Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
159 FXUS62 KMFL 142251 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 651 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 644 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 - Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day through the week, with Monday`s focus more along the east coast. Impacts will be from frequent cloud to ground lightning, urban and poor drainage flooding from heavy rainfall and gusty winds. - Max heat indices of 100-105 are forecast for Monday which may cause heat related concerns for sensitive populations. Heat indices should increase through the week, which may result in further complications for those engaged in outdoor activities. && .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 As anticipated, another afternoon of showers and thunderstorms over the interior has taken shape. There have been a few storms reaching close to the east coast but at this time have remained inland of the beaches. Will continue to monitor for any colliding outflow boundaries. Should any storm develop or meander closer to the east coast, there does remain potential for some urban flooding given precipitable water values are in excess of 2 inches and would be efficient rain producers, with some showing signs of 4 to 6 inches per hour rates. A marginal risk for flash flooding remains in effect for this area today by WPC. Storms should linger through the remainder of the afternoon into the early evening before dissipating with the loss of daytime heating. The other story for the day is the heat. Temperatures have risen into the upper 80s and lower 90s. Heat indices are rising to around 100 to 105 degrees, which may lead to heat issues for very sensitive populations or those spending excessive time outside. Heading into Monday, the overall pattern remains where the surface high continues across the west central Atlantic and the upper pattern is characterized by general troughing across the eastern CONUS. As high moisture content remains across the region, winds at the surface will be light and generally out of the south to slightly south-southeast along the east coast and westerly out of the Gulf. This combination will allow for scattered to numerous showers and storms to once again develop Monday late morning and afternoon into the evening. The main impacts from these storms will be frequent cloud to ground lightning, locally heavy downpours and potential for some gusty winds as well. Heat will again be a concern on Monday as temperatures rise once again into the low 90s. Heat indices will be more widespread closer to 105, but looks like we should remain below those thresholds for now. If we get storms to develop earlier and drop temps faster, we may not reach 105 so easily tomorrow as well. Still, the region will still be minor to moderate levels of HeatRisk with some areas of low probabilities of Major HeatRisk. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through next Saturday) Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 The pattern will shift a little as we continue through the week. While this weekend we have been situated between two areas of higher pressure, this will strengthen as we progress through the week and heights will rise across the region. This will bring highs a couple of degrees warmer than we have seen this weekend, generally in the lower to mid 90s. Heat indices will remain around 105 degrees through the early parts of the week but these will be increasing as we head toward the middle to latter portions of the week, where heat headlines may be needed for heat indices in excess of 105-108 degrees. HeatRisk depiction also increases more to the widespread moderate to major categories, especially across coastal locations. Daily scattered to some numerous showers and thunderstorms remain as well with the main concerns still being frequent lightning, gusty winds and heavy downpours. Initially storms will affect the east coast on Tuesday with south- southeasterly winds but migrate to more of an interior show during the week. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 644 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 VFR conditions will mostly prevail at all TAF sites through the forecast period. Afternoon convection is slowly winding down but may still affect KPBI especially through the next couple of hours. Quiet conditions overnight with a few lingering showers but overall winds will be out of the southwest and around 5kts or less. Monday will be another active day with convection after 18z, this time favoring much more of the TAF sites along the east coast. While there might be a shower or storm on the west coast, confidence in this is much lower. && .MARINE... Issued at 307 PM EDT Sun Jun 14 2026 Light southeasterly winds across the Atlantic have been present today and more westerly off the Gulf. These should generally continue into Monday as well. Seas generally 2 ft or less in the Atlantic and a foot or less in the Gulf for the next few days. Scattered thunderstorms are again possible which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 77 91 77 91 / 20 70 20 40 West Kendall 75 92 75 93 / 20 60 20 30 Opa-Locka 77 93 77 93 / 20 70 20 50 Homestead 77 91 77 92 / 10 40 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 78 91 78 91 / 20 70 20 50 N Ft Lauderdale 77 91 77 91 / 20 70 20 60 Pembroke Pines 79 95 78 95 / 20 70 20 50 West Palm Beach 77 91 77 92 / 20 70 20 70 Boca Raton 78 91 77 91 / 20 70 20 60 Naples 79 90 80 90 / 10 20 0 0 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...JC LONG TERM....JC AVIATION...JC