123
FXUS62 KMFL 250507
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
107 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

 - Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening.
   Locally heavy rain may lead to isolated instances of urban or
   poor drainage flooding.

 - Elevated rain chances continue through the middle of next week.

 - Heat index values of 103-108 expected today, with similar heat
   indices expected each day through the middle of next week.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Surface high pressure will be positioned over the central Gulf
today, while a stationary boundary settles along the SE US, unable
to make much of an advance due to strong high pressure over the
central Atlantic. Locally, winds will be fairly weak through 500 mb
today with a SSE low level flow. Convection will be primarily sea-
breeze driven today, however with the lack of steering flow compared
to the past several days, the convection should impact more of the
metro areas today. With PWAT values of 2.0-2.2 inches and fairly
deep moisture throughout the column, efficient rainfall rates are
expected, which may lead to an isolated urban/poor drainage flood
threat. Ingredients for severe storms are fairly lackluster today,
however a few stronger storms with wind gusts of 40-50 mph can`t be
completely ruled out. High temps today will be in the low to mid
90s. Combined with mid to upper 70s dewpoints, the max heat indices
will again flirt with advisory criteria, especially in Miami-Dade
and Broward. Expected convection early in the afternoon may prevent
many locations from reaching criteria for at least two hours, so at
this point will hold off on any hazards, but this may be re-
evaluated later this morning.

Showers and storms will linger around the Gulf coast late tonight,
with mostly quiet conditions overnight for the rest of South FL.
Seasonable low temps expected ranging from the low to mid 70s inland
to near 80 closer to the coasts.

On Sunday we start to see a pattern shift that will hang around for
much of the next upcoming week. Surface high pressure will shift to
the southern Gulf, while low pressure riding along the stationary
boundary approaches the SE US coast. Meanwhile, high pressure over
the central Atlantic will start building to the west. This will
result in a more westerly flow locally both in the low and mid
levels which will bring higher rainfall chances to the east coast
metro. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms are expected during the
afternoon and early evening hours, and once again urban and poor
drainage flooding will be a threat across the metro. While mean QPF
totals are only ranging from 0.5-1 inch across SE FL, higher end
probabilities of several inches are possible given the expected high
rainfall rates. High temps on Sunday will be in the lower 90s, and
with max heat indices of 105-110 expected, the eventual cloud cover
and convection should prevent the need for any heat hazards on
Sunday. Regardless though, anyone with outdoor plans this weekend
should plan for the heat and stay hydrated along with taking
frequent breaks.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

The unsettled pattern will remain across South FL for much of the
upcoming work week. A broad upper level trough will remain over New
England and the Mid Atlantic, with surface and upper level high
pressure over the west/central Atlantic. This will trap an area of
enhanced moisture across South FL. With the low/mid level flow
remaining westerly much of the week, this will result in above
average PoPs across the east coast metro each day. While the
rainfall will be much appreciated given the ongoing drought, will
need to be on guard for the potential of urban and poor drainage
flooding each day across the metro.

Temperatures during the extended period will remain above normal,
with high temps generally in the low to mid 90s and low temps
ranging from the middle 70s over inland South FL to around 80 closer
to the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Light and variable winds this morning becoming southeast 5-10 kts
from late morning through early evening, with a westerly Gulf
breeze at APF. Scattered thunderstorms this afternoon into early
evening may result in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 102 AM EDT Sat Jul 25 2026

Gentle southerly breeze expected across the Atlantic waters today,
with gentle west to southwest breeze across the Gulf. Scattered
thunderstorms today may result in locally hazardous winds and seas.
Outside of convection, seas will be 2 ft or less.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  79  92  78 /  70  30  90  50
West Kendall     93  76  92  75 /  80  30 100  40
Opa-Locka        93  78  93  78 /  70  30  90  50
Homestead        92  78  92  77 /  60  40  90  40
Fort Lauderdale  92  79  92  78 /  70  30  90  50
N Ft Lauderdale  92  79  92  78 /  70  30  90  50
Pembroke Pines   94  80  94  79 /  70  30  90  50
West Palm Beach  92  77  93  77 /  70  30  90  50
Boca Raton       91  77  91  77 /  70  30  90  50
Naples           91  79  91  79 /  20  40  60  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF