228
FXUS62 KMFL 220519
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
119 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(This Afternoon Through Tuesday)...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

This Afternoon Into Tonight...
High pressure over the Gulf will continue to move slowly westward
as a TUTT low over Central Atlantic Waters continues to move west
southwest towards the Bahamas.

This will allow for the steering flow to be southeast this
afternoon before going light and variable tonight. Therefore, the
east coast sea breezes will continue to develop and push across
South Florida while the west coast sea breeze remains over the
west coast metro areas. Isolated to scattered showers and
thunderstorms should develop along the sea breezes this afternoon
mainly over the interior/west coast areas before dissipating this
evening.

The east coast metro areas should remain dry this afternoon into
this evening before a few showers or even a thunderstorm develops
over the Atlantic waters late tonight and works into the east
coast metro areas before dissipating.

Temperatures this afternoon is still forecast to get into the
lower to mid 90s over the east coast areas and mid to upper 90s
over the interior/west coast. With the increasing PWAT values
leading to higher dew points, the Heat index readings are
still forecast to get into the 105 to 108 range over the east
coast metro areas and 107 to 112 over the interior/west coast
metro areas. Therefore, the Heat Advisory will remain in effect
until 6 PM EDT this evening for all of South Florida. Lows
tonight will also be in the mid to upper 70s over most areas
except around 80 over the east coast metro areas.

Tuesday and Tuesday Night...
The TUTT low will continue to move slowly westward towards
Florida from the Bahamas, as a non-tropical surface low develops
over the NW Bahamas and moves southwest into South Florida by
Tuesday night. This weather pattern will allow for the surface
flow to become more south/southwest over the region while the
steering flow will be more of a northwest to north direction.
Tropical moisture will also increase over the area on Tuesday and
by Tuesday night allowing for the PWAT values to get up to 2 to
2.1 inches.

The higher PWAT values will allow for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop over South Florida on Tuesday
and isolated to scattered coverage Tuesday night. The steering
flow will allow for the storm to move more of a east to southeast
direction over the region. The higher PWAT`s will also lead to
possible heavy rainfall across the area on Tuesday and Tuesday
night. Therefore, heavy rainfall wording will be added to the
forecast for Tuesday into Tuesday night.

Highs on Tuesday will be a little bit cooler due to the cloud
cover and the coverage of the showers and thunderstorms with highs
in the lower to mid 90s over most areas. The only exception is
over the east coast metro areas where highs will be around 90.
Heat index readings will be in the 100-105 range east coast areas
to around 105 over rest of South Florida. Lows Tuesday night will
be in the 70s over all of South Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Wednesday through next Sunday)
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

Wednesday Through Thursday...
The TUTT low will continue to move west southwest on Wednesday and
move through or just of South Florida. The TUTT low will then
continue to move west southwest into the Southern Gulf waters on
Thursday. The non-tropical low will also continue to move westward
and be in the Gulf waters by Wednesday. This will allow for the
steering flow to become more southerly on Wednesday before going
more southeast on Thursday over South Florida.

This weather pattern will keep the tropical moisture in place over
South Florida through Thursday allowing for scattered to numerous
showers and thunderstorms to develop each day with the highest
focus over the interior and western areas.

Highs each day will be mainly in the lower to mid 90s, except
around 90 east coast metro areas. Heat indices will be in mid 100s
over most areas, except lower 100s over the east coast metro
areas. Lows will be in the 70s except around 80 east coast metro
areas each night.

Next Weekend...
High pressure should build back into South Florida from the
Atlantic waters, as some Saharan dust works into the region from
the Deep Atlantic Waters especially Friday into Saturday. This
will limit the shower and thunderstorm coverage over South Florida
and increase the highs across the region. Therefore, POPS will be
below average over the region for next weekend with isolated to
scattered coverage at best.

Highs next weekend is forecast to get into the mid to upper 90s
over most areas, except for the east coast metro areas where they
will be in the lower to mid 90s. This will allow for the Heat
indices to get up into the mid 100s over all of South Florida next
weekend. Will continue to monitor the heat forecast for next
weekend through this week.

Lows will remain in the 70s over most areas, except around 80 over
the east coast metro areas next weekend.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 119 AM EDT Tue Jul 22 2025

VFR will prevail through the TAF period. Winds will be light and
variable the rest of the night. These will increase to around 10 kts
out of the ESE for the east coast terminals and W/WSW for KAPF.
Showers and thunderstorms expected to develop in the afternoon and
evening, with VCTS after 17-18Z. However, most of the storms
expected to stay west of east coast terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The winds will be light from the southeast this afternoon before
going more southerly tonight to a south/southwest direction on
Tuesday and Tuesday night. The winds will then become more
east/southeast for the middle to end of this week. Wind speeds
will be 10 knots or less over the local waters through Tuesday
night before increasing to 10 to 15 knots for the middle to end of
next week.

Seas will be 2 feet or less in both the Atlantic and Gulf waters
through Tuesday night. The Atlantic seas will then increase to
2 to 3 feet by end of the week while the Gulf seas will remain at
2 feet or less. Therefore, boating conditions looks good over the
local waters outside of any showers or thunderstorms.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 1259 PM EDT Mon Jul 21 2025

The threat of rip currents will remain low through middle of this
week along both the Gulf and Atlantic beaches. The threat of rip
currents will then be increasing for the second half of this week
along the Atlantic beaches due to the increase east/southeast wind
speeds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            92  77  90  78 /  70  50  70  30
West Kendall     92  76  91  77 /  70  50  70  30
Opa-Locka        92  77  90  78 /  70  50  70  30
Homestead        90  78  89  79 /  60  50  70  30
Fort Lauderdale  90  78  89  79 /  60  50  70  30
N Ft Lauderdale  91  77  90  78 /  70  50  70  30
Pembroke Pines   91  77  90  78 /  70  50  70  30
West Palm Beach  91  76  90  77 /  60  50  70  30
Boca Raton       91  78  89  79 /  60  50  70  30
Naples           90  77  89  78 /  70  40  80  40

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...BNB
LONG TERM....BNB
AVIATION...Redman