129
FXUS62 KMFL 261712
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
112 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Friday)
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A mid to upper level low will continue to meander over the Florida
Peninsula throughout the day. At the surface, an area of high
pressure will remain centered off in the western Atlantic today
into Friday. This will allow for a light southeasterly background
wind flow to continue which is aiding in deep tropical moisture
advection taking place today and into tomorrow. With the mid-level
low, this will help to keep colder air in place aloft (12Z
sounding 500mb temps - 9.6 degrees C). In combination with modest
mid level lapse rates (6.1C/km), as well as sufficient instability
(CAPE values of 1500- 2500 J/kg), these conditions could allow
for a few strong to marginally severe thunderstorms to develop,
especially this afternoon. The SPC convective outlook has all of
South Florida under a marginal risk (1 of 5) for strong to severe
thunderstorms across the region today, with a 5% probability for
strong, damaging winds.

Other than our local waters, there was a slow-start to activity this
morning, but scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will
continue to develop over the eastern metro early this afternoon.
Moving further into the afternoon and early evening with assistance
from sea breezes, these showers and storms will gradually push
towards the interior and west heading towards before gradually
diminishing this evening. Mid-afternoon thunderstorms tend to be the
strongest thunderstorms during peak diurnal heating where where
mesoscale boundary interactions occur across the interior sections.
Slow moving thunderstorms or multiple rounds of strong thunderstorms
developing over the same areas could lead to the potential for
localized flooding as plenty of deep tropical moisture will allow
for enhanced rainfall rates with the stronger activity. High
temperatures will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

While the mid-level low will drift a bit further away from the
region on Friday, it will still remain close enough to keep cooler
air aloft in place as 500mb temperatures will range between -8
and - 9C through a good portion of the day. One significant factor
that will need to be watched is a plume of Saharan Dust currently
off to the southeast in the Bahamas extending into the Carribean
Sea. This plume is anticipated to arrive over the region on
Friday. While Saharan dust usually acts as a limiting factor for
convection, with additional moisture already in place, this
feature may not impact the coverage of convection on Friday. This
Saharan dust, however, may allow for more of the thunderstorms to
become strong to marginally severe by introducing just enough
drier air in the mid levels to support strong gusty winds as DCAPE
values could be elevated. With very light steering flow in place,
the potential for slow moving storms and high rainfall rates
could lead to localized flooding especially across the poor
drainage areas once again. High temperatures on Friday will
generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Friday night through Wednesday)
Issued at 104 AM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

The weather pattern across South Florida looks to remain unsettled
heading into the upcoming weekend and even into early next week. The
mid level level low will remain nearly stationary over the Southeast
heading into the upcoming weekend. At the surface, high pressure
will remain centered off in the western Atlantic and South Florida
will remain on the western periphery of this feature. With the
synoptic wind flow remaining light out of the southeast, this will
allow for the surface winds to be mainly sea breeze driven during
this time. At the same time, the plume of Saharan Dust will remain
intact throughout most of the upcoming weekend across the region.
With the mid level low remaining parked over the Southeast, it will
be close enough to provide an extra source of lift as it will keep
cooler temperatures aloft in place. While convection development
will continue to be diurnally driven by the sea breezes, coverage
will likely continue to remain rather high as storms develop over
the Atlantic waters and east coast during the morning and early
afternoon hours before shifting towards the interior for the rest of
the afternoon and evening hours. Strong to marginally severe
thunderstorms will also be possible during the first half of the
weekend containing heavy downpours and gusty winds.

Heading towards the second half of the weekend and into early
next week, the latest guidance suite continues to remain in
relatively good agreement with pushing another mid level low
westward from the Bahamas over the Florida Peninsula during this
time frame. This will act as a reinforcing source of moisture and
will keep enhanced shower and thunderstorm chances in place during
this time frame with the added lift and instability continuing as
well. While the diurnal summertime convective pattern will generally
remain intact, there will be higher chances and higher coverage of
showers and thunderstorms each day during this time frame. Strong to
marginally severe thunderstorms will continue to remain possible
especially during the afternoon and evening hours with the highest
chances remaining over the interior where sea breeze and
thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide. A rather light steering
flow will remain in place as well which will keep the potential for
slow moving storms in place. Slow moving storms with heavy downpours
will continue to keep the potential for localized flooding in place
especially in the poor drainage areas as well as areas that will be
saturated from previous heavy downpours.

High temperatures over the weekend and into early next week will
remain near climatological normals for this time of year as they
will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 105 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

SCT showers and thunderstorms will become more numerous moving
into the afternoon across the interior and Gulf, which may result
in brief flight restrictions and erratic winds at KAPF. Conditions
will become isolated/scattered across the east coast metro moving
further into the afternoon. The light SE winds are strengthening
to 10-15 kts, with a westerly Gulf breeze expected at KAPF this
afternoon. Gusty, erratic winds are possible with any passing
thunderstorm. Brief MVFR/IFR cigs/vis possible during heavy
showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1210 PM EDT Thu Jun 26 2025

A gentle to moderate southeasterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters through the rest of the week and into the
upcoming weekend. Seas across the Atlantic and Gulf waters will
remain at 2 feet or less during this time frame. Scattered to
numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible each day.
Locally higher winds and seas could create potentially hazardous
conditions in and around showers and storms.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            79  90  80  90 /  30  50  20  40
West Kendall     75  91  75  91 /  30  40  20  30
Opa-Locka        79  92  80  92 /  30  50  20  40
Homestead        79  90  79  90 /  30  40  20  30
Fort Lauderdale  79  90  79  89 /  30  50  20  40
N Ft Lauderdale  79  90  79  90 /  30  50  20  40
Pembroke Pines   81  94  81  93 /  30  50  20  40
West Palm Beach  77  90  78  91 /  30  60  30  50
Boca Raton       77  92  78  92 /  30  50  20  50
Naples           74  90  75  91 /  60  50  30  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...JS/CWC
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...JS