789
FXUS62 KMFL 181150
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
650 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 639 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

    - High risk of rip currents for all Atlantic beaches continues
      today.

    - A warming trend continues through the rest of the work week
      and into the weekend with temperatures remaining in general
      above normals.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Ensembles and global solutions show good agreement in having the
broad high pressure system over the w Atl migrating further east,
while its associated sfc ridge axis moves right over the southern
half of the Florida peninsula. This will result in lighter winds
over land and wind direction shifting to a more southerly flow.

The overall synoptic scenario will bring a warming trend as weak but
persisting southerly air advection continues. Afternoon highs today
should climb into the L-M80s, including most Atlantic metro areas.
Similar pattern continues on Thursday with highs in the M-U80s
across much of SoFlo, warmest over interior areas.

Negligible POPs will prevail in the forecast, although can`t rule
out a few quick east coast showers each afternoon, which will be
shallow and brief.

Enhanced radiational cooling and enough lingering low lvl moisture
may result in some fog potential tonight into Thu morning. Best
chances will again reside over interior and western areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Models keep the area under the western side of a broad, deep-layered
high pressure ridge through Saturday with a relatively stable and
dry airmass remaining in place. Continue to expect little to no
measurable POPs, outside of maybe a brief coastal shower each
afternoon.

The warm trend will likely peak in the Fri-Sat timeframe when max
temps will likely hit L90s on some interior locations.

The synoptic pattern quickly changes on Sunday with long range model
solutions depicting a mid/upp trough racing eastward over the E
CONUS, eroding the ridge across SoFlo. Meanwhile, an associated
frontal boundary will push southward across the peninsula, nearing
central Florida by Sunday afternoon. As of latest guidance, the best
U/L dynamics and moisture pool should remain well north of the area
as the FROPA looses much of its energy by the time it reaches SoFLo.
ATTM, POPs for Sun Afternoon remain in the 15-20% range, with mainly
isolated showers expected with this FROPA.

Temperatures cool down a little on Sunday, but with afternoon highs
still remaining in the M-U80s.

Winds behind the FROPA will shift NW and become robust starting Sun
evening. A significant cool down could bring nighttime low temps
down 10-15 degrees compared to previous nights with colder/drier
air advection behind the front intensifying. Afternoon highs will
also drop in a similar fashion with U60s-L70s across SoFlo on
Monday and Tuesday. But these numbers will surely be adjusted as
upcoming model runs become available.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 639 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

VFR conditions should prevail through the period. Winds will veer
out of the south/southeast later this morning, ranging from 5-12
kts, except at KAPF where a Gulf breeze will develop mid
afternoon. Light and variable winds return overnight, with a
medium chance (40-50%) of fog development near KAPF.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

Moderate to fresh southeasterly winds today over the Atlantic waters
and light to moderate southerly winds over the Gulf waters. Seas in
the Atlantic waters remain in the 4-6 ft range today, while seas in
the Gulf will remain 2 ft or less. A few brief showers may still
develop over the Atlantic waters.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 404 AM EST Wed Feb 18 2026

High risk of rip currents will continue today for all Atlantic
beaches. The risk will begin decreasing from south to north in the
next couple of days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  67  82  67 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     82  61  84  62 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        81  65  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        81  66  83  66 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  78  66  81  67 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  79  66  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   82  66  84  66 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  80  64  83  65 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       80  65  82  66 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           81  62  82  63 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Friday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk through Thursday evening for FLZ172.

     High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AR
LONG TERM....AR
AVIATION...ATV