274
FXUS62 KMFL 191859
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
259 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

South Florida will remain under the influence of a moderate to
strong surface and low-level NE wind flow between high pressure over
the eastern U.S. and the frontal boundary stalled over the lower
Florida Straits. In the mid-levels, the 500 mb high pressure near
South Florida will shift west into the Gulf of Mexico over the next
few days. This will help to filter in some drier air from the north
over the region, gradually eroding the band of deeper moisture and
clouds/light precipitation which has been lying across the area over
the past 24-36 hours.

As a result, expect a gradual decrease in cloud cover and
precipitation coverage this afternoon and evening, with perhaps no
more than a few sprinkles/light showers. By late tonight and early
Sunday, some low level moisture will begin to move into the region
from the NE on the back side of a low pressure area near Bermuda.
This will lead to a few quick-moving showers coming back into the
forecast for the east coast metro areas on Sunday. Model consensus
indicates that rainfall amounts should be mainly in the 0.10 to 0.25-
inch range, and by no means will it be a washout.

Temperatures will remain seasonably mild, with lows tonight in the
upper 60s to mid 70s, and highs Sunday mainly in the mid 80s.

Newly-upgraded Hurricane Oscar east of the Turks and Caicos
Islands is not expected to impact South Florida weather through
the remainder of the weekend (and beyond).

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 258 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Mid level troughing over the Southeastern portion of the county
will eventually close off into a mid level low in the western
Atlantic off the Southeast coastline during the early portion of
the week. This will allow for a dry northwesterly wind flow across
the mid levels to continue across South Florida during the early
to middle portion of the week. At the surface, a rather large area
of high pressure centered off to the north will continue to keep
a rather breezy northeasterly wind flow across the region. While
mid to upper level dry air will remain in place, there will be
enough lower level moisture to support isolated to scattered
shower activity along the northeasterly breeze mainly over the
Atlantic waters as well as the east coast metro areas through the
middle of the week. These showers will be rather brief and fast
moving in nature due to the elevated northeasterly wind flow in
place. High temperatures during the early to middle portion of the
week will generally range from the mid 80s along the east coast
to the upper 80s over Southwest Florida.

For the second half of the week, the mid level low pushes further
to the east in the Atlantic and the mid level flow becomes more
zonal across the region. At the surface, high pressure centered
off to the north continues to keep a northeasterly wind flow over
South Florida. While most areas will continue to remain dry
during this time frame, enough lower level moisture will remain in
place keeping just a slight chance of showers over the Atlantic
waters as well as the east coast. With plenty of subsidence in
place, any shower that does develop will remain low topped and
rather short lived. High temperatures on Thursday and Friday will
generally range from the mid 80s across the east coast metro areas
to the upper 80s across Southwest Florida.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Ceilings will continue improving into the 3,500-5,000 ft range
through the forecast period, with prevailing SCT conditions after
21z. A few SHRA are expected to move back into the region after 09z,
primarily affecting east coast sites but not expected to cause
significant duration of lower ceilings or visibility. Wind 060
degrees 15-20 knots with gusts 25 knots will decrease some after
02z, then return to the higher levels after 14z Sunday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Strong NE winds will continue across the local waters through
early next week, with sustained 20-25 knot winds and gusts to 30
knots. High pressure over the eastern U.S. will weaken and shift
east of the area around mid-week, which will lead to a slight
decrease in wind speeds through the end of the week. Seas will
remain in the 7-9 ft range Atlantic waters and 4-6 ft Gulf waters
through early next week, then subside beginning on Wednesday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 151 PM EDT Sat Oct 19 2024

Latest reports from beach cameras and near shore observations
indicate that high surf conditions continue this afternoon along
the Palm Beach and Broward county coasts, and expected to continue
through the remainder of today. The current High Surf Advisory may
need to be extended in time depending on latest guidance.
Nevertheless, expect rough surf and rip current to continue along
the Atlantic coast for at least a few more days.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            74  85  74  85 /  10  20  20  20
West Kendall     71  86  72  86 /  10  20  20  20
Opa-Locka        74  86  74  86 /  10  20  20  20
Homestead        74  84  74  85 /  10  20  20  20
Fort Lauderdale  74  84  74  84 /  10  20  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  75  85  74  85 /  10  20  30  20
Pembroke Pines   74  87  74  87 /  10  20  20  20
West Palm Beach  74  85  74  85 /  20  30  30  20
Boca Raton       74  86  74  86 /  10  30  30  20
Naples           69  86  71  86 /   0  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Monday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 10 PM EDT this evening for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT this evening for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ630.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Monday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM/MARINE/BEACHES...Molleda
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Molleda