814
FXUS62 KMFL 290531
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
131 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 125 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

 - Lingering showers will continue to dissipate this evening as
   light winds are forecast to prevail overnight.

 - Heat index values over 100 degrees will continue through the
   work week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Wednesday)
Issued at 438 PM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Scattered showers and thunderstorms have developed this afternoon
over the interior and eastern portion of South Florida. However,
southwesterly steering flow, further enhanced by local outflow
boundaries, has kept convective activity generally weak and
transient over land, pushing the development of thunderstorms
offshore. Consequently, the primary focus for shower and storm
activity should remain anchored along the Atlantic coast through the
remainder of the afternoon and early evening before tapering off
after sunset, leading to a generally quiet night.

Conditions will transition tomorrow as drier air associated with a
Saharan dust plume makes its way over the region, lowering forecast
PWAT values to between 1.5 and 1.8 inches. Despite the drier airmass
aloft, surface heating and boundary collisions could still act to
trigger afternoon convection. The highest potential for stronger
storms is expected across Palm Beach County and the vicinity of Lake
Okeechobee, situated along the periphery of the drier airmass. The
main hazards associated with these storms will be frequent
lightning, brief heavy downpours, and strong to marginally severe
wind gusts.

Low temperatures tonight are expected to remain in the upper 70s at
coastal locations and mid 70s across interior areas. Persistent
southwesterly flow will then drive tomorrow`s high temperatures into
the mid to upper 90s across the East coast, which could near or
surpass daily record highs depending on the timing and coverage of
afternoon convection.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Global and ensemble solutions show fair agreement in describing
drier conditions establishing during much of the long term as the
deeper moisture and instability remains over the northern half of
the peninsula through the weekend. Latest NBM seems to also embrace
the likelihood of having a significant intrusion of a SAL that may
last through Saturday. This will result in a reduction in afternoon
convection and less cloud coverage each day.

POPs/Wx coverage drops to 20-40% each afternoon through Friday,
favoring the northern-most areas of SoFlo where the better pool
moisture will reside. Then for the weekend, a series of short wave
impulses will travel along a deepening trough over the E CONUS and
push some of the lingering moisture over northern Florida back into
the area. This will result in increasing coverage with a gradient of
POPs south-to-north from 20-30% around Miami-Dade to 55-60% around
the Lake region.

Temperatures will remain above normals, with highs generally in the
low to mid 90s, and morning lows in the mid 70s over inland South FL
to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 130 AM EDT Wed Jul 29 2026

Generally VFR and L/V conditions through 15Z, then some VCSH/VCTS
may develop this afternoon. Best chances for category impacts will
reside over KDJT and KFXE. Westerly to southwesterly winds will
prevail after 15z with gusts in the 20-25kt range at times.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 412 AM EDT Tue Jul 28 2026

Gentle to moderate west-southwest winds continue during the next
few days across the coastal waters. Scattered thunderstorms are
possible each day, which may result in brief periods of rough seas
and gusty winds. In general, seas are expected to remain around 2
ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  78  95  78 /  20   0  10   0
West Kendall     93  75  95  75 /  20   0  10   0
Opa-Locka        95  78  96  78 /  20   0  20   0
Homestead        93  78  94  78 /  10   0  10   0
Fort Lauderdale  93  79  94  79 /  20   0  20   0
N Ft Lauderdale  94  79  95  78 /  20   0  20   0
Pembroke Pines   95  79  96  79 /  20   0  20   0
West Palm Beach  94  77  94  77 /  30   0  30  10
Boca Raton       93  77  94  77 /  30   0  20   0
Naples           90  80  91  80 /  30  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ068>070-072-074-168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...DPB
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17