357
FXUS62 KMFL 031720
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
1220 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

...New UPDATE, AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

  - Dry and comfortable weather for the middle to end of this week.

  - Above average temperatures continue into the end of the week
    with highs increasing to the mid to upper 80s by week`s end.

&&

.UPDATE...
Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

The erosion of a persistent low stratus deck across South Florida
has transpired over the past several hours as diurnal heating (and
the vertical expansion of the low-level boundary layer & mixing
height) has allowed for drier air above 900mb to mix down towards
the surface. This shallow moist layer (confined near the surface) is
present in data from ACARS upper air soundings as well as VuSkew
derived GOES East soundings that depict a large expanse of drier air
aloft. The mixing of drier air down to the surface has occurred in
tandem with the advection of a drier airmass (and decreasing surface
dewpoints) into the region, courtesy of light northerly flow
originating from surface ridging situated at the southern precipice
of the Appalachian Mountains. The transient nature of mid to upper
level features across the eastern United States today will keep any
cold air advection fairly weak across South Florida; with enough
solar insolation today to result in afternoon temperatures still a
few degrees above average (low 80s) compared to seasonal norms
(upper 70s). With precipitable water values and dewpoints forecast
to continue on the downward trend, a pleasant rest of the day is
expected across the region with ample sunshine and any shallow cloud
cover continuing to be confined to the lowest 1km of the
atmosphere.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Thursday)
Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

The weak frontal boundary will push through South Florida this
morning, ushering in some drier air into the local atmospheric
column. Additionally, the upper level ridge centered over the
Caribbean and extending into the Eastern CONUS will provide
subsidence and inhibit any shallow moist layers from having enough
lift to produce weak showers. Surface high pressure will also be
centered over the SE states and further provide inhibition. As a
result, a quiet and comfortable weather pattern is setting up for
the next few days.

High temperatures are expected in the low to mid 80s today and
tomorrow with overnight lows ranging from the mid to upper 50s and
low 60s for the interior and Gulf coast to the mid to upper 60s for
the east coast metro areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Mid-level and upper-level ridging will remain over the Caribbean and
western Atlantic through Saturday before beginning to break down as
longwave troughing enhances across the central and eastern CONUS.
This will lead to ongoing tranquil weather through Saturday before
we begin to see indications of a pattern change in the latter half
of Sunday and heading into next week. With high pressure dominance
through Saturday, temperatures will trend higher than normal in the
mid to upper 80s for Friday through this weekend.

The mid-level ridge will eventually get pushed away from the area as
the strengthening trough over the central and eastern U.S. breaks up
into an overall elongated trough and a deeper shortwave forming over
the southeast and Mid-Atlantic states. An attendant cold front will
advect southwards from this disturbance and ahead of its arrival the
low level wind flow will shift to the south and southwest over the
weekend, leading to an increase in moisture advection back into
South Florida. As a result, with this cold front expected to be a
more robust one compared to the last couple, the front will be able
to lift this warm and moist air out ahead of it and increase the
chances for some rain showers and thunderstorms mainly for the
second half of Sunday as well as Monday. Despite the increase in
moisture, model soundings this far out do suggest that there will
not be an overwhelming amount of instability as the frontal passage
occurs. Thus, most showers and storms that occur during this time
frame could end up being of the garden variety with a couple of
heavier localized pockets. Overall, any QPF forecast is still highly
uncertain at this time but will begin to be more refined in the next
few days. In general, not expecting much in the way of impactful
weather with this system at this time. Behind this front that right
now looks to pass through the region on Monday, overall quiet
weather returns for the end of the forecast period heading into the
middle of next week as a substantially drier air mass returns to the
region.

Temperatures for early next week will drop into the 70s on
Monday behind the aforementioned front and will struggle to rebound
for a couple of days. Overnight lows will also get chillier behind
the front with chances for most areas to fall into the 50s Monday
night and even a few areas into the upper 40s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1220 PM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

Low cigs will continue to dissipate across the region this afternoon
as light surface winds gradually shift to an onshore component along
the coast (NErly at east coast terminals, NWrly at KAPF) during the
mid to late afternoon hours. Light and variable winds overnight
before light east-northeasterly flow prevails across the region
during the day on Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

A gentle to moderate northerly breeze is expected today as a frontal
boundary passes through the area this morning into the afternoon.
Winds then increase for the end of the week to a moderate breeze and
shift easterly on Thursday and southeasterly on Friday. Seas across
all local waters for the next couple of days are expected at 2-3
feet.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 120 AM EST Wed Dec 3 2025

A moderate risk for rip currents continues for the Palm beaches the
next couple of days, with a low risk for the rest of the local
beaches. An elevated risk may continue through the end of the week
and this weekend for portions of the Atlantic coast.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            68  81  70  82 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     65  84  66  84 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        67  83  69  84 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        67  82  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  66  80  69  81 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  67  81  69  82 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   67  83  68  84 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  65  81  68  82 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       66  81  69  83 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           61  82  64  82 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...Hadi