831
FXUS62 KMFL 022222
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
622 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 551 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

 - Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms expected again
   today through the early evening hours. The stronger
   thunderstorms could contain gusty winds and frequent lightning.

 - Heavy downpours with high rainfall rates combined with slow
   moving storms creates the potential for localized flooding
   especially over the urban and poor drainage areas.

 - High temperatures may remain slightly cooler, but still in the
   upper 80s to low 90s.


&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Thursday)
Issued at 131 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

We remain in a fairly fixed and unchanged weather regime compared to
yesterday with a mid-level ridge centered over the Tennessee Valley
acting as a blocking mechanism and refraining overall storm tracks
well to our north. Satellite and mesoanalysis data continue to show
an upper-level low/TUTT churning just north of the Bahamas with a
vort max positioned directly over our region. Plenty of moisture
remains in place as a result of this nearby disturbance with
ensemble forecasts showing regional PWAT values within the 2.2-2.5"
range, representing the upper echelon (>90th percentile) of
climatological norms for this time of year. A relatively weak flow
pattern will continue to be observed as we find ourselves lodged
between a pair of sfc ridges over the central Gulf coast and just
offshore of the Mid-Atlantic United States with no real sfc
gradients to take note of. Our sfc flow will therefore be mainly sea
breeze-driven today with light onshore winds expected along each
coast. Given the highly saturated atmosphere and forcing aloft with
the aforementioned TUTT, showers and thunderstorms that have mainly
resided over the local waters this morning should gradually
overspread mainland South Florida during the afternoon and early
evening hours, favoring the interior (PoPs of 70-80%) with the
converging sea breezes. Neighborhood probabilities of 20-30% for
rainfall rates exceeding 1"/hr and overall slow storm motion (high-
res models suggesting bulk 0-6km shear to be below 10 kts) will have
to be considered for the potential for urban flooding particularly
across our eastern metros. In addition to these heavy downpours,
frequent to excessive lightning and gusty winds within the vicinity
of these thunderstorms will be the supplementary hazards.

Models are insisting on the intrusion of some drier air from the
south tomorrow, which is being reflected not only in our grids as
slightly lower PoPs (60-70%) but also in our HREF guidance showing
an overall reduction in PWATs (2.0-2.2"). LPMM composite
reflectivity thus demonstrates a rightful output in showing showers
and thunderstorms not being as widespread in coverage as today.
Nonetheless, these aforementioned PWATs are still forecast to be
well above our climatological norms (between the 70-90th
percentiles) which, in addition to the persisting presence of the
TUTT-like feature around our peninsula providing the requisite
forcing aloft, should result in yet another active convective day.
Daytime convection should be mainly favoring the interior as our
winds will turn more southerly with a modest south and westward
shift in our subtropical ridge.

It will remain seasonably hot across our region, with highs forecast
to reach the low to mid 90s both today and tomorrow coupled with max
apparent temperatures of 100-105 degrees.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Thursday night through Tuesday)
Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Long range forecast philosophy remains consistent with a wet and
convective weather pattern in place. The W Atl ridge axis pushes
south and moves closer to, or even over SoFlo, basically reducing
winds to a light sout-southwest flow. Periods of calm winds are also
possible even during the afternoon hours, with sea breeze boundaries
becoming the focal point for deeper convection.

NBM and long-range guidance remain very aggressive with POPs across
the area, with max values in the 80-90% range through the weekend,
and still lingering the 70-80% range early next week. PWATs, dew
points, rainfall estimates all remain above or well above seasonal
normals through the long term. Best chances for strong convection
will happen along the East coast sea breeze around the Atlantic
metro areas early in the afternoon, then pushing inland during the
late afternoon hours. In addition, outflow boundary interactions may
spark late afternoon/evening storms over the metro areas at times.
Hazards will include gusty winds, heavy rainfall and frequent
lightning.

Temperatures are expected to remain seasonably hot each day, with
afternoon highs in the low to mid 90s. Overnight lows should remain
in the low 80s across the coastlines, and mid 70s over the interior.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 551 PM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

Showers and storms winding down over the next couple of hours with
a mainly dry overnight period. Light and variable flow returns
overnight becoming onshore along the east and west coasts with sea
breeze progression by early afternoon. Additional showers and
storms developing late morning into early afternoon Thursday.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 415 AM EDT Wed Sep 2 2026

A gentle to moderate east southeasterly breeze will continue across
most of the local waters through the weekend. The exception to this
will be across the Gulf waters, where winds may become more south
southwesterly each afternoon as a Gulf breeze develops.

Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will develop over the
local waters each day. Gusty and erratic winds, along with brief periods
of rough seas, will be possible in and around thunderstorms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  91  81  90 /  20  40  50  70
West Kendall     78  91  79  90 /  20  50  50  70
Opa-Locka        80  92  81  91 /  20  50  50  70
Homestead        78  92  79  91 /  20  40  50  70
Fort Lauderdale  80  90  80  90 /  30  40  50  70
N Ft Lauderdale  79  91  80  91 /  30  50  50  70
Pembroke Pines   80  91  80  91 /  30  50  50  70
West Palm Beach  79  92  79  91 /  40  50  50  70
Boca Raton       79  90  80  90 /  30  50  60  70
Naples           77  90  77  91 /  40  50  20  80

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...AD
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Rizzuto