622
FXUS62 KMFL 062225
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
625 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Rest of today through Monday)
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

An unstable atmosphere remains across South Florida as 15z RTMA data
as well as recent ACARS data from area airports point to a saturated
and instability laden low level boundary layer residing in place
early this afternoon. Surface observations indicate this as well
with temperatures currently in the upper 80s with dewpoints in the
mid to upper 70s. Breezy southwesterly surface flow has developed as
the region remains on the south-side of a decaying surface trough
now located across the northern extent of the Florida Peninsula.
Ample diurnal heating over the last several hours has kick started
the development of a pinned Atlantic sea-breeze that remains
directly overhead of the east coast metro this afternoon kept in
place by the stronger southwesterly flow. This setup will result in
the potential of a few strong thunderstorms this afternoon with the
main threat of sub-severe wind gusts of 40-55mph and frequent cloud
to ground lightning with the most robust cores. While lapse rates
remain rather uninspiring, ample surface heating has resulted in
surface based CAPE values of 3000-4000 J/kg and DCAPE values of 800-
1000 J/kg. Combined with residual mid-level dry air and 500mb
temperatures of -7C to -8C may result in the dual hazard of isolated
strong wind gusts and frequent lightning with the most robust
activity. The 12z HREF Localized Probability Matched Mean (LPMM)
shows the potential of widespread accumulations under 1 inch across
the east coast metro with the potential of a few localized spots
receiving 2-3 inches. While storm motion should be transient enough
today to preclude more significant flooding, it is not out of the
realm of possibility for a non-zero threat of localized flooding
across portions of the east coast metro. Forecast high temperatures
remain in the low 90s this afternoon with the caveat that
temperatures may vary widely in and around shower and thunderstorm
activity.

Overnight temps will range from the upper 70s along both coasts to
inland locales in low 70s. A pattern change begins on Monday as the
influences of a distant decaying Tropical Depression Chantal and the
surface trough fade. Aloft, mid-level ridging will enhance during
the day on Monday as the axis of ridging pivots over the Florida
Peninsula. An enhancement of surface ridging over the western
Atlantic waters into the region will result in light wind flow
overland during the day which will act to focus the weather regime
in the mesoscale. Given the propagation of both sea-breezes inland,
the foci of mid to late morning activity will focus along both
coasts before the bulk of thunderstorm development occurs inland
over the Everglades and Lake Okeechobee region. With a relative lack
of mid to upper level support, strong to severe thunderstorm chances
will be limited, however, there will be enough instability in place
to support the possibility of a few strong storms where sea breeze
and other thunderstorm outflow boundaries collide over the interior
and maximize localized ascent. The strongest thunderstorms will be
capable of producing gusty winds and heavy downpours. High
temperatures on Monday will generally rise to around 90 along the
east coast, and into the lower to mid 90s across the interior as
well as Southwest Florida.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Monday night through Saturday)
Issued at 136 AM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

The weather pattern during the Tuesday through Thursday time frame
is starting to show signs of becoming more active again as the
latest model guidance suite continues to show signs of a Tropical
Upper Tropospheric Trough (TUTT) approaching and slowly moving
across South Florida during this time frame. At the surface, South
Florida will remain on the western edge of an area of high pressure
centered in the western Atlantic. With the position of the surface
ridge axis remaining draped near the region, this will allow for a
light synoptic east to southeasterly wind flow to remain in place
during this time frame. The TUTT will help to bring an extra source
of lift and instability to the region starting on Tuesday as mid
level temperatures start to drop. While the exact details still need
to be ironed out, with 500mb temperatures potentially dropping to -8
to -9C across portions of the region, this could create the
potential for some of the convection to become strong to marginally
severe during peak diurnal heating hours each afternoon through
Thursday. The convective pattern will still follow the usual diurnal
summertime cycle with showers and thunderstorms initiating over the
local waters and east coast during the morning hours before shifting
towards the interior and west coast during the afternoon and early
evening hours. The best chances for strong to marginally severe
thunderstorm development will remain over the interior and west
coast each afternoon Tuesday through Thursday where sea breeze and
other mesoscale boundaries collide. This will continue to be
monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures on Tuesday
through Thursday will rise into the upper 80s and lower 90s.

For the end of the week, the latest guidance suite is showing signs
that the TUTT will eventually weaken during this time frame as mid
level ridging tries to build back into the region. However,
uncertainty during this time period is high as the guidance remains
in disagreement as to how much of that mid level ridge actually
builds into the region or if a general weakness in the ridge holds
in place over the area. If the ridge builds in stronger, this may
allow for chances of showers and thunderstorms to decrease a little
bit heading into the end of the week and into the first part of the
weekend. However, if the weakness holds in place, chances of showers
and thunderstorms could remain elevated. In any event, with surface
high pressure remaining parked over the region and southeasterly
wind flow in place, the general summertime convective pattern will
hold strong with the highest chances of showers and storms focusing
over the interior and west coast during the afternoon and evening
hours. High temperatures for the end of the week will remain around
climatological normals as they will range from the upper 80s to
lower 90s across most areas.

&&

.AVIATION...
(00Z TAFS)
Issued at 622 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

Isolated SHRA will continue to decrease in coverage after 00z with
mostly VFR conditions expected overnight. Winds will remain light
and variable through the early morning hours before veering
onshore by 15z Monday. Added VCTS for all terminals by 18z as
TSRA/SHRA activity is forecast to fire up along sea-breeze
boundaries before pushing away from both coasts and terminals.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 1204 PM EDT Sun Jul 6 2025

A moderate south to southwesterly wind flow will remain in place
across the local waters today. These winds will then diminish
tonight and become gentle across all local waters heading into
Monday and Tuesday. While these winds will generally remain
southeasterly across the Atlantic waters early next week, they may
become more west to southwesterly each afternoon across the Gulf
waters as the Gulf breeze develops. Seas across the Atlantic waters
will range from 2 to 3 feet today and tonight before gradually
diminishing to 2 feet or less as Monday progresses. Seas across the
Gulf waters will remain at 2 feet or less through the rest of the
weekend and into early next week. Scattered to numerous showers and
thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day
through the early portion of the week.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            78  91  78  90 /  10  40  10  30
West Kendall     75  91  74  90 /  10  40  10  30
Opa-Locka        79  93  79  92 /  20  40  10  30
Homestead        78  91  77  89 /  10  30  10  30
Fort Lauderdale  78  89  78  88 /  20  40  10  30
N Ft Lauderdale  78  91  78  90 /  20  40  10  30
Pembroke Pines   80  94  80  93 /  20  40  10  30
West Palm Beach  76  91  77  90 /  30  40  10  30
Boca Raton       77  92  78  91 /  20  40  10  30
Naples           79  91  77  92 /  10  50  20  60

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...None.
AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Hadi
LONG TERM....CWC
AVIATION...Hadi