611
FXUS62 KMFL 030729
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
329 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Model trends remain fairly consistent in having broad high pressure
dominating the NE CONUS, while mid-upper level troughiness over the
eastern states will keep an associated sfc boundary stretching
across the Florida panhandle through Monday. Meanwhile, high
pressure remains in control of the rest of the Florida peninsula,
keeping a generally seasonal weather pattern across SoFlo during the
next couple of days. The only noticeable change in ensemble
guidance and high res solutions is the development of a couple of
disturbances along the frontal boundary, with one of them
ejecting into the west Atlantic sometime later today or Monday.
The National Hurricane Center keeps a 30 percent chance of
tropical development with these features, but remaining well north
of the area.

Afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected each
afternoon, driven mainly by diurnal heating cycle. Sea breezes will
again become focal points for the deepest convection and the
strongest storms. The prevailing weak SSE flow will keep POPs around
30 percent for the Atlantic coast locations early in the afternoon,
but models have lowered the chances to 40-50 percent range for
interior areas and the Lake region. A few early evening showers may
linger around coastal locations.

Model trends show rain and thunderstorm chances increasing on Monday
and beyond, with POPs back up to 70 percent across northern interior
areas, and 30-50 percent near the coasts. Main hazards will be
frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased
potential for large hail.

In terms of temperatures, heat impacts seem to continue today with
heat index values again reaching the 105-110 range this afternoon.
Therefore, and also based on yesterday`s verification, an
advisory will again be in effect today from 11am to 7pm for much
of SoFlo. Also, latest NBM temps have increased max temps into the
mid-upper 90s, and even some possible 100s over interior SoFlo.
Therefore, some locations may approach record values this
afternoon. Nighttime lows will remain mild, in the mid 70s inland,
and in the upper 70s to around 80 closer to the coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Consensus between long range ensembles and global solutions
remain fairly good in showing a deeper U/L trough over the extreme
SE CONUS, which drifts further southward and into the NE Gulf
waters by Wed. Meanwhile, additional disturbances may move along
the boundary over extreme northern Florida, which may result in
enhanced favorable upper level conditions for deeper convection
and stronger thunderstorms through much of the long term. The bulk
of convective activity is again expected during the afternoon
hours and into the early evening hours each day.

An increasing trend in POPs/Wx coverage is expected for the rest of
the work week and into Saturday with 60-80 percent by mid week, and
up to 90 percent in some locations Thu and Fri. Possible model
PWATs of 2 inches or higher may result in localized heavy showers,
especially with slow-moving thunderstorms. Main hazards will
again be frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and
increased potential for large hail.

Expect afternoon high temp values in the low 90s near the coasts,
and mid-upper 90s for inland areas and the Lake region. Nighttime
lows should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near the
coasts. Heat index values of 105-110 are possible through at least
the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 110 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

VFR conditions and light/variable winds continue for all terminals
through around 15Z. SHRA/TSRA possible after 17Z with possible
periods of MVFR/IFR, especially APF. Winds go light and variable,
along with prevailing VFR after 00Z tonight.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 325 AM EDT Sun Aug 3 2025

Light to moderate south-southeasterly winds to continue today and
through early in the work week. Only exception will be with Gulf
breezes bringing a shift to west-southwesterly flow winds over
the west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft,
except around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of
rough seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            94  81  94  81 /  30  20  40  20
West Kendall     94  78  93  79 /  40  20  40  20
Opa-Locka        95  81  94  80 /  30  20  40  10
Homestead        92  80  92  80 /  30  30  30  20
Fort Lauderdale  92  81  92  80 /  30  20  40  20
N Ft Lauderdale  94  82  93  80 /  30  20  40  20
Pembroke Pines   97  83  97  82 /  30  20  30  10
West Palm Beach  94  79  94  79 /  30  20  40  10
Boca Raton       95  80  95  79 /  30  20  40  20
Naples           93  79  94  79 /  40  30  50  30

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>068-070>074-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...17