271
FXUS66 KMFR 241000
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
300 AM PDT Tue Jun 24 2025

.DISCUSSION...A weak trough is lifting out of the area today.
Little if any impact is expected with this weak disturbance other
than some low clouds along the coast. Satellite imagery shows low
clouds along the southwest Oregon coast and into the Coquille
Valley and northwest Douglas County. Low clouds are expected to
retreat to the coast later this morning but with light onshore
flow, areas of low clouds may continue through the day.

Meanwhile inland areas will see dry and warm conditions.
Temperatures will warm about 5 to 10 degrees above normal with
highs in the low 90s for valleys west of the Cascades and in the
lower to mid 80s east of the Cascades.

On Wednesday and Thursday, a week trough will move into the
region. This will allow temperatures to trend slightly less warm
with highs expected near normal for this time of year. Coastal
areas will see continued marine pushes during the
overnight/morning periods and low clouds are expected to spread
into the Umpqua Basin, especially Wednesday night/Thursday
morning. Breezy afternoon/evening winds are expected for inland
areas, with strongest breezes in Klamath, Lake, central/eastern
Siskiyou and Modoc Counties. Similar conditions are expected on
Friday. Then heading into the weekend, expect hotter temperatures
as high pressure over the Pacific strengthens and nudges into the
area.




&&

.AVIATION...24/06Z TAFs...Marine stratus is building over the
Pacific and onshore flow should bring IFR or LIFR levels to North
Bend tonight or early Tuesday morning. This layer looks to stay in
place for most of the TAF period, with brief periods of clearing
possible Tuesday afternoon or evening as coastal winds increase.

For inland areas, VFR levels are expected through the TAF period
with only diurnal wind changes to consider. -TAD

&&


.MARINE...Updated 200 AM Tuesday, June 24, 2025...A thermal rough is
bringing gusty north wind and steep seas south of Cape Blanco
through early this morning. Winds and seas will improve around
sunrise. Some locally gusty winds may persist within 10 nm of shore
between Port Orford and Gold Beach today. Generally, light winds and
seas are expected Wednesday and Thursday. A thermal trough develops
Friday into the weekend. Initially, this may result in gusty winds
and steep seas from Cape Blanco south. Then, models indicate winds
may strength and steep wind driven seas may develop for all areas on
the weekend.


&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /Issued 229 PM PDT Mon Jun 23 2025/

LONG TERM DISCUSSION...Heading into the weekend, ridging finally
begins to nudge into the region, and the thermal trough is
expected to redevelop along our southern coast. As a result,
temperatures will see a quick warm up through Saturday and Sunday
and into early next week, with highs rising about 10 to 15 degrees
above normal for late June.

Ensemble suites are starting to show a potentially interesting
pattern developing early next week. With the ridge passing just
to our east and strengthening as it moves over the Rockies, a
trough develops off the coast of California, which then attempts
to move onshore around Monday, and according to some models, takes
on a negative tilt as it does so. This would allow the area to tap
into monsoonal moisture from the south, and is a prime pattern
for thunderstorms in our forecast area. Have left mention of rain
or thunderstorms out of the forecast for now, mainly due to being
a week out and with low confidence, but will reassess the
situation over the next few forecast cycles.

Lastly, it is worth noting that while outside of the typical
forecast period of concern, the majority of ensemble members
across all suites are showing another deep trough somewhere over
the West Coast middle/late next week (including Independence Day),
in a pattern similar to the cool and showery pattern we
experienced here over the last few days. -BPN


&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...CA...None.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 5 AM PDT early
     this morning for PZZ356-376.

&&

$$