Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
788 FXUS62 KMFL 171717 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 117 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 ...New AVIATION... .UPDATE... Issued at 1224 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 No significant changes made to the forecast for the rest of today and through tomorrow. Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon will continue to favor the interior and SW Florida areas since the predominant flow will be out of an easterly direction. Not expecting a severe threat with this setup. Enough drier air is present in the local atmospheric column that dew points and thus heat indices should remain below heat advisory levels. High temperatures will continue to reach the mid 90s for most of the region today and tomorrow. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Monday) Issued at 1240 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Mid to upper level ridging across the Southeast CONUS continues to weaken today, but is still expected to remain the dominant feature driving local weather across South Florida to end the weekend. This should maintain generally easterly surface flow across the peninsula and allow the east coast sea breeze to dominate over the Gulf breeze, and keep most convective activity over the Everglades and Southwest Florida today. Model guidance is in good agreement regarding a slightly drier air mass remaining across most of South Florida today, helping limit chances for rainfall and keeping heat indices just below advisory criteria for this afternoon. With PWATs ranging between 1.7 to 1.8 inches, this moisture profile will still support scattered thunderstorms developing across interior South Florida and Southwest Florida during the early evening hours today. A few showers or an isolated thunderstorm may impact east coast metro areas during the early morning hours today, although mostly sunny conditions are expected to prevail for the vast majority of the day and any shower or isolated thunderstorm impacts should be fairly limited and short- lived. A similar evolution to the forecast is expected on Monday, although the synoptic pattern begins to change. Mostly sunny conditions prevail for the morning hours with showers and storms developing with the inland progression of the east coast sea breeze during the early afternoon hours. Surface winds will veer to the north as Hurricane Erin continues to curve out in the Atlantic. As the sea breezes push inland, northeast flow should prevail across eastern portions of the area with northwest flow prevailing across Southwest Florida as the Florida peninsula begins to feel Erin`s broad outer circulation. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the low 100s. As is always the case during a South Florida summer, individuals should adjust their activities and precautions in accordance with their own heat tolerance. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 1240 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Hurricane Erin will likely be the primary synoptic feature impacting sensible weather across South Florida through the long term period. Since S FL will be so far removed from the center, afternoon shower and thunderstorm development will still primarily be sea breeze driven each day for the upcoming week. Erin pushes north of our latitudes by early Tuesday which should maintain northerly flow across the area for Tuesday and Wednesday and could advect drier air across the area by Wednesday afternoon, thus slightly limiting shower and thunderstorm coverage for the mid- week period. Surface flow veers to the south- southwesterly direction on Thursday through the beginning of the weekend which could lead to a higher chance for convective impacts across the east coast metro areas, as well as hotter afternoon temperatures across the eastern half of the area. This will be monitored through the week. High temperatures will reach the low to mid 90s with heat indices in the low 100s each day. As is always the case during a South Florida summer, individuals should adjust their activities and precautions && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 116 PM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Scattered showers and thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening mainly over inland and SW FL with VCTS also at just TMB this afternoon for eastern terminals. E/SE winds around 10 kts today, with a westerly Gulf breeze expected this afternoon at APF. winds become light overnight. && .MARINE... Issued at 1240 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Light to moderate easterly winds continue through the remainder of the weekend. Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west- southwesterly winds over the west coast this afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough seas and gusty winds. With the passage of Erin to the east of the Florida peninsula mid-late week, local Atlantic waters could see an increasing north- northeasterly swell during this time period. && .BEACHES... Issued at 701 AM EDT Sun Aug 17 2025 Increasing swell from Erin is expected as early as Tuesday, but more likely mid to late week. This will result in an increasing rip current threat for the Atlantic beaches and possible high surf concerns for Palm Beach county. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 79 93 79 93 / 10 40 20 60 West Kendall 76 93 77 94 / 10 40 20 60 Opa-Locka 78 95 79 95 / 10 40 20 60 Homestead 77 92 77 92 / 10 30 20 60 Fort Lauderdale 79 93 79 92 / 10 40 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 79 93 / 10 40 20 50 Pembroke Pines 80 96 80 96 / 10 40 20 60 West Palm Beach 78 93 78 93 / 10 40 20 50 Boca Raton 78 95 78 95 / 10 40 20 50 Naples 78 92 78 92 / 30 50 30 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Rizzuto LONG TERM....Rizzuto AVIATION...Redman