401
FXUS62 KMFL 232241
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
641 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 133 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Numerous showers and thunderstorms are ongoing across most of the
area this afternoon as a general west to southwesterly wind flow
continues across the region. While this round of showers and
thunderstorms affecting the east coast metro areas is beginning to
move offshore, additional shower and thunderstorm activity will be
possible later this afternoon as the atmosphere tries to
destabilize once again due to additional daytime heating. With
plenty of outflow boundaries in place from previous convection,
additional strong thunderstorm development will be possible
through the early evening hours. The strongest storms will be
capable of producing heavy downpours as well as gusty winds of 45
to 55 mph.

With the loss of diurnal heating, most of the thunderstorm
activity should gradually diminsh as the evening progresses
giving way to mainly dry conditions across most areas during the
overnight hours. The exception to this will be across the Atlantic
and Gulf waters as well as the Gulf coastal areas, where
additional shower and thunderstorm activity may try to develop
during this time frame. Low temperatures tonight will generally
drop into the lower to mid 70s across the Lake Okeechobee region
into the upper 70s to around 80 along the coastal areas.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

This weekend`s weather will remain unsettled as a stalled frontal
boundary remains across northern FL, with several areas of weak low
pressure along the boundary. At the upper levels, there is a weak
mid/upper level trough over the SE US which will get absorbed into
the larger trough that will start to dig into the eastern US by late
Sunday. Locally, deep moisture will remain in place with light
westerly flow. HREF and forecast soundings show PWAT values around 2
inches today and Sunday, with deep moisture throughout the column.
Widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms early this
morning will increase in coverage later today aided by peak heating
instability, with a similar pattern expected for Sunday. Much like
yesterday, a few stronger storms can`t be ruled out during the peak
heating of the day. A limited urban/poor drainage flood threat will
continue across the east coast metro, especially with the sea-breeze
meandering close to the coast and interacting with outflow
boundaries from convection throughout the afternoon and early
evening.

High temperatures today and Sunday will be in the low to middle 90s.
Heat indices approaching advisory criteria will be possible, however
afternoon convection should prevent the need for any headlines. Low
temps tonight will be in the middle 70s over the interior and around
80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Early in the upcoming week, the frontal boundary over northern FL is
expected to dissipate. Meanwhile, a trough will dig into the eastern
US and a frontal boundary associated with a system in eastern Canada
will approach the southeast US early in the week and then settle
north of Lake Okeechobee mid to late week. Low level westerly flow
early in the week will finally return to a more typical easterly
flow mid to late week. This will result in the highest PoPs favoring
the interior and east coast on Monday and then switching to interior
and west coast by mid to late week.

Temperatures next week will remain above normal with highs in the
low to middle 90s, and low temps ranging from the middle 70s over
the interior, to around 80 closer to the Atlantic and Gulf coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 634 PM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Any leftover showers near the east coast terminals will quickly
diminish during the early evening hours and VFR will prevail
through the overnight. At KAPF, steadier showers will linger into
the evening hours before a lull develops overnight and winds
become light and variable. Some brief periods of MVFR still cannot
be ruled out at KAPF this evening. WSW winds will increase to
around 10 kts after 14z Sunday and another round of showers and
storms will push from west to east late Sunday morning into the
afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Gentle to moderate S/SW breeze expected this weekend over the area
waters. Lingering swell from distant post tropical Erin will result
in 2-5 ft seas in the Atlantic this weekend, while Gulf seas will
remain 2 ft or less. Scattered thunderstorms this weekend may result
in locally higher winds and seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 100 AM EDT Sat Aug 23 2025

Lingering NE swell will result in a high risk of rip currents for
the Atlantic beaches through this afternoon, with the high risk
continuing for the Palm Beaches through at least Sunday.

Minor coastal flooding is possible this afternoon during high tide
along the Mainland Monroe coast, including the Flamingo Visitor
Center area.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  93  79  93 /  30  70  20  40
West Kendall     77  93  77  93 /  30  60  10  40
Opa-Locka        78  94  78  94 /  30  70  20  50
Homestead        77  92  78  93 /  30  40  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  93  78  92 /  40  70  20  50
N Ft Lauderdale  79  93  78  93 /  40  70  20  60
Pembroke Pines   79  96  78  96 /  40  70  20  50
West Palm Beach  77  93  76  93 /  40  80  20  70
Boca Raton       77  94  77  94 /  40  70  20  60
Naples           80  91  80  92 /  50  70  20  50

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168.

     High Rip Current Risk until 8 PM EDT this evening for FLZ172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION/UPDATE...CWC