Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
328 FXUS62 KMFL 301900 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 300 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 ...New UPDATE... .UPDATE... Issued at 222 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Shower activity has persisted over Collier and Hendry counties for the past several hours due to a slow steering flow from the Gulf. Short term convection models indicate that this activity should decrease by mid afternoon with additional development across the interior of the east coast counties as the east coast sea breeze pushes inland. High pressure conditions will remain in place for the next few days keeping the daily weather conditions similar day to day. Southeast wind flow will aid in the development of showers and isolated thunderstorms along the east coast in the afternoon and across the southwest with the winds turning from the southwest. With similar dew points and high temperatures for tomorrow forecast to be around one degree lower than today, the criteria for Heat Advisory is not expected. However, safety measures should be followed if spending long periods of time outside during the day. No other changes were made to the forecast. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Thursday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Early this morning, some scattered thunderstorms continue to develop along a surface trough going down through the middle of the state, with some fairly impressive rainfall rates in Glades county prompting a flood advisory in the Palmdale area. Hi-res models are having a poor time capturing this activity and want to dissipate it too quickly. Do believe this activity around the lake will dissipate before sunrise, but may linger another few hours in the meantime. Upper level high pressure will continue to sit over the region today and Thursday, which will keep mid and upper level dry air in place. PWAT values will still be 1.8-2.0 inches despite the upper level dry air in place, thanks to a continuing moist SE low level flow off the Atlantic. Typical summertime pattern expected the next couple days with occasional overnight/early morning coastal showers, and afternoon/early evening showers and thunderstorms aided by the east and west coast sea-breezes. Temps will continue to be several degrees above normal with highs ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. The heat combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints will result in heat indices of 105-110 during the afternoon hours. As has been the case the past several days we`ll be near heat advisory criteria, however HREF probs remain below 10% for exceeding criteria, and while there were some observation sites that met criteria yesterday, the bulk of the area did not. Opting to hold off again for today, but once again the messaging will remain the same, that anyone with outdoor plans will need to stay hydrated and take plenty of breaks. && .LONG TERM... (Thursday night through Tuesday) Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 The ridge starts to break down the end of the week into the weekend as a trough starts to dig in the eastern US. Surface high pressure building into the great lakes region will help push a frontal boundary in the SE US down to roughly northern FL before stalling. This will result in an increase of mid/upper level moisture across South FL. While the overall pattern of convection will continue to follow a typical summertime pattern across South FL, expect a greater coverage of storms during the afternoon and early evening hours, especially on Sunday into early next week, although highest PoPs each day will continue to favor inland and SW FL. Temperatures will remain above normal through the extended period, with highs each day ranging from the lower 90s across the east coast metro, to mid and upper 90s over inland and SW FL. Low temps will range from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer to the coasts. Each day will continue to flirt with heat advisory criteria, with max heat indices of 105-110. && .AVIATION... (18Z TAFS) Issued at 125 PM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 SHRA and a few TSRA can affect the east coastal terminals this afternoon and slowly move inland. APF will see MVFR conditions due to lingering shower activity through afternoon due to slow steering flow. VFR returning tonight. && .MARINE... Issued at 110 AM EDT Wed Jul 30 2025 Gentle southeasterly winds will prevail through the weekend, with west to southwesterly winds over the Gulf waters developing each afternoon. Seas generally a foot or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters. Scattered thunderstorms are expected each day, which may result in locally hazardous winds and seas. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 80 93 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 West Kendall 77 93 77 93 / 10 30 10 20 Opa-Locka 80 95 79 95 / 10 30 10 20 Homestead 78 92 79 92 / 10 20 10 10 Fort Lauderdale 80 92 80 92 / 10 20 10 10 N Ft Lauderdale 80 93 81 92 / 10 30 10 10 Pembroke Pines 81 96 81 96 / 10 30 10 10 West Palm Beach 78 93 79 93 / 20 30 10 10 Boca Raton 79 94 79 94 / 20 30 10 10 Naples 80 93 79 93 / 10 30 10 30 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...CMF LONG TERM....CMF AVIATION...KN