Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
323 FXUS62 KMFL 091127 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 727 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 ...New AVIATION... .KEY MESSAGES... Updated at 726 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 - Shower and thunderstorm coverage is expected to focus mostly in SW Florida again today and tomorrow. - Heat indices expected in the low to mid 100s each day through the end of the week. && .SHORT TERM... (Today through Wednesday) Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 The mid-week period will consist of a mid-level shortwave trough advecting from the Great Lakes region towards the Eastern Seaboard, which will begin to break down the ridge present across the Southeastern states. Stout surface high pressure will still reside over the area, but as the ridge breaks down there is likely to be some vorticity maxima streaming from north to south across South Florida. These vorticity impulses along with the daily sea breeze circulations and the quasi-erosion of the mid-level ridge will allow for scattered showers and thunderstorms to develop across the region, with the focus of activity being for the interior and Gulf coast areas as the Gulf breeze gets pinned closer to the coast and the Atlantic breeze moves inland under this easterly regime. Some mid-level dry air will attempt to inhibit some convective growth today for the east coast metro, but deeper moisture will return for the Gulf coast areas where more widespread coverage should occur. PoPs today range from around 15-25% for the east coast metro versus 50-70% for the interior and Gulf coast. This will largely be the same case for Wednesday with perhaps a 5-10% increase in rain chances for each respective location. No major impacts are expected from convective showers and storms through mid-week other than some heavier downpours and cloud-to-ground lightning strikes. High temperatures today are expected in the upper 80s to low 90s across the region with maximum heat index values in the upper 90s to low 100s in the afternoon hours. && .LONG TERM... (Wednesday night through Monday) Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 Not much change to the forecast through the end of this week as a large scale ridge pattern will begin to weaken, but will hold firm likely through Friday before we begin to see a pattern change. Through Friday, expect diurnal scattered showers and thunderstorms to form across the region with the brunt of this focusing in Southwest Florida and the interior given the easterly flow regime around the surface high pressure. Heading into the weekend, guidance continues to hint an area of low pressure forming in the Caribbean potentially in the form of a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT), but this low pressure forming still remains uncertain given discontinuity among guidance. At minimum, it is expected based on the latest ensembles that winds will begin to veer more southerly this weekend after the ridge breaks down. In return, this will create a setup favoring fairly equal rain chances each day for the weekend and into next week across the entire region. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are currently forecast for the weekend and into next week with PoPs at 60-80%. High temperatures will generally range from the upper 80s to low 90s across the entire region each day through this weekend and into next week. && .AVIATION... (12Z TAFS) Issued at 726 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 VFR conditions prevail through the period with generally easterly flow in place, except at KAPF where a Gulf breeze will develop. There`s a slight chance of showers and thunderstorms over the interior this afternoon, well inland of the East Coast sites, with some potential impacts for KAPF. && .MARINE... Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 A gentle to moderate easterly wind flow will continue across the local waters through mid-week, with winds becoming westerly to west- southwest in the afternoon for the nearshore Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Shower and thunderstorm development will be more isolated for the Atlantic waters today with extra scattered showers and storms likely across the Gulf waters. Seas are expected at 2 feet or less for all local waters over the next few days, although brief periods of increased winds and seas are possible with any thunderstorm activity. && .BEACHES... Issued at 155 AM EDT Tue Jun 9 2026 There is a moderate risk for rip currents across portions of the Atlantic beaches over the next few days, primarily for the Palm beaches and Broward beaches. This will likely be maintained into the end of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 89 77 89 77 / 20 10 20 10 West Kendall 90 76 90 75 / 30 10 30 10 Opa-Locka 90 77 90 77 / 20 10 20 10 Homestead 89 78 89 78 / 20 10 20 10 Fort Lauderdale 88 79 88 78 / 10 20 20 10 N Ft Lauderdale 88 78 87 78 / 10 20 20 10 Pembroke Pines 91 79 91 79 / 20 10 20 10 West Palm Beach 88 78 88 78 / 20 30 20 0 Boca Raton 88 79 88 79 / 20 20 20 0 Naples 91 76 91 76 / 30 30 50 50 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...ATV