380
FXUS62 KMFL 150504
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
104 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, AVIATION, MARINE, BEACHES...

.KEY MESSAGES...
Updated at 101 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

 - Heat Advisory for all of South FL today. Heat will remain a
   concern through the next week.

 - A moderate risk of rip currents is expected today along the
   east coast beaches.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

This weekend will feature surface high pressure over the northern
Gulf and another high over the western Atlantic. At the upper
levels, strong ridging centered over the deep South US will remain
in control. A upper level low will pass well to our south today.
Convection today will be primarily sea-breeze driven, with the
highest PoPs focused over inland and SW FL this afternoon into early
evening. High temps will be in the low to middle 90s. Combined with
dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s, peak heat indices will again top
out in the 105 to 110 range. A heat advisory will be in effect from
11 AM this morning until 7 PM this evening. Convection wanes around
sunset this evening, with mostly dry and warm conditions overnight.
Low temps will be in the middle 70s to lower 80s.

On Sunday, higher concentrations of Saharan dust are expected to
move into South FL. Forecast soundings show much drier air, with
PWAT values falling to around 1.3 inches. Outside of a few mid to
late day thunderstorms over the interior and around the lake region,
most of South FL will be dry and hot. High temps will be in the low
to mid 90s across the metro, and upper 90s over interior South FL.
Peak heat indices will approach advisory criteria again, so
additional headlines may be needed.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Saharan dust will continue to linger through the early part of next
week, which will continue to keep PoPs well below average through at
least Wednesday. As dust concentrations decrease across the area
late in the week, low level moisture is expected to increase and
PoPs will rebound to closer to seasonal norms.

Heat will continue to be a major story next week, with above average
temps expected to continue. High temps each day will range from the
low to mid 90s across the metro, to upper 90s over interior South
FL. Peat heat indices each day will approach or exceed advisory
criteria.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Scattered coastal showers this morning and then scattered
thunderstorms this afternoon into early evening over interior and
SW FL. SE winds 5-10 kts today, with a westerly Gulf breeze at APF
this afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Gentle to moderate southeasterly breeze is expected today across the
Atlantic waters, with gentle westerly winds for the Gulf waters.
Seas will be 2 ft or less. A few thunderstorms are possible over the
area waters today which may result in locally hazardous winds and
seas.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 101 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2026

Moderate east to southeast flow will result in an elevated risk of
rip currents today for the Atlantic beaches. The rip threat is
expected to decrease on Sunday.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  81  93  80 /  30   0   0   0
West Kendall     92  79  93  77 /  30   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        93  81  94  79 /  30   0   0   0
Homestead        93  80  93  79 /  30   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  92  81  92  79 /  20   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  92  81  93  80 /  20   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   93  80  93  79 /  30   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  93  79  94  78 /  30   0  10   0
Boca Raton       91  81  93  80 /  20   0   0   0
Naples           92  78  93  79 /  40  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>075-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CMF
LONG TERM....CMF
AVIATION...CMF