352
FXUS62 KMFL 231127
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
627 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Monday)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Surface high pressure across the SE CONUS will continue to break
down as the broad area of low pressure over the Gulf continues to
strengthen and advect eastward towards the Florida Peninsula. As
the ridge breaks down, an overall weak pattern will be in place on
Sunday, leading to calm winds and dry conditions across the
region. Temperatures are expected in the upper 70s today, but may
reach 80 in some spots over the interior.

As we move into Monday, the potent shortwave and broad area of
low pressure approaches and begins to push through the Florida
Peninsula. At the same time, a strong upper level jet will
maintain presence over the area and influence vertical ascent via
upper level divergence. The latest guidance suite is in pretty
good agreement that this system will be disorganized as it
approaches and pushes through the region Monday afternoon into
Monday night. The exact track still has some uncertainty with it
as the latest round of guidance has the low pressure track near
the Lake Okeechobee area or as far south as the southern tip of
the peninsula and the Keys. While this is not a significant gap,
the exact track of the low center will still play a key role
especially with the potential strength of thunderstorms as it
passes through the region as well as other hazards Monday
afternoon through Monday night. The farther south the low goes,
the thunderstorm threat will be reduced and it would be more of a
widespread rain event with the potential for locally heavy
rainfall to occur. If it were to take a track just to the north of
Lake Okeechobee, there would be the potential for increased
thunderstorm activity over the region along with the possibility
of some of these thunderstorms becoming strong and containing
gusty winds, hail, and heavy downpours. This will continue to be
monitored as the weekend progresses. In any event, chances of
showers and thunderstorms will increase especially heading into
Monday afternoon and Monday night across South Florida.

As of now, locations across South Florida can expect between 1-2
inches of rain during this event with a reasonable worst case
scenario of 2.5-3.5 inches. As the confidence with the track of
the low increases in the next day or so, these details will be
refined.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

The mid level shortwave will cross into the western Atlantic on
Tuesday as the area of low pressure strengthens as it heads
northeastward away from the region. While there still could be
some lingering showers and thunderstorms in the area on Tuesday
morning, a drying trend will gradually take place from northwest
to Southeast on Tuesday afternoon as high pressure builds back
into the region. This area of high pressure will bring back mainly
dry conditions through Wednesday as it pushes into the western
Atlantic. High temperatures towards the middle of the week will
generally rise into the upper 70s to around 80 across most areas.

Heading towards the end of the week, the latest guidance is
hinting at mid level troughing pushing through the Midwest and
across the Eastern Seaboard. At the surface, this would bring the
potential for another frontal passage across the region later on
Thursday into Friday. Uncertainty remains high for this part of
the forecast as it is towards the end of the forecast period,
however, it does look like this front would be in a weakening
state as it passes through the region with the best dynamics and
instability remaining well off to the north. The latest forecast
takes a blend of the models and reintroduces a slight chance of
showers mainly over the east coast and Atlantic waters for
Thursday into Friday. This will continue to be monitored as the
week progresses. High temperatures on Thursday will rise into the
upper 70s and lower 80s across most areas while cooler
temperatures could push into the region for Friday depending on
the timing of the cold front.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 620 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

VFR conditions prevail, although brief periods of SCT-BKN cigs
look likely for East Coast sites early this morning. Easterly to east-
southeasterly wind flow through much of the forecast period
except at APF where a Gulf sea breeze could bring onshore wind
flow to the terminal.

.MARINE...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

Mostly benign boating conditions prevail on Sunday with mostly dry
conditions outside of an isolated shower threat. Seas will be 1-3
feet in both the Atlantic and Gulf over the next few days. Rain
showers are expected to develop and increase quickly on Monday
with periods of rain and some gusty winds. Most of the rain looks
to fall between Monday afternoon and Monday night into Tuesday
morning.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1234 AM EST Sun Feb 23 2025

A high risk for rip currents continues across all Atlantic coast
beaches through Sunday evening as moderate onshore flow continues.
The rip risk will decrease starting Sunday night and into early
next week.

&&

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  67  77  66 /   0  10  80  70
West Kendall     79  62  78  63 /   0   0  80  70
Opa-Locka        78  65  78  64 /   0  10  80  70
Homestead        77  65  78  65 /   0   0  80  70
Fort Lauderdale  74  67  76  64 /  10   0  80  70
N Ft Lauderdale  75  66  76  64 /  10   0  80  70
Pembroke Pines   79  66  79  66 /   0   0  80  70
West Palm Beach  75  65  75  63 /   0   0  80  70
Boca Raton       76  65  76  64 /  10   0  80  70
Naples           79  63  74  64 /   0  20  80  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...High Rip Current Risk through this evening for FLZ168-172-173.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Redman
LONG TERM....Redman
AVIATION...ATV