Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
511 FXUS62 KMFL 302251 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 651 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 212 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The deep trough over the E CONUS will remain in place today, keeping a stationary sfc boundary over the northern half of the Florida peninsula. 18Z MFL sounding data was showing deep moisture over SoFlo with PWAT values in the ***-*** inches range. The front will help in keeping the moist airmass streaming across the area today and through the rest of the long weekend, with an overall synoptic flow driven by a westerly component dominating the 3-12 km atmospheric column. At the sfc, pressure gradients remain weak enough to keep a prevailing weak westerly weak flow in place, even becoming calm at times. The overall synoptic scenario will continue to support an active summertime convective weather pattern, with latest high-res and ensemble solutions showing enhanced chances for rain and thunderstorms over the eastern half of SoFlo through the rest of this afternoon and early evening. POPs have increased into the 80-85 percent range for the Atlantic metro area, along with thunderstorm chances up to 70 percent. Therefore, expect another round of weather today, with lines of heavy showers and embedded thunderstorms likely developing in the mid-late afternoon hours as sea breezes and outflow boundaries collide. The risk of localized flooding continues with possible accumulations in the 2-3 inches range, occasionally higher, with the heaviest downpours. A main concern remains potential for urban flooding over some of the Atlantic metro areas. Much of southeast Florida remains under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall each day through the rest of the long weekend. Expect high temps in the low 90s before cloud cover increases, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Sunday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 A prolonged period of unsettled weather is fast approaching for South Florida as deep upper level troughing sets up over the Eastern Seaboard. The trough axis is forecast to extend southward along the Florida peninsula, while a corresponding quasi- stationary surface boundary is expected to set up across northern Florida today, supporting sustained enhanced moisture advection from the Gulf as westerly flow develops. This combination of factors will support the development of numerous to widespread showers and thunderstorms this each afternoon this weekend. Activity should begin to develop over the interior in the early afternoon hours each day, then progress eastward over the East Coast metro. Some of these thunderstorms could be strong in nature, with gusty winds in the 30-50 mph range, and small hail. However, the forecast parameter space does not look favorable for more broad severe weather risks. The risk of flooding remains a possibility through the weekend. 24- hour accumulations for each day show widespread 0.5-1.5 inches of rain, with a 1 in 10 chance of higher accumulations up to 2-3 inches in isolated spots. While this in itself is not enough to result in widespread flooding concerns, areas with saturated soils from repeated rounds of heavy rain over the past couple of days could be susceptible to urban/street flooding. Furthermore, the 00Z HREF LPMM also show a couple of isolated pockets of up to 6-7 inches of rainfall over 24 hours for each day, which would be cause for concern if the worst-case scenario were to pan out across the metro area. Following this thinking, I will hold off from issuing a Flood Watch today, but once could be needed down the line for Sunday- Monday as the pattern unfolds and we see how closely observations follow model guidance. Much of southeast Florida remains under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) for excessive rainfall each day this weekend. Highs this weekend will reach the low 90s, while lows could dip to the low-mid 70s overnight. && .LONG TERM... (Sunday night through Friday) Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 The period of unsettled weather will continue through the first half of the week as the upper level trough deepens over the Eastern seaboard as several shortwaves pulse along. The aforementioned surface boundary will gradually drift southward along the peninsula as the week progresses, helping focus moisture across South FL. With moisture and upper level support in place, widespread heavy rain will remain a threat next week, with at least 1 to 2 inches of rainfall forecast each day. With repeated rounds of rainfall every day, the risk for flooding will remain ever-present, especially across the East Coast metro where activity will focus thanks to the persisting westerly flow, and much of South Florida will remain under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of Excessive Rainfall that could lead to flash flooding through Tuesday. This pattern could begin to change near the end of the week as the deep trough finally ejects out over the Atlantic waters. Temperatures during the extended period will start to decrease slightly as we are looking at an increase in rain coverage and cloud cover. High temperatures are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s each day. Overnight lows will range from the low to mid 70s for the Lake Okeechobee and interior regions to the upper 70s for the coasts. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 700 PM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Light westerly winds will become light and variable after 01Z as conditions return to generally VFR for the rest of tonight. A few lingering showers may be in the vicinity of the Atlantic terminals during the early evening hours. Westerly flow returns after 16Z with another round of VCTS Sunday early afternoon, with a brief shift to NE flow later in the afternoon hours. && .MARINE... Issued at 156 AM EDT Sat Aug 30 2025 Light westerly to southwesterly winds develop today across all local waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less across all local waters. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms remain possible each day, which may cause periods of locally gusty winds and rough seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 92 77 91 / 30 70 50 80 West Kendall 75 91 76 91 / 30 80 40 80 Opa-Locka 76 92 76 92 / 30 70 50 80 Homestead 75 91 76 91 / 40 70 50 80 Fort Lauderdale 76 92 76 91 / 30 70 50 80 N Ft Lauderdale 77 92 77 91 / 30 80 50 80 Pembroke Pines 76 93 76 94 / 30 70 50 80 West Palm Beach 75 92 76 91 / 40 80 50 70 Boca Raton 75 93 75 92 / 30 70 50 80 Naples 79 90 78 91 / 30 70 50 70 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...ATV LONG TERM....ATV AVIATION...17