659
FXUS62 KMFL 230702
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
202 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE, BEACHES, FIRE WEATHER...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Deep mid level troughing over the area will gradually slide into the
western Atlantic today and the mid level flow will become more zonal
heading into tonight. A weaker mid level trough over the Gulf of
Mexico will slowly push towards the Florida Peninsula as Sunday
progresses. At the surface, a large area of high pressure centered
over the Southeast will gradually slide eastward as the weekend
progresses. This feature will keep dry conditions in place for today
and Sunday. A light to moderate north to northwesterly wind flow
across the region today will veer and become northeasterly as Sunday
progresses due to high pressure shifting eastward. High temperatures
this afternoon will still remain on the cooler side as cold air
advection continues along the northwesterly wind flow. These high
temperatures will range from the upper 60s across the Lake
Okeechobee region to the lower 70s elsewhere. Low temperatures
tonight will drop into the mid to upper 40s across the Lake
Okeechobee region to the lower 50s across the interior as well as
coastal areas of Southwest Florida. Lows across the east coast metro
areas will drop into the mid to upper 50s. Temperatures will begin a
moderating trend on Sunday due to the northeasterly wind shift. This
will allow for high temperatures on Sunday to rise into the mid to
upper 70s across most of South Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Dry and benign conditions are forecast to continue through the
upcoming week. The body of high pressure will settle into the
western Atlantic, resulting in a slow warming trend due to a veer in
low level flow. With a east/northeasterly flow next week,
temperatures will rebound to near, to just above, climatological
normals. This will result in afternoon highs in the low to mid 80s
and overnight lows in the 50s/60s throughout the week. Temperatures
are forecast to peak on Thanksgiving and Friday. Ensemble models are
suggesting that as a deep mid-level trough drifts across the eastern
CONUS late next week, an accompanying frontal boundary will bring
cooler air and moisture into the southeastern US. However, low
confidence and time for change.

&&

.AVIATION...
(06Z TAFS)
Issued at 1229 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

VFR conditions will prevail throughout the forecast period. A
light northwesterly wind flow overnight will increase out of the
north northwest to around 10 kts late Saturday morning.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

Conditions will gradually improve across the local waters today as a
moderate north to northwesterly wind flow continues over the region
along with a subsiding northerly swell in the Atlantic. As the
weekend progresses, these winds will gradually shift and become
northeasterly tonight into Sunday. Seas across the Atlantic waters
will range from 3 to 6 feet on Saturday and then they will drop and
range between 2 to 4 feet on Sunday. Seas across the Gulf waters
will range between 2 to 4 feet on Saturday before dropping to 2 feet
or less on Sunday.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

A moderate risk of rip currents will remain in place across the
Atlantic Coast beaches today due to the lingering effects of a
northerly swell. The risk of rip currents may remain elevated mainly
across the Palm Beaches heading into early next week as onshore flow
develops.

&&

.FIRE WEATHER...
Issued at 201 AM EST Sat Nov 23 2024

As high pressure centered off to the north continues to bring a dry
north to northwesterly wind flow over the region today, minimum
relative humidity values could drop into the lower to mid 30s across
a good portion of the area this afternoon. The 20 foot wind speeds
will remain below 15 mph across all of South Florida, therefore, no
fire weather headlines will be needed today.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            73  56  77  65 /   0   0   0   0
West Kendall     74  51  79  60 /   0   0   0   0
Opa-Locka        74  54  79  63 /   0   0   0   0
Homestead        74  55  78  64 /   0   0   0   0
Fort Lauderdale  72  57  76  66 /   0   0   0   0
N Ft Lauderdale  72  57  77  65 /   0   0   0   0
Pembroke Pines   74  55  80  64 /   0   0   0   0
West Palm Beach  71  56  77  65 /   0   0   0   0
Boca Raton       72  56  78  65 /   0   0   0   0
Naples           71  50  77  58 /   0   0   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...Small Craft Advisory until 4 AM EST early this morning for
     AMZ650-651-670-671.

GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...CWC
LONG TERM....JS
AVIATION...CWC