484
FXUS62 KMFL 221315 AAA
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion...UPDATED
National Weather Service Miami FL
815 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 815 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The PWAT values from MIA sounding this morning was around 0.36
inches which is near the record minimum of 0.32 inches for this
time of year. This dry air will remain in place over South Florida
today as a secondary dry cold front moves southward from Central
Florida into South Florida. Therefore, the forecast looks on track
today for South Florida with clear to mostly sunny skies and
cooler temperatures.

There is still a Small Craft Advisory for the Atlantic waters as
seas will be 6 to 8 feet with northwest winds of 15 to 20 knots.
The Gulf waters will be in an SCEC for winds of 15 to 20 knots.
There is also a Moderate Risk of Rip Currents along all of South
Florida beaches today.

Therefore, no changes are planned with this update for South
Florida area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

A strong mid level low currently over the Mid Atlantic states will
gradually slide eastward today and into the Atlantic heading into
the first part of the weekend. Deep mid level troughing will extend
southward across the rest of the Eastern Seaboard and that will
slide eastward heading into Saturday. At the surface, a secondary
frontal boundary currently over Northern Florida and the Gulf coast
will slide southeastward as today progresses. With cold and dry air
advection continuing throughout Friday in the wake of the previous
front that went through early Thursday morning, high temperatures
today will struggle to get to 70 degrees across the Lake Okeechobee
region, and these temperatures will rise into the lower 70s
elsewhere across the region.

With the secondary front passing through the region, this will
provide a reinforcing shot of cold air to the area on Friday night
into Saturday morning. This will send overnight lows down into the
lower 40s west of Lake Okeechobee and into the mid to upper 40s
across most other interior locations. The east coast metro areas as
well as the coastal area of Southwest Florida will see low
temperatures drop into the lower 50s Friday night into Saturday
morning. As high pressure continues to build over the region
throughout Saturday, the dry conditions will remain in place as
strong cold air advection takes place along the north to
northwesterly wind flow. High temperatures on Saturday will only
rise into the upper 60s across the Lake Okeechobee region to the
lower 70s across the rest of South Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

To close out the weekend, the ridge of high pressure to our north
will preface it`s exit with one more chilly morning. Overnight
Saturday into Sunday morning, the cold air mass will keep most lows
in the mid-40s around Lake Okeechobee and interior southern FL, with
the remainder of South FL in the low to mid 50s. However, on Sunday
into early next week, the high pressure system will begin to drift
eastward allowing the low level winds to veer east/northeastward.
While Sunday afternoon highs will trend below climatological normal,
they will be the start of a warming trend due to the ENE winds.

Next week, with the easterly winds and influence of the Atlantic
warmth, temperatures will trend warmer, and potentially reach above
climatological normals by mid-week. Afternoon highs will be back in
the the upper 70s and low 80s on Monday and widespread 80s by
Tuesday. Overnight lows will be closer to normal with temperatures
keeping to the upper 50s and 60s by Tuesday morning. With the
influence of the high pressure and dry air mass, conditions are
expected to remain benign and dry through at least the first half of
the new week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 612 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

The weather will remain dry with VFR conditions over all of the
TAF sites today. Winds will be northwest at 10 to 15 knots with
gusts up to 25 knots at all of the TAF sites.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

Hazardous marine conditions will continue across the Atlantic waters
through today and tonight as a fresh to strong northwesterly wind
flow continues. Seas across the Atlantic waters will remain at 6 to
8 feet before gradually diminishing on Saturday. Across the Gulf
waters, a moderate to fresh northwesterly breeze will continue today
before gradually diminishing tonight. Marine conditions will improve
across all local waters heading into the second half of the weekend
and then into early next week as winds and seas diminish.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 126 AM EST Fri Nov 22 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will continue across all South
Florida beaches through the rest of the week and into the first part
of the weekend.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            72  54  72  57 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     74  49  73  51 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        74  52  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        74  52  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  53  71  58 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  52  71  57 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   74  52  73  55 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  71  51  70  55 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       72  51  71  55 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           72  51  70  51 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....JS
UPDATE/AVIATION...BNB