347
FXUS62 KMFL 211955
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
255 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

...New LONG TERM...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Ensemble consensus show a broad high pressure system dominating
the SE CONUS and the west Atlantic waters, while decaying frontal
boundary moves away from the Florida Keys and into the Caribbean.
WV data, 12Z MFL sounding, and latest sfc analyses depict a
synoptic and thermodynamic scenario that will continue to support
overall subsidence, and with no significant CAPE available
through Saturday. Therefore, expect a relatively dry air mass to
remain over SoFlo with generally benign weather conditions
prevailing for the rest of the short term. Meanwhile, some periods
of cloudy skies are possible as mid/upper level shallow cloud
decks linger for at least one more day.

Temperatures will remain cooler this afternoon, with highs
remaining in the low to mid 70s across SoFlo. Similar temperatures
on Saturday but with the easterly flow keeping the Atlantic side
a little cooler, while the west coast hits the upper 70s to
around 80. Lows tonight will drop into the low-mid 50s northern
and interior areas, and upper 50s to mid 60s near the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through next Thursday)
Issued at 228 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

To round out the weekend, zonal flow to weak mid level ridging
aloft on Sunday will gradually give way to a rather potent mid
level shortwave heading towards the region from the Gulf during
the early portion of the week. At the surface, this shortwave will
allow for a broad area of low pressure to develop in the
northwestern Gulf and this disturbance will gradually push towards
South Florida heading into Monday. While Sunday will remain
mostly dry, model guidance is starting to come into better
agreement that this area of low pressure will track over or near
the region early next week.

There are some lingering disagreements as far as timing is
concerned in the latest guidance suite as the GFS global and
ensemble solutions are a bit slower than that of the ECMWF. While
the exact details still remain uncertain, it does look like the
chances of showers will increase heading into Monday and at least
part of Tuesday at this point. As far as thunderstorm chances are
concerned, this will all be highly dependent on the exact track
of the surface low as well as the mid level shortwave. The current
forecast keeps a low end chance of thunderstorms in place for
Monday and Monday night. This will continue to be monitored as
the weekend progresses. High temperatures on Monday could be held
down a bit due to increased cloud cover and the increasing
potential for rainfall as they may only rise into the lower to mid
70s across most areas. High temperatures on Tuesday will
generally rise into the upper 70s across most areas.

As the strengthening area of low pressure pulls northeastward into
the Atlantic away from the region towards the middle of the week,
drier air will start to build back into South Florida during this
time frame as zonal flow returns aloft and high pressure builds
back into the region at the surface. There is the potential for
another weak front to approach and move through the region
towards the end of the week, however, uncertainty remains high for
this part of the forecast due to model disagreement as well as
this being towards the end of the forecast period. With some
moisture advection taking place on the south to southwesterly
wind flow, some shower activity cannot be ruled out heading into
Thursday. High temperatures on Wednesday and Thursday will
generally rise into the upper 70s and lower 80s.

&&

.AVIATION...
(18Z TAFS)
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Mainly VFR expected to prevail at all terminals during the next
24 hours. N/NNE winds in the 10-15 kts range with higher gusts
will decrease to around 10kt after 22/03Z, then becoming gusty
after 22/15Z.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

Hazardous conditions will continue over the Atlantic coastal waters
through tonight with winds out of the north-northeast at 15-20
kts. Seas in the Atlantic will remain in the 5-7 feet range through
tonight. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect until Saturday
morning for the Atlantic waters. Winds and seas will continue to
subside over the weekend.

On the Gulf side, the Small Craft Advisory has expired as winds
and seas subside, with conditions remaining below advisory
criteria for the rest of the weekend.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1230 PM EST Fri Feb 21 2025

The high risk for rip currents has been extended as robust
northeast winds continue along the east coast. Winds will begin to
decrease by Saturday afternoon, but a lingering swell will keep
the high risk in place a little longer. The rip risk will
decrease by late Sunday and into early next week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            64  74  63  78 /  10  20  10  10
West Kendall     60  76  59  80 /  10  10  10  10
Opa-Locka        62  76  61  80 /  10  20  10  10
Homestead        63  76  62  79 /  10  10  10  10
Fort Lauderdale  64  73  63  76 /  10  20  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  63  73  62  76 /  10  20  10  10
Pembroke Pines   63  77  62  81 /  10  20  10  10
West Palm Beach  62  72  60  76 /  20  20  10  10
Boca Raton       63  74  62  77 /  20  20  10  10
Naples           57  77  59  76 /   0  10  10  10

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 7 AM EST Saturday for AMZ650-651-670-
     671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...17