527
FXUS66 KMFR 242139
AFDMFR

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Medford OR
239 PM PDT Mon Aug 24 2026

.KEY MESSAGES...

* Isolated thunderstorms around Lake County this afternoon and
  evening.

* Warmer than normal temperatures continue into Tuesday.

* Temperatures trend lower through the week.

* A dry cold front will push onshore Thursday evening with
  temperatures moving even lower into Saturday.

&&

.DISCUSSION...

KMAX is picking up on some echos in eastern Lake County this
afternoon with some virga or light showers at the moment. These
lighter echos will eventually give way to some thunderstorms later
this afternoon or in the early evening. The SPC HREF has a 50-60%
chance of some cloud to ground lightning in southern Lake and
Harney counties later this evening. We`re not expecting any severe
weather, although gusty winds are possible due to dry inverted V
soundings up to 600-550 mb.

Temperatures are also on the warm side this afternoon as highs
will push into the 100 degree mark here in Medford. Our usual
high is around 90 here in late August, so definitely warmer than
normal this afternoon.

Fog, low clouds and perhaps some drizzle will also cover coastal
areas later tonight. An upper level wave will approach the Oregon
coast and that little lift will give us a chance of some lighter
drizzle. This is usually picked up by the NAM and we`re seeing
both the NAM and GFS put down some QPF along the coast tonight.

By Tuesday into Wednesday, the upper level wave mentioned
previously will linger off the coastline of the Pacific Northwest.
We`ll see lighter onshore flow during this time, which will help
keep our temperatures cooler and near normal for this time of
year. Eventually, this wave will move eastwards into Thursday with
a dry cold front moving onshore around Thursday evening.
Temperatures will fall even lower into the mid to perhaps upper
80`s. Some ensemble members are predicting rain over our area,
although the probability is <5%. Therefore, a dry cold front is
most likely Thursday evening.

Heading into the weekend, this cooler west to northwesterly flow
will likely persist with near normal temperatures. The chance of
rain here is low with a 10% chance east of the Cascades Friday
evening. The NBM and WPC are also predicting a 20% chance of rain
north of Douglas County Saturday. So the best chance of rain
remains to the north in Portland`s area.

-Smith

&&

.AVIATION (18Z TAFs)...

Satellite imagery shows the marine layer retreating which has
allowed VFR conditions to come to fruition for KOTH, but expecting
the stratus to fill back in overnight bringing IFR conditions once
again. Inland terminals, expecting some high clouds today and
enhanced breezy winds, but conditions will remain VFR through this
cycle.

-Guerrero

&&

.MARINE...Updated 230 PM PDT Sunday, August 24, 2026

Fresh northerly swell mixed with wind waves will keep seas
hazardous to smaller crafts through most of today and this
afternoon. Seas will become low by Tuesday and Wednesday as wave
heights top out around 3 to 4 feet. Waves will increase before
the weekend with slightly stronger northerly winds.

-Smith

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...Updated 200 PM PDT Monday, August 24, 2026...Red
Flag Warning remains in effect until 8pm for westside areas
including Siskiyou Mountains, Southern Cascade Mountains, and the
Rogue Valley in Oregon, as well as western/central parts of Siskiyou
County in northern California. The warning is in effect for strong
winds and low RH. Several observations sites within the warned area
have either hit or been very closer to criteria as of early this
afternoon with several more hours of peak heating to go in addition
to reaching our peak wind speeds later this afternoon. We do
anticipate these critical fire weather conditions to come to
fruition today and we will maintain the warning through early this
evening.

Additionally, we have a weak upper level disturbance passing through
the region today, and weak isolated thunderstorms have developed
over northern California and southern Oregon. We expect these
chances to continue through early this evening which may impact
eastern Modoc County and southern/eastern Lake County. However, not
expecting much in terms of coverage or lightning, so there is not a
warning out for these thunderstorm chances.

Otherwise, elevated fire weather conditions will continue this week
as dry conditions coupled with enhanced breezes reoccur daily under
our typical summer-like pattern. We could see isolated areas of
critical fire weather conditions, especially Wed-Fri for eastside
areas. Fortunately, we will have moderate to good overnight
recoveries mid/late next week which should help mitigate this
threat. That said, cannot rule out critical fire weather conditions
that may lead to further Red Flag Warnings. &&

&&

.MFR WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
OR...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for ORZ621>623.

CA...Red Flag Warning until 8 PM PDT this evening for CAZ280-281.

PACIFIC COASTAL WATERS...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM PDT this
     evening for PZZ370-376.

&&

$$