893
FXUS62 KMFL 222307
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
607 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Sunday)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Model ensembles remain in fair show a broad high pressure system
still dominating the SE CONUS and the Florida peninsula through
this evening. Meanwhile, a deepening mid/upper level low will
trek across the NW Gulf waters and begin approaching the state
on Sunday, and dragging a sfc frontal boundary into the area.
In response, the high pressure over the region will start to
break down, which will in turn weaken wind speeds across SoFlo.
But the ongoing benign weather conditions should last through
Sunday as the more robust moisture field ahead of the
aforementioned front is not expected to reach the area until early
next week. Latest model solutions show a potential strong upper-
level jet reaching the state late Sunday, but with its best
dynamic support remaining north of SoFlo while possibly
reinforcing local subsidence. Therefore, Sunday should be one more
day of generally benign weather with maybe a quick coastal
passing shower in the afternoon.

Temperatures tonight cool down into the low-mid 50s over northern
and inland portions of SoFlo, while upper 50s to low 60s are
likely for coastal areas. For Sunday, afternoon highs will again
reach the upper 70s to low 80s, warmest around west coast areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through next Friday)
Issued at 214 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Changes are on the way in the weather pattern for South Florida
during the early portion of the week as a potent shortwave pushes
across the Gulf towards the region. At the surface, this will
allow for a broad area of low pressure to develop over the central
Gulf and push towards the Florida Peninsula during this time
frame. The latest guidance suite is in pretty good agreement that
this system will be disorganized as it approaches and pushes
through the region Monday afternoon into Monday night. The exact
track though still remains uncertain and will play a key role
especially with the potential strength of thunderstorms as it
passes through the region. Guidance has been trying to congeal and
has been trending on solutions bringing the broad area of low
pressure further south over the region. There is still some spread
in the guidance, however, taking the low just to the north of
Lake Okeechobee or bringing it over the southern tip of the
peninsula as well as the Florida Keys.

This makes a big difference in regards to the exact hazards that
could happen across South Florida heading into Monday afternoon
through Tuesday morning. The farther south it goes, the
thunderstorm threat will be reduced and it would be more of a
widespread rain event with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall to occur. If it were to take a track just to the north of
Lake Okeechobee, there would be the potential for increased
thunderstorm activity over the region along with the possibility
of some of these thunderstorms becoming strong containing gusty
winds, hail, and heavy downpours. This will continue to be
monitored as the weekend progresses. In any event, chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase especially heading into
Monday afternoon and Monday night across South Florida as the low
passes through the region.

The mid level shortwave will cross into the western Atlantic on
Tuesday as the area of low pressure strengthens as it heads
northeastward away from the region. While there still could be
some lingering showers and thunderstorms in the area on Tuesday
morning, a drying trend will gradually take place from northwest
to Southeast on Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds back
into the region. This area of high pressure will keep mainly dry
conditions in place through Wednesday as it pushes into the
western Atlantic. High temperatures towards the middle of the week
will generally rise into the upper 70s to around 80 across most
areas.

Heading towards the end of the week, the latest guidance is
hinting at mid level troughing pushing through the Midwest and
across the Eastern Seaboard during this time frame. At the
surface, this would bring the potential for another frontal
passage across the region later on Thursday into Friday.
Uncertainty remains high for this part of the forecast as it is
towards the end of the forecast period, however, it does look like
this front would be in a weakening state as it passes through the
region with the best dynamics and instability remaining well off
to the north. The latest forecast takes a blend of the models and
reintroduces a slight chance of showers mainly over the east
coast and Atlantic waters for Thursday into Friday. This will
continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High
temperatures on Thursday will rise into the upper 70s and lower
80s across most areas while cooler temperatures could push into
the region for Friday depending on the timing of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 604 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

VFR conditions expected to continue during the next 24 hours
at all terminals. Occasional MVFR cigs are still possible early this
evening with periods of passing low level cloud decks. Easterly
flow will weaken before becoming light and variable overnight.
Winds will veer E/NE at 8 to 10 mph by tomorrow afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

Marine conditions are improving over the Atlantic waters as winds
gradually decrease and seas slowly subside. Gulf seas are expected
to remain in the 2-4 feet range. Mostly benign boating conditions
should prevail on Sunday with very low chances of showers. An
approaching frontal boundary will bring an increase in showers
and potential for thunderstorms early next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Sat Feb 22 2025

A high risk for rip currents continues across all Atlantic coast
beaches through Sunday evening as moderate onshore flow continues.
The rip risk will decrease starting Sunday night and into early
next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            63  77  68  77 /   0   0  20  80
West Kendall     59  79  64  79 /   0   0  20  80
Opa-Locka        62  79  65  79 /   0   0  20  80
Homestead        62  77  66  79 /   0   0  20  80
Fort Lauderdale  63  75  67  75 /   0   0  20  80
N Ft Lauderdale  62  75  66  75 /   0   0  20  80
Pembroke Pines   63  79  67  79 /   0   0  20  80
West Palm Beach  60  75  65  74 /   0   0  20  80
Boca Raton       62  77  66  76 /   0   0  20  80
Naples           59  79  63  74 /   0   0  40  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...JS