693
FXUS62 KMFL 181357
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
957 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

...New UPDATE...

.UPDATE...
Issued at 955 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

The current forecast remains on track. Rain chances remain low for
today with PoPs in the 20-30% range or lower, highest for
locations closer to the Florida Keys as a stationary front starts
to retrograde a little northwards. Winds remain the main story for
today, sustaining 10-20 mph and gusting 20-30 mph.

&&

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Saturday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Most of South FL will see continued dry and pleasant conditions
through Saturday, though a frontal boundary will briefly
retrograde back north from the Keys into far southern areas of the
peninsula today. Increased moisture and instability associated
with this boundary could support isolated to scattered showers
(15-30% PoPs) today, primarily along and south of the I-75 /
Alligator Alley corridor. On Saturday, the front and associated
moisture will gradually be pushed south again, only supporting
isolated showers (10-20% PoPs) across far southern areas. With the
tight pressure gradient over the area, breezy northeast winds
continue, especially along the coast.

High temperatures will remain around to slightly below normal
today and Saturday, reaching the low to mid 80s across South
Florida. Dewpoints will rise back into the upper 60s, so it won`t
feel as refreshing as it did on Thursday, when dewpoints were in
the upper 50s to low 60s. Tonight`s lows will range from around 70
over the interior and Gulf Coast, to the mid to upper 70s over
the East Coast.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Saturday night through Thursday)
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Strong and expansive surface high pressure will remain over the
Southeast U.S. from late this weekend through most of next week as
a frontal boundary gets pushed south and washes out over the
Florida Keys. A mid to upper level trough will also drop across
the Southeast US and over the Florida Peninsula from late this
weekend into early next week. Overall, this weather pattern will
support typical dry season conditions in South Florida, with only
a few isolated showers or weak thunderstorms across the Atlantic
waters and East Coast metro each day due to some low to mid level
moisture working in from over the Atlantic. Winds will continue to
be a little breezy out of the east-northeast each day.

Temperatures during the long term will be around to slightly
above normal, with highs generally in the mid 80s across South
Florida each day. Overnight lows will range from the upper 60s to
low 70s over the interior and Gulf Coast, with mid to upper 70s
over the East Coast.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 709 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Mainly VFR conditions through this TAF period. NE winds 10-15 kts
with gusts of 20-25 kts. Lowest ceilings generally 3000-5000 ft.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Hazardous marine conditions expected through at least Sunday.
NE/E winds 20-25 kts with gusts getting close to Gale force today
and tonight, mainly over the Atlantic waters. Seas of 6-10 ft in
the Atlantic and 4-7 ft in the Gulf through this weekend.
Conditions should begin to gradually improve early next week as
winds lighten a bit over the region. A few thunderstorms are
possible over the Atlantic waters today, and then again late this
weekend into next week.

&&

.BEACHES...
Issued at 221 AM EDT Fri Oct 18 2024

Strong NE flow will result in a high risk of rip currents for the
Atlantic beaches through the weekend. In addition, dangerous surf
conditions are likely along the Palm Beach and Broward beaches
today and Saturday with 7-9 ft waves in the surf zone.

King tides will result in minor to moderate coastal flooding
along the Atlantic coast each day through the weekend during the
high tide cycles.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            80  76  83  74 /  20  20  10  10
West Kendall     81  75  84  71 /  30  20  10  10
Opa-Locka        82  76  84  73 /  20  20  10  10
Homestead        81  77  83  74 /  30  30  20   0
Fort Lauderdale  80  76  82  74 /  10  10  10  10
N Ft Lauderdale  81  76  83  74 /  10  10  10  10
Pembroke Pines   83  77  85  74 /  10  10  10  10
West Palm Beach  81  76  84  74 /  10  10   0  10
Boca Raton       82  76  84  74 /  10  10   0  10
Naples           82  73  85  69 /  10  10   0   0

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Coastal Flood Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Rip Current Risk through Sunday evening for FLZ168-172-173.

     High Surf Advisory from 2 PM this afternoon to 2 PM EDT Saturday
     for FLZ168-172.

AM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Saturday for AMZ610.

     Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for AMZ630-650-651-
     670-671.

GM...Small Craft Advisory until 8 PM EDT Sunday for GMZ656-657-676.

&&

$$

SHORT TERM...Culver
LONG TERM....Culver
AVIATION...Redman