


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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622 FXUS62 KMFL 062225 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 625 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 ...New AVIATION... .SHORT TERM... (Rest of today through Monday) Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 An unstable atmosphere remains across South Florida as 15z RTMA data as well as recent ACARS data from area airports point to a saturated and instability laden low level boundary layer residing in place early this afternoon. Surface observations indicate this as well with temperatures currently in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the mid to upper 70s. Breezy southwesterly surface flow has developed as the region remains on the south-side of a decaying surface trough now located across the northern extent of the Florida Peninsula. Ample diurnal heating over the last several hours has kick started the development of a pinned Atlantic sea-breeze that remains directly overhead of the east coast metro this afternoon kept in place by the stronger southwesterly flow. This setup will result in the potential of a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon with the main threat of sub-severe wind gusts of 40-55mph and frequent cloud to ground lightning with the most robust cores. While lapse rates remain rather uninspiring, ample surface heating has resulted in surface based CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and DCAPE values of 800- 1000 J/kg. Combined with residual mid-level dry air and 500mb temperatures of -7C to -8C may result in the dual hazard of isolated strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with the most robust activity. The 12z HREF Localized Probability Matched Mean (LPMM) shows the potential of widespread accumulations under 1 inch across the east coast metro with the potential of a few localized spots receiving 2-3 inches. While storm motion should be transient enough today to preclude more significant flooding, it is not out of the realm of possibility for a non-zero threat of localized flooding across portions of the east coast metro. Forecast high temperatures remain in the low 90s this afternoon with the caveat that temperatures may vary widely in and around shower and thunderstorm activity. Overnight temps will range from the upper 70s along both coasts to inland locales in low 70s. A pattern change begins on Monday as the influences of a distant decaying Tropical Depression Chantal and the surface trough fade. Aloft, mid-level ridging will enhance during the day on Monday as the axis of ridging pivots over the Florida Peninsula. An enhancement of surface ridging over the western Atlantic waters into the region will result in light wind flow overland during the day which will act to focus the weather regime in the mesoscale. Given the propagation of both sea-breezes inland, the foci of mid to late morning activity will focus along both coasts before the bulk of thunderstorm development occurs inland over the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee region. With a relative lack of mid to upper level support, strong to severe thunderstorm chances will be limited, however, there will be enough instability in place to support the possibility of a few strong storms where sea breeze and other thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide over the interior and maximize localized ascent. The strongest thunderstorms will be capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures on Monday will generally rise to around 90 along the east coast, and into the lower to mid 90s across the interior as well as Southwest Florida. && .LONG TERM... (Monday night through Saturday) Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 The weather pattern during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame is starting to show signs of becoming more active again as the latest model guidance suite continues to show signs of a Tropical Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) approaching and slowly moving across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, South Florida will remain on the western edge of an area of high pressure centered in the western Atlantic. With the position of the surface ridge axis remaining draped near the region, this will allow for a light synoptic east to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place during this time frame. The TUTT will help to bring an extra source of lift and instability to the region starting on Tuesday as mid level temperatures start to drop. While the exact details still need to be ironed out, with 500mb temperatures potentially dropping to -8 to -9C across portions of the region, this could create the potential for some of the convection to become strong to marginally severe during peak diurnal heating hours each afternoon through Thursday. The convective pattern will still follow the usual diurnal summertime cycle with showers and thunderstorms initiating over the local waters and east coast during the morning hours before shifting towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon and early evening hours. The best chances for strong to marginally severe thunderstorm development will remain over the interior and west coast each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Tuesday through Thursday will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s. For the end of the week, the latest guidance suite is showing signs that the TUTT will eventually weaken during this time frame as mid level ridging tries to build back into the region. However, uncertainty during this time period is high as the guidance remains in disagreement as to how much of that mid level ridge actually builds into the region or if a general weakness in the ridge holds in place over the area. If the ridge builds in stronger, this may allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms to decrease a little bit heading into the end of the week and into the first part of the weekend. However, if the weakness holds in place, chances of showers and thunderstorms could remain elevated. In any event, with surface high pressure remaining parked over the region and southeasterly wind flow in place, the general summertime convective pattern will hold strong with the highest chances of showers and storms focusing over the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening hours. High temperatures for the end of the week will remain around climatological normals as they will range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across most areas. && .AVIATION... (00Z TAFS) Issued at 622 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 Isolated SHRA will continue to decrease in coverage after 00z with mostly VFR conditions expected overnight. Winds will remain light and variable through the early morning hours before veering onshore by 15z Monday. Added VCTS for all terminals by 18z as TSRA/SHRA activity is forecast to fire up along sea-breeze boundaries before pushing away from both coasts and terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025 A moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will remain in place across the local waters today. These winds will then diminish tonight and become gentle across all local waters heading into Monday and Tuesday. While these winds will generally remain southeasterly across the Atlantic waters early next week, they may become more west to southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters will range from 2 to 3 feet today and tonight before gradually diminishing to 2 feet or less as Monday progresses. Seas across the Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day through the early portion of the week. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 78 91 78 90 / 10 40 10 30 West Kendall 75 91 74 90 / 10 40 10 30 Opa-Locka 79 93 79 92 / 20 40 10 30 Homestead 78 91 77 89 / 10 30 10 30 Fort Lauderdale 78 89 78 88 / 20 40 10 30 N Ft Lauderdale 78 91 78 90 / 20 40 10 30 Pembroke Pines 80 94 80 93 / 20 40 10 30 West Palm Beach 76 91 77 90 / 30 40 10 30 Boca Raton 77 92 78 91 / 20 40 10 30 Naples 79 91 77 92 / 10 50 20 60 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Hadi LONG TERM....CWC AVIATION...Hadi