


Area Forecast Discussion
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
Issued by NWS Miami, FL
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444 FXUS62 KMFL 100533 AFDMFL Area Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Miami FL 133 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 ...New SHORT TERM, LONG TERM, MARINE... .SHORT TERM... (Today through Friday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Latest analysis and ensembles highlight large scale high pressure ridging maintaining itself across the region. A couple of weak disturbances are currently present nearby that will help influence the local weather mainly today. A nearby surface trough near off the Atlantic coast will advect northeastward and additionally a tropical upper tropospheric trough (TUTT) is presently located near Cuba which will advect northwest into the Gulf before dissipating in the next couple days. While neither of these features are strong, they will help the continuous infiltration of deep tropical moisture across South Florida and also provide extra sources of lift underneath the ridge. Overall, with the ridge being the most dominant feature, this will help suppress most of the vertical extent that convection grow. Nevertheless, diurnal showers and thunderstorms will develop primarily in the afternoon during peak heating and as the sea breezes move inland. Additional showers and thunderstorms will form as a result of the aforementioned disturbances, but most of that associated convection is expected to stay offshore. However, as the surface trough/mid-level disturbance in the Atlantic/Northern Caribbean region advects northeastward, there will be chances for some early morning showers and storms for far southeastern Florida, mainly for Miami-Dade county areas. By the afternoon hours, this area of low pressure should be making its way northeastward and away from the region. While there is not a high chance for severe weather given the robust ridge, 500mb temps will still be between -7C to -9C and result in some steeper lapse rates that could support some stronger updrafts. Furthermore, model soundings highlight DCAPE over 1000 J/kg, which also supports the possibility for some stronger winds via downbursts. Therefore, a couple of stronger to marginally severe storms cannot be ruled out, particularly for interior regions where the strongest convergence occurs. The pattern will remain largely unchanged for Friday with the TUTT continuing to spin just off to the south and perhaps providing for some earl morning convection again. Beyond that, the focus will again be on afternoon showers and storms that form as a result of peak diurnal heating and the sea breezes. High temperatures the next couple days are expected to reach the low to mid 90s for most areas with upper 80s in spots immediately along the coasts and beaches. && .LONG TERM... (Friday night through Wednesday) Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 For the upcoming weekend, large scale high pressure will continue to dominate the weather pattern with a ridge aloft and surface high pressure nearby as well. Ultimately, this will result in a typical summertime pattern continuing across South Florida with convection being mainly driven by sea breeze development. The usual diurnal pattern of convection for this time of year will remain in place as shower and thunderstorm activity starts to develop over the local waters and the east coast during the morning hours before shifting towards the interior and Southwest Florida during the afternoon and evening hours. Some storms could still become strong each afternoon mainly over Southwest Florida where sea breeze and other mesoscale boundaries collide and lift is maximized. The strongest storms could contain gusty winds and heavy downpours. High temperatures through the weekend will generally range from the upper 80s along the east coast to the lower 90s across Southwest Florida. Moving into the early to middle portions of next week, the forecast starts to become a little bit more uncertain as the mid level ridge pushes northwestward into the Gulf and expands northward into the Midwest as well as the Mississippi River Valley. At the same time, another mid level and upper level disturbance to the east will begin to push towards the Southeast coast. While the general diurnal pattern of convection will look to remain in place, with rather light steering flow aloft combined with light winds trying to become more southerly at the surface, this may help increase the chance of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame. The exact details still need to be ironed out and will depend heavily on the track and evolution of this mid level disturbance as it pushes towards the Southeast coast. Guidance is not in good agreement regarding its strength and evolution at this time. For now, the latest forecast increases the chances of showers and thunderstorms during this time frame, however, the highest chances each afternoon are kept over the interior and Southwest Florida. This will continue to be monitored as the week progresses. High temperatures early next week will generally range from the upper 80s to lower 90s across the region. && .AVIATION... (06Z TAFS) Issued at 105 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 Generally VFR prevails for the 06Z TAF cycle. Light and variable winds for the rest of the night will increase out of the SE by late morning along with some isolated showers possible near the east coast terminals. VCTS for the afternoon before activity moves inland. At KAPF, winds increase out of the SW after 16Z with VCTS after 19-20Z. Brief MVFR or lower CIGs are possible if any storms move directly over terminals. && .MARINE... Issued at 131 AM EDT Thu Jul 10 2025 A gentle to moderate southeasterly flow will be present across the Atlantic waters through the end of the week. Meanwhile, a lighter and more variable wind flow will take place across the Gulf waters through this same time frame. Seas across all of the local waters will generally remain at 2 feet or less. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms will be possible across the local waters each day. && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... Miami 90 80 89 80 / 60 40 50 10 West Kendall 90 76 89 77 / 60 40 50 10 Opa-Locka 92 80 92 80 / 60 40 50 10 Homestead 90 80 89 80 / 60 40 50 20 Fort Lauderdale 89 80 89 80 / 60 40 50 10 N Ft Lauderdale 90 80 89 80 / 60 30 50 10 Pembroke Pines 94 82 93 82 / 60 30 50 10 West Palm Beach 91 79 90 79 / 50 30 60 10 Boca Raton 92 79 91 80 / 60 30 50 10 Naples 92 77 92 76 / 50 30 80 20 && .MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... FL...None. AM...None. GM...None. && $$ SHORT TERM...Redman LONG TERM....Redman AVIATION...Redman