074
FXUS62 KMFL 192256
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
656 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

This weekend will be characterized by strong high pressure over the
western Atlantic and upper level ridging across the region. Outside
of some occasional coastal showers off the strong easterly breeze,
mostly dry conditions are expected this weekend. With the tight
pressure gradient in place, breezy conditions will persist with
winds of 15-20 mph and afternoon gusts of 30-35 mph today. Winds
will be dialed back slightly on Sunday, but still breezy with gusts
of 25-30 mph.

Afternoon high temps today will range from the lower 80s across the
east coast metro to upper 80s over SW FL. Low temps tonight will
range from the lower 60s over inland SW FL, to lower 70s across the
east coast metro. High temps on Sunday will be a couple degrees
warmer, generally ranging from the low to mid 80s across the metro
to around 90 over SW FL.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 320 AM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

As we move into the new week, the west Atlantic high and mid-level
ridging will maintain a stronghold of our weather with dry and
stable conditions continuing. Pressure gradients tighten which will
lead to potential for breezy conditions across the east coast metro
and Atlantic waters. There will not be a sufficient increase in the
moisture levels with the air mass still projected to be too dry for
precipitation. Model guidance continues to forecast approximately 50-
70% of normal precipitable water and afternoon dew points in the low
60s in South Florida. Therefore, even with the easterly sea breeze
and warm temperatures, conditions are expected to remain dry and
stable throughout through most of the week. There continues to be no
clear return of much needed moisture and rain, via sea breeze nor
frontal passage, in our extended forecast. The NBM continues to hint
at potential for isolated light rain on Friday or Saturday with ~15-
20% PoPs. No agreement among model guidance about the likelihood for
rain, but the strong easterly winds may help if there is any
increase in moisture. High temperatures will warm into the mid-to-
upper 80s across a majority of the region, with a potential for
above normal low 90s across much of the interior southwestern
Florida. Overnight temperatures will be cool and comfortable, with
outgoing longwave radiation and little sky coverage, allowing for
lows to drop into the 60s, except low 70s along the east coast. With
dry air and very dry fuels regionwide, winds and RH values will be
watched carefully as the conditions will be prime for ignition and
rapid burns.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 655 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

VFR conditions through the TAF period. Easterly winds 10-15kts
overnight increasing Sunday morning gusting to around 20-25kts.
&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Strong easterly winds are expected through the weekend. Hazardous
winds are expected through Sunday night for both the Gulf and
Atlantic waters, with hazardous seas of 6-8 ft in the Atlantic
waters. Seas in the Gulf will peak at 3-5 ft. Conditions improve on
Monday, however cautionary winds will persist.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 102 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

A high rip current risk will remain in effect along Atlantic beaches
through at least early next week. Strong easterly winds and elevated
surf will create life threatening swimming conditions, especially
for inexperienced ocean swimmers. Portions of the Broward and Palm
Beach coasts may experience surf zone waves up to 6 ft throughout
the weekend.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 100 PM EDT Sat Apr 19 2025

Breezy E/SE winds will gust to 25-35 mph through early this
evening, and then 20-30 mph on Sunday. Even though min RH values
will be above critical thresholds, dry vegetation and ongoing dry
weather will result in fire wx concerns this weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  82  72  83 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     68  85  69  84 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        70  85  71  84 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        71  83  72  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  81  72  81 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  82  72  81 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   72  86  72  86 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  70  82  70  83 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       71  83  71  83 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           66  87  67  87 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...Rizzuto