830
FXUS62 KMFL 051819
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
219 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

17z Mesoanalysis and ACARS indicate quite the change in present
weather across South Florida today as a shallow moisture layer at
the surface is overlaid by an expansive Saharan Air Layer from 925mb
to 500mb. This expansive layer of dust has created a stout inversion
with scattered shallow low level cumulus clouds and an upper level
cloud deck present above the saharan air layer. Due to this
inversion, rain chances will remain minimal across the region today
(well below climatological norms) outside the potential of a few
isolated shallow-in-nature showers across inland southwestern
Florida. The arrival and continued persistence of the plume of
Saharan Dust is in large part due to anticyclonic flow around
expansive surface ridging situated across the western Atlantic
waters. Breezy to moderate southeasterly flow will continue across
most of the region for the remainder of today and once again after
sunrise tomorrow. Winds may veer a little more southerly to
southwesterly across the western half of the region due to diurnal
influences. The CAMS (HRRR, RAP, RRFS) show the potential of a few
inland showers this afternoon and tomorrow afternoon but overall
coverage should remain fairly isolated. The combination of upper
level cloud cover and a few low level clouds will keep high
temperatures today in check with highs ranging from the upper 80s to
low 90s across the region. Model guidance indicates a lessening of
upper level cloud cover tomorrow which will allow for high
temperatures to trend a bit higher with highs in the upper 80s to
low 90s along the coast and temperatures in the middle 90s across
southwestern Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through next Wednesday)
Issued at 218 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

The combination of mid-level ridging and being situated on the
periphery of an expansive surface ridge will result in mesoscale
processes dominating the weather regime this weekend with the
continued presence of the Saharan Air Layer in the 850-500mb
keeping a lid on more widespread rain chances. Light southeasterly
winds will pick up after sunrise on the east coast with winds
veering southwesterly along the Gulf coast during the early
afternoon hours. This will result in boundary collisions across
inland areas of South Florida during the afternoon hours with
localized ascent along the boundary resulting in shower and
thunderstorm development. While we remain under mid-level ridging
with 500mb temperatures in the -6C to -7C range, there may still be
enough mid-level dry air for a few strong to marginally severe wind
gusts across inland locations this weekend as modeled DCAPE values
appear to be marginally favorable. Given such a lackluster kinematic
profile underneath mid-level ridging, storm mode will be
multicellular in nature with storms propagating along outflow
boundaries. High temperatures on Saturday and Sunday afternoon will
once again range from the upper 80s to low 90s along the coast with
temperatures in the middle 90s possible across inland southwestern
Florida.

Mid-level ridging begins to break down early next week as a mid-
level trough deepens and advects across the eastern United States.
Veering southwesterly 500mb flow could usher in a greater amount of
mid-level moisture from the northwestern Caribbean Sea and Gulf
which when coupled with the potential of slightly cooler 500mb
temperatures could support higher afternoon rain chances closer to
climatological norms. However, this possibility will hinge on the
depth and timing of the trough, how far south it expands, and how
fast the lingering Saharan dust thins out. Right now, ensemble
guidance seems to favor a weaker trough shifted further northwards
over the Great Lakes and Canada with a stronger ridge across the
Gulf. Meanwhile, NASA/GMAO modeling of the Dust Aerosol Optical
Thickness keeps dust over the region through Monday, although it
does have it the plume gradually thinning out through this period.
Given that we are still several days out, there are certainly
additional details that will need to be ironed out. Timing and the
depth of the trough in relation to South Florida will dictate how
much shower and thunderstorm activity will materialize. The
forecast will need to be closely monitored and adjusted over the
next couple of days as guidance evolves.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 129 PM EDT Thu Jun 5 2025

Occasional and brief ceilings in the 2,000-2,500 ft range mainly
over SE Florida terminals, otherwise VFR conditions will prevail.
Isolated SHRA/TSRA expected to be over the interior South Florida
with most activity remaining well away from terminals. Light SErly
flow will prevail after sunset picking up after sunrise on Friday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  89  78  90 /  10  20  10  30
West Kendall     76  90  75  92 /  10  20  10  30
Opa-Locka        79  91  78  92 /  10  30  10  30
Homestead        78  89  77  89 /  10  20  10  20
Fort Lauderdale  80  87  78  89 /  10  30  10  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  88  77  89 /  10  30  10  30
Pembroke Pines   81  93  79  94 /  10  30  10  30
West Palm Beach  77  89  75  91 /  10  30  10  40
Boca Raton       78  90  76  91 /  10  30  10  40
Naples           74  90  76  91 /  20  40  10  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172-
     173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....Hadi
AVIATION...Hadi