536
FXUS62 KMFL 021111
AFDMFL

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Miami FL
711 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

...New AVIATION...

.SHORT TERM...
(Today through Sunday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Not a lot of changes anticipated for the short term forecast. The
overall synoptic scenario will be defined by a broad high pressure
system expanding over the NE CONUS, while a mid/upper level
trough/low complex pushes an associated sfc boundary into the
Florida panhandle today.  Meanwhile, high pressure remains in
control of the rest of the Florida peninsula, keeping a generally
seasonal weather pattern across SoFlo through the rest of the
weekend.

Expect mainly afternoon scattered showers and thunderstorms each
day, driven mainly by diurnal heating cycle and sea breezes acting
as focal points for the deepest convection. The prevailing SSE flow
will keep POPs around 30 percent for the Atlantic coast locations
early in the afternoon, and in the 50-60 percent range for interior
and the Lake region as sea breezes push inland. A few early evening
showers may linger around coastal locations.

Concerns about heat impacts continue for the weekend with latest NBM
temps low to mid 90s, with possible upper 90s in some locations.
Highest heat index values may again reach the 105-109 range this
afternoon, for which an advisory will again be in effect. This
decision is based on the continuing trend/similarities in
temp/heat index pattern from previous days, unless upcoming model
guidance shows otherwise. Nighttime lows will remain mild, in the
mid 70s inland, and in the upper 70s to around 80 closer to the
coasts.

&&

.LONG TERM...
(Sunday night through Friday)
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Latest deterministic guidance shows better agreement in the
development of a deeper trough aloft over the extreme SE CONUS,
which drifts further southward and into the NE Gulf waters early
next week. This will bring enhanced favorable upper level conditions
for deeper convection and stronger thunderstorms through much of the
long term. Overall, the weather pattern will follow the same diurnal
cycle form the short term, with the bulk of convective activity
during the afternoon through early evening hours.

POPs/Wx coverage increase each day, with 50-70 percent by mid week,
and 60-80 percent to close the work week. Model PWATs show possible
values of 2 inches or higher, which may result in localized heavy
downpours, especially with slow-moving cells. Main hazards will be
frequent lightning strikes, damaging wind gusts, and increased
potential for large hail.

In terms of temperatures, afternoon max values will remain above
normals through the long term. Expect low 90s for much of the east
coast, and mid-upper 90s for inland areas and the Lake region.
Nighttime lows should remain in the mid 70s inland to around 80 near
the coasts. Heat index values of 105-110 are possible through at
least the middle of next week.

&&

.AVIATION...
(12Z TAFS)
Issued at 707 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Light and variable winds currently will gradually enhance out of a
southeasterly direction by late morning. A gulf breeze will also
develop at KAPF, veering winds onshore. SHRA/TSRA this afternoon is
forecast to remain mainly inland away from all terminals through
the early evening hours. Light and variable wind flow returns to
all area terminals after sunset.

&&

.MARINE...
Issued at 310 AM EDT Sat Aug 2 2025

Expect light to moderate south-southeasterly winds to continue
through the rest of the weekend. Only exception will be with Gulf
breezes bringing a shift to west-southwesterly flow winds over the
west coast each afternoon. Seas should remain around 1-2 ft, except
around thunderstorms, which could produce brief periods of rough
seas and gusty winds.

&&

.PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS...
Miami            93  80  93  81 /  20  10  30  20
West Kendall     94  77  93  78 /  30  10  30  20
Opa-Locka        95  80  95  80 /  20  10  30  10
Homestead        92  78  92  80 /  20  10  20  10
Fort Lauderdale  92  80  92  81 /  20  10  30  20
N Ft Lauderdale  93  80  93  81 /  30  10  20  20
Pembroke Pines   96  82  96  83 /  20  10  20  10
West Palm Beach  94  78  93  79 /  30  20  30  20
Boca Raton       95  79  95  80 /  30  10  30  20
Naples           92  80  93  79 /  40  20  30  20

&&

.MFL WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES...
FL...Heat Advisory from 11 AM this morning to 7 PM EDT this evening
     for FLZ063-066>068-070>074-168-172>174.

AM...None.
GM...None.
&&

$$

SHORT TERM...17
LONG TERM....17
AVIATION...Hadi