665
FXUS62 KMFL 241137
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
737 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

...New AVIATION...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 721 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

 - Coastal showers this morning, then scattered storms this
   afternoon into early evening favoring inland and SW FL.

 - Increasing rain chances this weekend into early next week.

 - Heat index values exceeding 100 degrees expected each day
   through the upcoming weekend.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Early morning analysis shows the remnants of Bertha over ESE Texas,
while surface high pressure is over the NE Gulf. A surface frontal
boundary is across the SE US with multiple areas of low pressure
along the front. At the upper levels, ridging continues to build
into the western US, while troughing over the eastern US will
continue to deepen over the next couple days.

Locally, the ESE low level flow will be fairly weak across South FL
today and again on Saturday. Convection will be primarily diurnally
driven sea-breeze convection both days, with overnight coastal
showers and isolated storms along the Atlantic coast. Forecast
soundings show fairly deep moisture throughout the column with PWAT
values ranging from 1.9-2.1 inches. Steering flows are fairly uniform
today, however on Saturday the mid level flow becomes more westerly
while the low level flow is ESE across the metro. This could present
an urban and poor drainage flooding threat across the east coast
metro, especially if multiple slow moving storms pass over the same
area.

Temperatures will continue to be above normal with afternoon highs
ranging from the low to middle 90s. Overnight lows will be in the
middle 70s over the interior, to upper 70s and low 80s closer to the
coasts. Max heat indices will continue to flirt with advisory
criteria, however with increasing convection during the afternoon
hours, reaching criteria for at least two hours will be difficult,
therefore no headlines are anticipated at this time. Regardless
though, anyone with outdoor activities will want to stay plenty
hydrated and take frequent breaks from the heat.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

As we look towards the end of the weekend and into next week, upper
level ridging will build into the western US, while troughing
deepens over the eastern US and western Atlantic. This will allow a
series of fronts to drop down from the northern Plains towards the
Southeast US coast before dissipating. A stream of enhanced deeper
level moisture will set up across South FL the end of this weekend
into next week as it gets squeezed between the trough in the eastern
US and high pressure in the central Atlantic. Another noticeable
difference during this time period is that the low level flow across
South FL will become more westerly starting Sunday and lasting
through at least the early part of next week. This will bring the
focus of convection each afternoon into early evening more into the
east coast metro, resulting in higher than normal PoPs each day.
While the rainfall is certainly welcome news given the ongoing
drought conditions across the area, will need to be on the lookout
for localized urban and poor drainage flooding each day.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with highs each day generally in the low to mid 90s. Heat indices of
105-110 will be possible each day, but with the increased rainfall
chances it`ll be tough to reach criteria for at least 2 hours each
day, so any hazard decisions will likely be made on a day by day
basis.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 721 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Shower activity moving onshore from the Atlantic will continue to
dissipate through the morning. Storm activity will focus mainly
over interior South Florida this afternoon, but have included VCTS
for all sites. Eastern locations will see a southeasterly wind of
around 10 kts, while a Gulf breeze will shift winds west at KAPF.
Thunderstorms at KAPF this afternoon may create brief MVFR
conditions and gusty winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Fri Jul 24 2026

Light easterly winds are expected today across the Atlantic with
variable winds over the Gulf. Winds on Saturday will become more
southerly but remain light. Scattered thunderstorms possible each
day through the weekend which may result in locally hazardous winds
and seas. Outside of convection, seas will be generally 2 ft or
less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  80  93  79 /  40  30  60  30
West Kendall     93  77  93  76 /  40  20  60  30
Opa-Locka        93  80  94  79 /  40  20  70  40
Homestead        92  79  93  78 /  30  20  50  20
Fort Lauderdale  91  81  92  79 /  40  30  60  40
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  92  79 /  40  20  70  40
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  80 /  40  20  70  40
West Palm Beach  91  79  92  77 /  40  20  50  30
Boca Raton       90  80  91  78 /  40  20  60  40
Naples           93  77  91  79 /  60  30  20  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...NMP