549
FXUS62 KMFL 111116
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
716 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Tuesday)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

A gradual transition in the weather pattern is underway for South
Florida to start the week, as the surface low and frontal boundary
responsible for the last several days of rainfall shift northwards
away from the region. As this happens, ridging will continue to
build aloft, while surface high gradually noses in from the western
Atlantic.  ACARS soundings overnight perfectly depict the resulting
drying of the atmospheric column as that anomalously moist
airmass exits north, with PWATs having dropped to 1.7-1.8 inches
already by midnight. This drying trend will continue today, with
forecast soundings and ensemble data predicting values in the
1.5-1.7" range, slightly below the normals for this time of year.
All together, these changes will promote a return to the more
habitual summertime pattern of sea-breeze driven afternoon showers
and storms. With light easterly to southeasterly flow prevailing,
activity will be maximized over the interior and southwest
portions of South Florida. Coverage should remain isolated to
scattered in nature.

A subtle moistening of the atmospheric column back up to
climatological norms is forecast on Tuesday, with PWAT values back
up in the 1.8-1.9" range, and slightly more convective activity
potentially developing along sea-breeze and outflow boundaries.

Temperatures will continue to trend warm and in the low 90s to start
the week, with balmy lows in the mid 70s and low 80s overnight.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Tuesday night through Sunday)
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Surface high will remain in place across the western Atlantic Ocean
and the Florida peninsula for much of the week, promoting light
easterly-southeasterly flow and seasonal afternoon showers each day.
Activity will be sea breeze driven and mostly clustered over
interior and southwest Florida.  Temperatures will reach the low-mid
90s each afternoon and there will be a marginal concern for heat
indices nearing or exceeding advisory values across the whole CWA.
Some of the guidance in the extended range does suggest a return to
wet, unsettled weather as we head into the weekend as ridging breaks
down and a surface low attempts to develop. This solution will need
to be monitored as the week progresses.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 714 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

VFR through the period, with light easterly to southeasterly flow
prevailing. At KAPF, light westerly-southwesterly flow this
afternoon as the Gulf breeze develops. Slight chance of convection
inland of the sites this afternoon, but KAPF could see minor
impacts, so carrying VCTS.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Light to moderate easterly to southeasterly winds continue today.
Gulf breezes will bring a shift to west-southwesterly winds over the
west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except
around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough
seas and gusty winds.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 149 AM EDT Mon Aug 11 2025

Moderate risk of rip currents continues for Palm Beach and Broward
county beaches today due to a northeasterly swell. &&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  91  80 /  40  30  50  20
West Kendall     91  78  92  78 /  50  30  50  20
Opa-Locka        91  79  93  79 /  40  30  50  20
Homestead        90  79  91  79 /  40  40  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  91  80 /  40  30  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  91  80 /  50  30  40  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  80 /  40  30  40  20
West Palm Beach  91  79  92  79 /  60  20  50  10
Boca Raton       91  79  93  79 /  50  30  40  20
Naples           91  77  93  78 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            91  80  91  80 /  40  30  50  20
West Kendall     91  78  92  78 /  50  30  50  20
Opa-Locka        91  79  93  79 /  40  30  50  20
Homestead        90  79  91  79 /  40  40  40  20
Fort Lauderdale  90  80  91  80 /  40  30  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  91  80  91  80 /  50  30  40  20
Pembroke Pines   93  81  94  80 /  40  30  40  20
West Palm Beach  91  79  92  79 /  60  20  50  10
Boca Raton       91  79  93  79 /  50  30  40  20
Naples           91  77  93  78 /  70  40  60  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...Hadi