103
FXUS62 KMFL 011103
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
703 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Wednesday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Conditions across South Florida will remain unsettled this week,
with scattered showers and strong thunderstorms possible each
afternoon. Surface high over the western Atlantic ocean will
continue to promote light southeasterly flow across the region
today, and convective development will be (mostly) driven by local
mesoscale processes, with daytime heating and sea breeze and other
boundary collisions playing a pivotal role. Mid-level troughing and
an associated surface front are developing across the Midwest, and
will gradually pull the oft-mentioned tropical upper tropospheric
trough (or TUTT) northward towards the Carolinas. However, a pocket
of 500mb vorticity could still linger across south-central Florida
on Tuesday, providing additional support for strong thunderstorms to
form in the late afternoon. Some of the CAMs have begun to trend
eastward with the late afternoon activity, potentially impacting the
East Coast metro and producing very localized street flooding with
any heavy downpours.

As the mid-level trough moves eastward and the associated front
moves over the southeast US, the wind flow across the Florida
peninsula will veer in response, becoming more southerly to
southwesterly by Wednesday. As a result, deep moisture will return
to the region, with PWATs climbing into 1.9-2.1 inch range, and
convective activity each afternoon becoming more concentrated across
northern and northeastern portions of the CWA instead of interior
and southwest Florida. Activity will still be mostly driven by
mesoscale processes, with heavy rain, frequent lightning and gusty
winds associated with any of the stronger storms. 00Z HREF LPMM
hints at some pockets of 4-5 inches of rain across rural Palm Beach
and Broward counties, but conditions will need to be closely
monitored as the exact location of these precip maxes can shift from
forecast to reality, and such rainfall accumulations could result in
localized flooding.

High temperatures will remain typical for this time of year as they
will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s across most areas. Heat
indices across the interior and southwest Florida could peak in the
low 100s. Balmy conditions overnight, with lows in the upper 70s and
upper 80s along the coasts, and low 70s across the interior.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday night through Monday)
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Uncertainty increases midweek and into the holiday weekend as the
aforementioned frontal boundary stalls out across the southeast U.S.
later this week, pushing the surface high further south and away
from the peninsula. Deep moisture will return to the area as
southerly flow prevails, with PWATs climbing above 2 inches each
day, and model guidance agrees in keeping elevated chances for
showers and thunderstorms across northeastern portions of the CWA,
potentially impacting the East Coast metro each afternoon through
the long term period. Model QPF also hints at heavy downpours with
some of these showers and thunderstorms each evening.

The source of uncertainty for this period comes in the form of a
potential disturbance being hinted at by some of the deterministic
guidance, which has "something" developing somewhere over the Gulf
waters, or the Florida panhandle, or even over the Gulf stream...
basically somewhere along the stalled front, near the end of the
work week. Model guidance today looks even more meager than previous
runs, really highlighting how the lack of consensus or any type of
trend continue to complicate the forecast process. If a system does
develop, it could potentially help enhance the aforementioned
chances for showers and thunderstorms across the region, and elevate
the potential for severe and flooding impacts. This solution will
need to be monitored further as the week progresses.

Seasonably warm temperatures will continue each day.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 701 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Light and variable winds to start the 12Z period before winds
become SE 10-15 kts after 15Z. An afternoon westerly breeze is
expected at APF. SCT showers and thunderstorms are expected this
afternoon into early evening which may result in erratic winds and
brief flight restrictions.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 128 AM EDT Tue Jul 1 2025

Gentle southeasterly winds prevail through midweek as surface high
remains in place over the western Atlantic. This feature could shift
southward later this week, resulting in more southerly flow across
all local waters.  Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will
remain at 2 feet or less through the weekend and into early next
week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible across
the local waters each day. Any thunderstorm can produce brief
periods of rough seas along with gusty and erratic winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            89  79  89  79 /  50  30  50  20
West Kendall     89  75  90  75 /  40  30  50  20
Opa-Locka        91  79  91  79 /  50  30  50  20
Homestead        89  78  90  78 /  40  30  40  10
Fort Lauderdale  88  78  88  78 /  50  30  60  30
N Ft Lauderdale  88  78  88  78 /  50  40  60  30
Pembroke Pines   92  80  92  81 /  50  30  60  20
West Palm Beach  88  75  90  77 /  50  40  70  30
Boca Raton       89  76  90  78 /  50  40  60  30
Naples           89  75  89  77 /  40  30  50  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...CMF