at the coast this afternoon into
the early evening (including gusts up to 30 kts at North Bend), with
strongest winds south of Cape Blanco. LIFR ceilings and visibilities
will return to the coast around 06Z this evening, but with more
limited coverage (mainly north of Cape Blanco) and faster
dissipation (shortly after 14Z Friday morning) than is occurring
today.

Inland, areas of MVFR ceilings in the central and southern Umpqua
Valley, including at Roseburg, are eroding but will persist in the
southern portion of the valley into this afternoon. A few patches of
MVFR are expected to return to the southern Umpqua Valley late
tonight into the early morning. Otherwise, VFR conditions are
expected to continue across the area through the TAF period.
-DW

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 847 AM PDT Thu Sep 19 2024/

DISCUSSION...Satellite image shows marine stratus along the coast
north of Cape Blanco and from about Gold Beach south, although
Brookings has just cleared out withing the last hour. Elsewhere
it`s clear and it will remain that way through this afternoon.
However a few high clouds will move in from the northwest this
afternoon. The marine stratus will burn off during the morning
with clear skies by late morning. The forecast is on track and no
updates are needed.

A quick look at some of the guidance is pointing towards a rather
quiet weather pattern for the next 10 days with continued dry
weather. -Petrucelli


MARINE...Updated 830 AM Thursday, September 19, 2024...A thermal
trough has brought gusty northerly winds, building steep seas in
waters south of Cape Blanco. Steep seas will spread to waters
north of Cape Blanco later this morning, with very steep and
hazardous seas expected south of Pistol River through Friday
afternoon. Periods of very steep seas may be possible as far north
as Gold Beach into Friday evening. Occasional gale gusts will be
possible on the afternoon and evening as well.

The thermal trough remains in place into early next week, then it
will weaken with winds and seas easing towards Tuesday evening. A
Hazardous Seas Warning is in place for waters south of Gold Beach
and beyond 5 nm from shore, and a Small Craft Advisory will cover
all other waters. Currently these hazards are in place through
Friday at 5 PM, but are likely to extend through the weekend.
-Hermansen/Petrucelli

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 PM PDT Friday
     for PZZ350-356-370-376.

Hazardous Seas Warning until 5 PM PDT Friday for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$