187
FXUS62 KMFL 032248
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
648 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

...New AVIATION...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 119 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Model solutions and sfc analyses depict a retrograding sfc boundary
over the Florida Keys, slowly lifting northward across the southern
tip of the Florida peninsula during the weekend. Associated
rainbands will continue to stream across much of Miami-Dade county
through the early afternoon hours (as observed in earlier radar
data), then spreading across the rest of SoFlo and likely continue
through the late evening hours. Meanwhile, GFS and EURO remain in
fair agreement regarding a mid-lvl closed low drifting westward
across Florida and into the eastern Gulf, which will drag some
enhanced moisture into the southern half of the peninsula.

MFL sounding and model PWATs remain just over 2 inches through the
rest of the weekend with a vertically wet profile through 6km. Also,
latest probabilities show a 20-40% chance of isolated accumulations
exceeding 5 inches. Therefore, WPC is keeping the east coast metro
areas under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of excessive rainfall
today.

The wet pattern continue through the next several days with showers
and thunderstorms coverage becoming widespread at times, especially
during the afternoon and early evening hours. POPs/Wx grids carry
max values in the 60-70 percent range today, with particularly high
chances along coastal locations.

The increased cloud cover and shower activity should help in keeping
max temps in the mid to upper 80s, while overnight lows should stay
in the low to mid 70s across the whole area.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

An area of low pressure to the east of South Florida will continue
to support wet and unsettled conditions across the area through the
short term period. Satellite and radar imagery show the low sitting
between the Florida peninsula and the Bahamas early this morning,
and rain gauge data indicate the rainbands along the low dropped
widespread 1-3 inches of rain across southeast FL overnight, with
isolated spots up to 5 inches.

Model guidance shows this system very slowly drifting north-
northwest today into tomorrow, bringing repeated rounds of
rainfall across the region starting this afternoon and persisting
overnight. These additional rounds of rain could drop several more
inches over the area over the next 48 hours, especially if
training sets up over areas that already received several inches
of rain overnight, increasing the concerns for isolated urban and
flash flooding. Some portions of the East Coast metro could end up
seeing 4-6 inches between Friday and Saturday, , with the 00Z
HREF showing 40-50% chance that some isolated spots could exceed
those amounts over the 48 hour window. To that effect, WPC is
keeping East Coast metro under a Marginal Risk (level 1 of 4) of
Excessive Rainfall on Friday and Saturday.

Slightly lower temperatures forecast through the short term period
given greater cloud coverage and convective activity. Highs will top
out in the upper 80s and low 90s, while overnight lows will stay in
the low to mid 70s across the whole area.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

By Sunday, the aforementioned mid-level low will be northwest of our
area, but its influence will still be felt across South Florida,
where conditions will remain wet and unsettled to end the weekend
and into the start of the new week. Rounds of scattered to numerous
showers and a few thunderstorms will be possible each afternoon,
with POPs in the 50-70% range. Best chances are forecast to be
constrained north of Alligator Alley.

Surface high will being to build across the area early next week,
signaling a return to the more routine summertime regime of easterly
winds and afternoon showers and thunderstorms over the interior and
southwest.

High temperatures through the extended period will generally
range from the low to mid 90s, with overnight lows in the low-mid
70s across the interior and up to the upper 70s along the coasts.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 700 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Some periods of MVFR/IFR cigs/vis are still possible over the
Atlantic terminals until around 06Z with passing showers and
isolated thunderstorms. Winds should also remain breezy, gusty at
times, until 06Z. The ENE flow will again increase, gusty at
times after 15Z, along with another round of showers and
thunderstorms across the area Saturday afternoon.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 249 AM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Hazardous seas are expected to continue for the Atlantic waters over
the next few days as ongoing swell continues behind formerly
Hurricane Imelda. Seas will range from 6-9 feet today, and should
begin to subside tomorrow as swell diminishes.

Breezy easterly winds persist through tonight, ranging from 15-20
kts. Additionally, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected
each day. A Small Craft Advisory remains in effect for the Atlantic
waters and the northern Gulf waters through later tonight into
tomorrow.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 310 PM EDT Fri Oct 3 2025

Fresh onshore flow and elevated swell will result in a high risk
of rip currents and high surf heights (for Palm Beach county
beaches) through the weekend.

Minor to moderate coastal flooding will be possible along the
east coast this weekend and into next week during high tides due
to the upcoming king tide cycle, and ongoing E/NE swell.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            76  87  76  89 /  50  50  30  50
West Kendall     75  87  75  89 /  50  50  20  50
Opa-Locka        76  87  76  90 /  50  50  30  50
Homestead        75  87  75  89 /  50  50  30  40
Fort Lauderdale  75  85  76  88 /  50  50  40  50
N Ft Lauderdale  75  86  77  88 /  50  50  40  50
Pembroke Pines   76  89  77  91 /  50  50  40  60
West Palm Beach  75  85  75  88 /  50  60  50  50
Boca Raton       75  87  76  89 /  50  50  40  50
Naples           75  89  75  89 /  10  40  10  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Monday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday morning for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory until 4 AM EDT Sunday for FLZ168.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Sunday for AMZ650-670.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 AM EDT Saturday for AMZ651-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 2 PM EDT Saturday for GMZ656-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...ATV
LONG TERM....ATV
AVIATION...17