921
FXUS62 KMFL 231139
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
739 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

This weekend`s weather will remain unsettled as a stalled frontal
boundary remains across northern FL, with several areas of weak low
pressure along the boundary. At the upper levels, there is a weak
mid/upper level trough over the SE US which will get absorbed into
the larger trough that will start to dig into the eastern US by late
Sunday. Locally, deep moisture will remain in place with light
westerly flow. HREF and forecast soundings show PWAT values around 2
inches today and Sunday, with deep moisture throughout the column.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
morning will increase in coverage later today aided by peak heating
instability, with a similar pattern expected for Sunday. Much like
yesterday, a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out during the peak
heating of the day. A limited urban/poor drainage flood threat will
continue across the east coast metro, especially with the sea-breeze
meandering close to the coast and interacting with outflow
boundaries from convection throughout the afternoon and early
evening.

High temperatures today and Sunday will be in the low to middle 90s.
Heat indices approaching advisory criteria will be possible, however
afternoon convection should prevent the need for any headlines. Low
temps tonight will be in the middle 70s over the interior and around
80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Early in the upcoming week, the frontal boundary over northern FL is
expected to dissipate. Meanwhile, a trough will dig into the eastern
US and a frontal boundary associated with a system in eastern Canada
will approach the southeast US early in the week and then settle
north of Lake Okeechobee mid to late week. Low level westerly flow
early in the week will finally return to a more typical easterly
flow mid to late week. This will result in the highest PoPs favoring
the interior and east coast on Monday and then switching to interior
and west coast by mid to late week.

Temperatures next week will remain above normal with highs in the
low to middle 90s, and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over
the interior, to around 80 closer to the Atlantic and Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 736 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail early this morning. Light and variable
winds will give way to more westerly/southwesterly flow late
morning, while the East coast seabreeze will attempt to develop.
This could help SHRA/TSRA clustering near East Coast terminals in
the early afternoon hours. Confidence regarding impacts for any
of the sites remains low, so just carrying VCTS for now, but
short-fuse TEMPOs could be needed.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze expected this weekend over the area
waters. Lingering swell from distant post tropical Erin will result
in 2-5 ft seas in the Atlantic this weekend, while Gulf seas will
remain 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms this weekend may result
in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Lingering NE swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for
the Atlantic beaches through this afternoon, with the high risk
continuing for the Palm Beaches through at least Sunday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible this afternoon during high tide
along the Mainland Monroe coast, including the Flamingo Visitor
Center area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  79  94  80 /  60  30  60  20
West Kendall     94  76  94  77 /  60  30  50  10
Opa-Locka        94  79  94  79 /  70  30  60  20
Homestead        93  77  93  77 /  50  30  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  93  79  93  79 /  60  30  60  20
N Ft Lauderdale  94  79  94  79 /  60  30  70  20
Pembroke Pines   96  79  96  79 /  70  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  94  77  94  77 /  70  30  80  20
Boca Raton       96  77  95  77 /  70  30  70  20
Naples           91  80  91  80 /  60  40  60  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 6 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...ATV