737
FXUS62 KMFL 132232
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
632 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

No major changes to the forecast this cycle. Surface high pressure
and mid level ridging remain in control today. Latest ACARS
soundings from around South FL show PWAT values ranging 1.5-1.8
inches. East coast sea-breeze is already over western portions of
the metro, and the Gulf coast sea-breeze is expected to develop this
afternoon. They will be the main focus for convective development
this afternoon into early this evening, with the highest PoPs
focused over inland areas and SW FL, although with a weaker push of
the east coast sea-breeze today, western portions of the metro may
see a few storms as well. High temps this afternoon will be in the
low to mid 90s, with heat indices over 100 degrees through early
evening.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Mid-level ridging and an area of surface high pressure will continue
to build in from the western Atlantic today, promoting light to
moderate southeasterly winds near the surface. Drier air will
continue to filter in along the atmospheric column; PWATs on the
ACARS soundings early this morning have been trending below
climatological means early this morning, and are forecast to
continue doing so for the remainder of the day. Sea breezes along
both coastlines will once again provide the main lifting mechanism
for showers and thunderstorms to develop this afternoon. High-res
model guidance shows activity developing along the western
extents of the East Coast suburbs and across the interior,
propagating westward later in the evening. Coverage should remain
isolated to scattered in nature.

Temperatures today will remain in the low 90s across the East Coast,
but would reach the mid 90s across the southwest and interior early
in the afternoon. Overnight temperatures will also remain balmy,
dropping to the mid 70s and low 80s. Heat indices will reach the low
100s and will approach advisory criteria, but confidence regarding
coverage and duration remains poor at this time.

Ridging will become more fully established on Thursday and moisture
will remain slightly below climatological norms, with sea breeze
interactions once again driving scattered convection in the
afternoon.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Surface high will remain in place across the western Atlantic Ocean
and the Florida peninsula for much of the week, promoting light
easterly-southeasterly flow and seasonal afternoon showers each day.
Activity will be sea breeze driven and mostly clustered over
interior and southwest Florida. Temperatures will reach the low-mid
90s each afternoon and there will be a marginal concern for heat
indices nearing or exceeding advisory values across the whole CWA,
especially on Friday and Saturday.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 630 PM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

VCSH for a few more hours and then mainly clear conditions
expected overnight. SE winds around 10 kts becoming light and
variable overnight. SW winds at APF for a couple more hours and
then becoming light and variable. Additional showers and storms
Thursday afternoon into early evening may result in brief flight
restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 159 AM EDT Wed Aug 13 2025

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue today.
Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the
west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except
around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough
seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  92  80  92 /  10  30  10  20
West Kendall     77  92  77  92 /  10  40  10  20
Opa-Locka        79  93  79  94 /  10  30  10  20
Homestead        78  91  78  91 /  20  30  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  79  91  80  91 /  10  30  10  20
N Ft Lauderdale  79  92  80  92 /  10  30  10  20
Pembroke Pines   79  95  80  94 /  10  30  10  20
West Palm Beach  77  92  78  92 /  10  40  10  20
Boca Raton       78  94  79  93 /  10  30  10  20
Naples           79  92  78  94 /  30  50  20  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF