444
FXUS62 KMFL 100533
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
133 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Friday)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Latest analysis and ensembles highlight large scale high pressure
ridging maintaining itself across the region. A couple of weak
disturbances are currently present nearby that will help influence
the local weather mainly today. A nearby surface trough near off
the Atlantic coast will advect northeastward and additionally a
tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is presently located
near Cuba which will advect northwest into the Gulf before
dissipating in the next couple days. While neither of these
features are strong, they will help the continuous infiltration of
deep tropical moisture across South Florida and also provide
extra sources of lift underneath the ridge. Overall, with the
ridge being the most dominant feature, this will help suppress
most of the vertical extent that convection grow. Nevertheless,
diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop primarily in the
afternoon during peak heating and as the sea breezes move inland.
Additional showers and thunderstorms will form as a result of the
aforementioned disturbances, but most of that associated
convection is expected to stay offshore. However, as the surface
trough/mid-level disturbance in the Atlantic/Northern Caribbean
region advects northeastward, there will be chances for some early
morning showers and storms for far southeastern Florida, mainly
for Miami-Dade county areas. By the afternoon hours, this area of
low pressure should be making its way northeastward and away from
the region.

While there is not a high chance for severe weather given the robust
ridge, 500mb temps will still be between -7C to -9C and result in
some steeper lapse rates that could support some stronger updrafts.
Furthermore, model soundings highlight DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which
also supports the possibility for some stronger winds via
downbursts. Therefore, a couple of stronger to marginally severe
storms cannot be ruled out, particularly for interior regions where
the strongest convergence occurs.

The pattern will remain largely unchanged for Friday with the TUTT
continuing to spin just off to the south and perhaps providing for
some earl morning convection again. Beyond that, the focus will
again be on afternoon showers and storms that form as a result of
peak diurnal heating and the sea breezes. High temperatures the next
couple days are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for most areas
with upper 80s in spots immediately along the coasts and beaches.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

For the upcoming weekend, large scale high pressure will continue to
dominate the weather pattern with a ridge aloft and surface high
pressure nearby as well. Ultimately, this will result in a typical
summertime pattern continuing across South Florida with
convection being mainly driven by sea breeze development. The
usual diurnal pattern of convection for this time of year will
remain in place as shower and thunderstorm activity starts to
develop over the local waters and the east coast during the
morning hours before shifting towards the interior and Southwest
Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could
still become strong each afternoon mainly over Southwest Florida
where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide and lift
is maximized. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and
heavy downpours. High temperatures through the weekend will
generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the
lower 90s across Southwest Florida.

Moving into the early to middle portions of next week, the forecast
starts to become a little bit more uncertain as the mid level ridge
pushes northwestward into the Gulf and expands northward into the
Midwest as well as the Mississippi River Valley. At the same time,
another mid level and upper level disturbance to the east will begin
to push towards the Southeast coast. While the general diurnal
pattern of convection will look to remain in place, with rather
light steering flow aloft combined with light winds trying to become
more southerly at the surface, this may help increase the chance of
showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The exact details
still need to be ironed out and will depend heavily on the track and
evolution of this mid level disturbance as it pushes towards the
Southeast coast. Guidance is not in good agreement regarding its
strength and evolution at this time. For now, the latest forecast
increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time
frame, however, the highest chances each afternoon are kept over the
interior and Southwest Florida. This will continue to be monitored
as the week progresses. High temperatures early next week will
generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

Generally VFR prevails for the 06Z TAF cycle. Light and variable
winds for the rest of the night will increase out of the SE by
late morning along with some isolated showers possible near the
east coast terminals. VCTS for the afternoon before activity moves
inland. At KAPF, winds increase out of the SW after 16Z with VCTS
after 19-20Z. Brief MVFR or lower CIGs are possible if any storms
move directly over terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025

A gentle to moderate southeasterly flow will be present across the
Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a lighter
and more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters
through this same time frame. Seas across all of the local waters
will generally remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters
each day.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            90  80  89  80 /  60  40  50  10
West Kendall     90  76  89  77 /  60  40  50  10
Opa-Locka        92  80  92  80 /  60  40  50  10
Homestead        90  80  89  80 /  60  40  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  89  80  89  80 /  60  40  50  10
N Ft Lauderdale  90  80  89  80 /  60  30  50  10
Pembroke Pines   94  82  93  82 /  60  30  50  10
West Palm Beach  91  79  90  79 /  50  30  60  10
Boca Raton       92  79  91  80 /  60  30  50  10
Naples           92  77  92  76 /  50  30  80  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Redman